ISRAELI DEPUTY FM FLAGS TOP CONCERNS: QME AND MIDDLE EAST NUCLEAR FREE ZONE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000193



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2035

TAGS: PARM, PREL, NATO, IS, XF, GM

SUBJECT: ISRAELI DEPUTY FM FLAGS TOP CONCERNS: QME AND

MIDDLE EAST NUCLEAR FREE ZONE



Classified By: Political M/C George Glass for reasons 1.4 (b/d)



1. (S) Summary. During a February 6 meeting on the margins

of the Munich Security Conference, Israeli Deputy FM Ayalon

told U/S Tauscher that his country's top security concerns

were the Qualitative Military Edge (QME) and proposals for a

Middle East Nuclear Free Zone. Ayalon also said that his

government would provide a response to a USG nonpaper on

elements for dealing with Egypt and Middle East issues at the

upcoming NPT Review Conference. Tauscher emphasized the need

to engage with Egypt, but promised that the U.S. would not

put Israel on the spot in the course of its bilateral

discussions with Cairo. Tauscher also suggested that the

P3 Israel first agree on the scope of an agreement and then,

perhaps, engage directly with Egyptian President Mubarak.

End Summary.



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NPT Revcon and Middle East Nuclear Free Zone

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2. (S) Tauscher expressed concern about the prospects for a

successful 2010 NPT Review Conference in light of the row

over Iran's nuclear program and Egypt's controversial

proposals on Middle East nuclear issues. In particular,

Tauscher noted that Egypt had repeatedly disrupted prior

RevCons over this issue without being made to pay a price.

This year, she said, the USG wanted to be proactive and has

begun engaging Egypt early in order to find a way forward.

However, Tauscher emphasized that the U.S. would consult with

Tel Aviv and not put Israel in a difficult position during

the course of bilateral talks with Cairo. The goal, she

said, would be to convince Egypt to abandon its normal

approach to these issues and engage in a more productive

dialogue on issues of concern in the Middle East and support

U.S. objectives.



3. (S) Ayalon lamented continuing recalcitrance by Egyptian

FM Aboul-Gheit on this issue and asked whether the U.S. had

taken up this discussion directly with President Mubarak.

Tauscher underscored that the U.S. had not yet engaged

actively with Mubarak in order to first come to agreement

with the P3 (U.S., UK, France) and Israel. Drilling down on

tactics, Tauscher stressed that the U.S. did not intend to

offer Egypt a compromise solution all at once but, instead,

would offer different components contained in the elements

papers during the course of negotiations. She also

emphasized the need to reach agreement among the P3 Israel by

the end of March -- at the latest. April, Tauscher stressed,

would be too late to successfully engage with Egypt before

the NPT Revcon in May. As a result, the USG hoped for

Israeli comments to its proposed negotiating strategy soon.

Ayalon thanked U/S Tauscher for the clarification on the U.S.

approach and promised to provide answers on the U.S. elements

paper. He noted that Tel Aviv had been concerned that the

U.S. would provide the whole paper to Egyptian officials, who

could have pocketed those suggestions as an opening position.



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Missile Defense

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4. (S) Ayalon asked for an update on U.S. missle defense

efforts as well as advances in MD in the Gulf states.

Tauscher noted the recent agreement by Romania to host U.S.

SM-3s as part of the Phased, Adaptive Approach and said the

USG was working on a location for radar. Regarding MD in the

Gulf states, Tauscher noted that UAE was acquiring THAADs,

and that Kuwaiti, Bahraini, and Qatari had interest in

Patriot missiles. Ayalon noted that Israel was working on

its MD technology as well.



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Russia Post START and Nuclear Treaties

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5. (S) In response to questions about progress on concluding

a new START agreement, Tauscher said the U.S. and Russia were

about "95 percent" of the way there. Specifically, she

noted, the technical annexes were cumbersome and were taking

longer than expected. Tauscher also conveyed her expectation



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that post-START would likely be the only defense treaty

ratified by the U.S. in 2010. The CTBT, she said would

likely meet with lukewarm support in Congress this year.

Meanwhile, Pakistan continued to block the start of FMCT

negotiations in the Conference on Disarmament.



6. (U) This cable was cleared with U/S Tauscher.

Delawie