FDP DIZZY FROM IDENTITY CRISIS AND COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000184 SIPDIS EUR FOR CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2020 TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: FDP DIZZY FROM IDENTITY CRISIS AND COALITION ANIMOSITY REF: A. BERLIN 164 ¶B. BERLIN 153 Classified By: MINISTER-COUNSELOR FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS GEORGE GLASS FO R REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Will Merkel defend Westerwelle? The German media wants to know. After one hundred days in office, poignant questions are percolating as to how prepared the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) is to govern the country within the current coalition. The FDP has suffered a major drop (from 14.6% to 8 percent) in the polls since the September 27 elections, a situation exacerbated by its increased frustration with its Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) coalition partners. The party's thin leadership veneer has become weathered, with the party relying on chairman and Foreign Minister Westerwelle to articulate domestic policy. Determined to stop the popularity free fall, Westerwelle has resorted to inflammatory statements to build profile, but which may further tarnish his party and stoke coalition discord. His "cry havoc" strategy may not be working in a time of economic distress. This dramatic situation comes less than three months before elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, where current polls show the governing CDU-FDP coalition has lost its majority were elections held today. Whether Westerwelle can reverse momentum prior to the elections will prove critical to the national coalition's functionality. End Summary. THE PREMATURE END OF A LOVE AFFAIR -------------- ¶2. (C) The FDP's approval ratings as of February 5 had dropped to eight percent, leaving the party at the bottom rung of the political party tables behind the Greens (17%) and The Left Party. This has occurred just four months after achieving its historic electoral success of 14.6 percent. (Note: Exactly one year ago, the party was polling at 18 percent. End note.) Reacting to the startling news, Westerwelle quickly switched gears from cautious foreign minister to risk-taking party chairman. He convened an emergency session of the Party's Executive Committee to plumb the FDP's polling plight, coalition infighting, and the controversial government law to reduce sales taxes on hotel stays. Westerwelle and FDP Economics Minister Bruederle cracked the whip urging committee members to sharpen their profile and aggressively rebuff attacks from the opposition and from within the government coalition. FDP campaign strategist Helmut Metzner told POLOFF February 12 that Westerwelle would follow his belief that diplo-speak should be left to his role as foreign minister, whereas he would use straight-talk in the world of domestic politics. ¶3. (C) Westerwelle may have taken this to an extreme, however. Reacting to the Constitutional Court's February decision that the government was not providing enough money to welfare recipients, Westerwelle said that promising people prosperity without work would encourage Germans to indulge in "late Roman decadence," and that working people "are increasingly becoming the idiots of the nation." His comments have met with icy criticism from the CDU/CSU as well as opposition parties, with CDU General Secretary Groehe calling on Westerwelle to refrain from populist and inflammatory rhetoric. Chancellor Merkel has distanced herself from Westerwelle's statements. Westerwelle has called for a parliamentary debate on the matter, which may prove to be even more polarizing, and could damage the FDP further. ¶4. (C) At a February 8 luncheon hosted by the Ambassador for seven FDP parliamentarians, including the FDP's Defense Spokesperson Rainer Stinner, Disarmament Spokesperson Elke Hoff, and the MFA Deputy Director, Policy Planning Staff, Robert von Rimscha, it was clear that the FDP is unsettled by its current poll rut and its inability to devise an effective communications strategy. FDP parliamentarian and human rights spokesperson Marina Schuster blamed the party's poor non-existent communication strategy after the negotiation of the coalition agreement for the party's poor start. Schuster was especially worried by the potential damage the party had incurred with the party's base over its inability to articulate a vision and market its policy successes. Hoff blamed her party's difficulties on their prolonged stay in opposition, including the party's problems adjusting to the realities of a five-party political system with different coalition permutations. NRW at Stake BERLIN 00000184 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (C) The plunging polls may not have been so alarming were it not for the May 9 elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW). The latest polls show that were state elections to be held now in NRW, the CDU-FDP coalition would not have the numbers to return to government. The FDP remains seized by the fear that the CDU may be looking to form a coalition with the Greens in NRW. CDU Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen's controversial push for a quick phase out of nuclear power prompted an angry outburst by Westerwelle at a coalition committee meeting on February 9; it remains a stark reminder how fickle and sensitive the government coalition is with regard to staking out positions for the elections in NRW. ¶6. (C) Westerwelle's "decadence" comments -- as the media has now referred to them -- has especially alarmed Andreas Pinkwart, NRW Deputy Minister-President and FDP state chair. Pinkwart has since called on Westerwelle to share leadership responsibilities with other FDP politicians with high public profiles, from both the federal and state levels. In a February 15 newspaper interview, Pinkwart said, "More teamwork is needed in the party leadership" and requested that "more faces (of other FDP leaders) be put up front." In this connection, he mentioned the FDP federal cabinet members and singled out FDP Secretary General Christian Lindner, who is from NRW. Other FDP politicians criticized Pinkwart's move as sending the wrong signal at a time when Westerwelle has come under attack for his position on welfare reforms. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) The FDP is slowly but surely awakening from its political honeymoon with voters after the recent publication of bad polling news. According to von Rimscha, "it is better to receive the wake up call now, instead of in April or early May in the run-up to the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia on May 9." With his party focused on defining its message and managing its CDU/CSU coalition partners, Westerwelle will be focused on how he can lead his party out of its current identity crisis and at the same time manage his (less critical) foreign affairs portfolio. If Westerwelle's reaction to the Court's welfare decision is an indication of what is to come, the FDP may continue on its downward spiral. Westerwelle seems to be betting that building profile is everything; hence, he seems to be staking out visible and tough positions on taxes, Afghanistan, tac nukes, Hartz IV, data privacy, and the proverbial kitchen sink. He may be hoping to avoid being "Steinmeiered" into obscurity by the predictable, low-key yet inexorable CDU/CSU, and emerge as a kind of Genscherian "thorn in the side" of the coalition that cannot be ignored. However, as we have heard many times, the German public does not generally embrace political turmoil or party squabbling, especially in times of crisis. Even a more risk-inclined FDP base may believe that their party chief has exceeded his bounds, especially in provoking its coalition partners and barking louder than either the Greens or the SPD -- both of whom may be wistfully wondering if their future is back in government. Delawie