Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10BELGRADE116
2010-01-22 15:16:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:
SERBIA: ALMOST 700 CONFIRMED CASES OF H1N1 INFLUENZA; LOW
how-toVZCZCXRO5377 RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHBW #0116/01 0221517 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 221516Z JAN 10 FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0657 INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000116
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KFLU AMGT PINR ECON AMED SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: ALMOST 700 CONFIRMED CASES OF H1N1 INFLUENZA; LOW
DEMAND FOR VACCINE
REF: 09 BELGRADE 1332
SUMMARY
-------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000116
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KFLU AMGT PINR ECON AMED SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: ALMOST 700 CONFIRMED CASES OF H1N1 INFLUENZA; LOW
DEMAND FOR VACCINE
REF: 09 BELGRADE 1332
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (SBU) The number of cases and deaths attributed to H1N1 in
Serbia continues to climb. While the GoS continues to publicize
the dangers of the virus and the need for vaccination, many in the
Serbian public remain skeptical. As a result of the low demand for
vaccinations, Serbia has cut the number of vaccines on order.
Remaining stockpiles of vaccine should be adequate for the
immediate future, however it is unlikely that public perception
will shift, and we expect few Serbians will ultimately choose to be
vaccinated. End Summary.
CURRENT STATISTICS
--------------
2. (U) As of January 18, according to the Health Ministry, Serbia
has confirmed 689 cases of H1N1, and attributed 75 deaths to the
virus. Currently 269 people are hospitalized with flu-like
symptoms. These recent numbers show a significant increase in both
the number of confirmed cases and deaths attributed to the virus
since November 2009, when the GOS formally declared an epidemic.
At that time, 258 cases had been confirmed, and nine deaths
attributed to H1N1.
POOR TURNOUT FOR VACCINE
--------------
3. (U) The first shipments of vaccine from the Swiss
pharmaceutical company Novartis began arriving in late November
2009, and vaccination of high-risk populations began December 17,
2009. Since this time, according to press reports quoting Health
Minister Tomica Milosavljevic, Serbia has received 855,700 doses of
the vaccine, and vaccinated 135,583 persons - approximately 1.7% of
the Serbian population. The government working group formed to
monitor the spread of the H1N1 virus had previously stated that a
reasonable target for vaccination in Serbia would be 1.5 million
people or 20% of the population. Part of the reason for the low
turnout can be attributed to the public's skepticism of the safety
and necessity for the vaccine. Additionally, the public is wary of
the domestic agent for the Novartis vaccines, Jugohemija, whose
owner Miroslav Miskovic is a controversial Serbian tycoon. The
GoS has tried to publicize the safety and benefits of being
vaccinated by playing up the vaccination of government leaders, and
extending the school holidays as a preventive measure.
DECREASE IN VACCINE ORDER; NO IMPACT ON AVAILABILITY
-------------- --------------
4. (U) On January 13, the GoS decided to suspend until further
notice the purchase of additional H1N1 doses. According to local
press reports, the decision was made in consultation with the
Health Ministry and the working group monitoring the virus in
Serbia. The GoS will reevaluate the situation on February 20, at
which time it will decide whether to continue procuring additional
doses. Due to the limited current demand for the vaccine, the
Health Ministry expects the remaining stockpile should be adequate
to cover those wishing to be vaccinated.
BELGRADE 00000116 002 OF 002
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF SUSPENDING VACCINE ORDER
-------------- --------------
5. (U) Initial press reports, quoting Svetlana Vukajlovic, the
Director of the Republic Institute for Health Insurance (RZZO),
explained the GoS would not incur any financial losses if a portion
of the three million dose vaccine order was canceled. Vukajlovic
said that according to an oral agreement, Jugohemija would absorb
any financial consequences. Jugohemija disputed this claim in a
press statement, stating that any changes to the contract could
have "serious financial consequences for the company and for the
consumers in Serbia."
COMMENT
--------------
6. (SBU) The GoS continues its effort to convince people of the
need for vaccination. Strong public skepticism coupled with
persistent media reports questioning the need for vaccination have
resulted in a disappointing turn-out for the vaccine and may leave
the GoS with a hefty bill for the unused portion. However, as the
number of deaths attributed to H1N1 continues to rise, the GoS may
find it necessary to take stronger measures to stop the spread of
the disease. End Comment.
WARLICK
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KFLU AMGT PINR ECON AMED SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: ALMOST 700 CONFIRMED CASES OF H1N1 INFLUENZA; LOW
DEMAND FOR VACCINE
REF: 09 BELGRADE 1332
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (SBU) The number of cases and deaths attributed to H1N1 in
Serbia continues to climb. While the GoS continues to publicize
the dangers of the virus and the need for vaccination, many in the
Serbian public remain skeptical. As a result of the low demand for
vaccinations, Serbia has cut the number of vaccines on order.
Remaining stockpiles of vaccine should be adequate for the
immediate future, however it is unlikely that public perception
will shift, and we expect few Serbians will ultimately choose to be
vaccinated. End Summary.
CURRENT STATISTICS
--------------
2. (U) As of January 18, according to the Health Ministry, Serbia
has confirmed 689 cases of H1N1, and attributed 75 deaths to the
virus. Currently 269 people are hospitalized with flu-like
symptoms. These recent numbers show a significant increase in both
the number of confirmed cases and deaths attributed to the virus
since November 2009, when the GOS formally declared an epidemic.
At that time, 258 cases had been confirmed, and nine deaths
attributed to H1N1.
POOR TURNOUT FOR VACCINE
--------------
3. (U) The first shipments of vaccine from the Swiss
pharmaceutical company Novartis began arriving in late November
2009, and vaccination of high-risk populations began December 17,
2009. Since this time, according to press reports quoting Health
Minister Tomica Milosavljevic, Serbia has received 855,700 doses of
the vaccine, and vaccinated 135,583 persons - approximately 1.7% of
the Serbian population. The government working group formed to
monitor the spread of the H1N1 virus had previously stated that a
reasonable target for vaccination in Serbia would be 1.5 million
people or 20% of the population. Part of the reason for the low
turnout can be attributed to the public's skepticism of the safety
and necessity for the vaccine. Additionally, the public is wary of
the domestic agent for the Novartis vaccines, Jugohemija, whose
owner Miroslav Miskovic is a controversial Serbian tycoon. The
GoS has tried to publicize the safety and benefits of being
vaccinated by playing up the vaccination of government leaders, and
extending the school holidays as a preventive measure.
DECREASE IN VACCINE ORDER; NO IMPACT ON AVAILABILITY
-------------- --------------
4. (U) On January 13, the GoS decided to suspend until further
notice the purchase of additional H1N1 doses. According to local
press reports, the decision was made in consultation with the
Health Ministry and the working group monitoring the virus in
Serbia. The GoS will reevaluate the situation on February 20, at
which time it will decide whether to continue procuring additional
doses. Due to the limited current demand for the vaccine, the
Health Ministry expects the remaining stockpile should be adequate
to cover those wishing to be vaccinated.
BELGRADE 00000116 002 OF 002
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF SUSPENDING VACCINE ORDER
-------------- --------------
5. (U) Initial press reports, quoting Svetlana Vukajlovic, the
Director of the Republic Institute for Health Insurance (RZZO),
explained the GoS would not incur any financial losses if a portion
of the three million dose vaccine order was canceled. Vukajlovic
said that according to an oral agreement, Jugohemija would absorb
any financial consequences. Jugohemija disputed this claim in a
press statement, stating that any changes to the contract could
have "serious financial consequences for the company and for the
consumers in Serbia."
COMMENT
--------------
6. (SBU) The GoS continues its effort to convince people of the
need for vaccination. Strong public skepticism coupled with
persistent media reports questioning the need for vaccination have
resulted in a disappointing turn-out for the vaccine and may leave
the GoS with a hefty bill for the unused portion. However, as the
number of deaths attributed to H1N1 continues to rise, the GoS may
find it necessary to take stronger measures to stop the spread of
the disease. End Comment.
WARLICK