LEFT PARTY CHAIRMAN OSKAR LAFONTAINE BIDS FAREWELL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 000100

SIPDIS

EUR FOR CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2020
TAGS: GM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: LEFT PARTY CHAIRMAN OSKAR LAFONTAINE BIDS FAREWELL
TO BERLIN LEAVING HIS PARTY IN LEADERSHIP TURMOIL

Classified By: MINISTER COUNSELOR FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS GEORGE GLASS FO
R REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

OSKAR LAFONTAINE QUITS NATIONAL POLITICS
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1. (C) Left Party Co-Chairman Oskar Lafontaine's January 23
resignation from the Bundestag and as party chair due to his
battle with cancer has created an immediate leadership vacuum
in The Left Party, leaving no one of similar stature to take
over. His announcement has fueled speculation about the
party's future -- including its viability without Lafontaine
and about who will ultimately step in. With more than a
tinge of Schadenfreude, the Social Democratic Party (SPD),
which has lost many left wing voters to The Left Party hopes
that Lafontaine's resignation will exacerbate pre-existing
east-west tensions within the party. Lafontaine's retreat
from national politics may also remove an impediment towards
more cooperation between the SPD and Left Party, since it was
the SPD's hostility towards Lafontaine that -- to a large
extent -- divided the two parties in the past. (Note:
Lafontaine split off from the SPD and founded The Left Party
against then-SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's welfare
reforms in 2005. End note.)


WHO CAN FILL OSKAR'S SHOES?
--------------



2. (C) Four potential successors have quickly emerged as the
front-runners for the chairmanship: Left Party Caucus Deputy
Chief Klaus Ernst, Bundestag Vice President and MdB Petra
Pau, MdB Gesine Loetzsch and MdB Dagmar Enkelmann. Party
Caucus Leader Gregor Gysi has taken center stage in managing
the selection of Lafontaine's political heir, but the
question of succession is complicated by the fact that The
Left Party's current Secretary-General Dietmar Bartsch --
after a political fall-out with Oskar Lafontaine and Gregor
Gysi -- decided not to run for re-election at the party's
national convention in May leaving a critical opening for his
position too. Thuringian Left Party Chairman Bodo Ramelow's
decision not to run for re-election to the Party's Executive
Committee removes another figure who could excite the party
faithful at the national level. Party stalwarts like Lothar
Bisky, Bartsch, and Bodo Ramelow have all been side-lined at
a time when their national presence will be sorely missed.



3. (C) Lafontaine can now infamously take credit for being
the only political leader in German history to bring two
major parties to the brink of political disaster. With his
resignation as SPD Party Chairman and Finance Minister in
1999 and his decision to leave the party in 2005 over the
SPD's controversial Hartz IV welfare agenda reforms,
Lafontaine has now added The Left Party to his list of
political casualties. With Lafontaine's departure, The Left
Party loses its foremost personality and the man whose ideas
became his party's political foundation. Lafontaine's return
to state politics (Saarland) leaves the Left Party further
exposed to divisive east-west debates about how the party's
ideological soul should be defined. The fear for the Left
Party faithful must be that their party will become mired in
leadership troubles at a time when the CDU/FDP-CSU coalition
is perceived to be weak by the German public.



4. (C) While the SPD might hope to benefit from Lafontaine's
demise, it is not certain that it will be able to extract any
significant political capital from the Left Party's current
leadership crisis, especially at a time when the SPD is
struggling to define its raison d'tre. It is also possible
that public speculation about future cooperation between the
SPD and The Left Party could actually damage the SPD, which
has tried to boost its bona fides with the center.



5. (SBU) Poloffs will attend The Left Party's New Year's
reception at the Bundestag on January 25 to learn more about
the leadership struggle.
DELAWIE