NORTHERN IRELAND'S SDLP ELECTS MARGARET RITCHIE PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELFAST 000015 NOFORN DEPT FOR EUR/WE NSC FOR TOBIN BRADLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/12/2020 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR UK EI SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND'S SDLP ELECTS MARGARET RITCHIE PARTY LEADER, REPLACING MARK DURKAN CLASSIFIED BY: Kamala Shirin Lakhdhir, Consul General, AMCONSUL BELFAST, State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Seeking to right itself following years of decline in the post-Good Friday Agreement era, the SDLP has chosen Margaret Ritchie to succeed Mark Durkan as party leader. Ritchie will seek to regain the party's pre-eminence among Northern Ireland's nationalist voters by differentiating itself from Sinn Fein on the economy, building a shared society, and by putting forth credible plans for a future united Ireland. Despite being seen as an earnest and honest politician, many SDLP faithful worry that Ritchie lacks the political muscle and business acumen needed to rebuild the party's structures in the post-John Hume, post-peace process context. While some may have supported Ritchie's candidacy to preserve the social democratic legacy of the SDLP, others worry that "more of the same" will push the party further into irrelevance. Regardless, Ritchie's success or failure will affect the shape and future of centrist nationalism in Northern Ireland. End summary. Ritchie Takes Helm of SDLP -------------- ¶2. (SBU/NF) After a hard-fought, five-month-long campaign, delegates to Northern Ireland's Social Democratic Labor Party's (SDLP) annual conference elected current Minister for Social Development and South Down MLA Margaret Ritchie as their new leader. Ritchie defeated South Belfast MP and MLA Dr. Alasdair McDonnell by a margin of 222 to 187 to succeed outgoing leader Mark Durkan. Ritchie, who is the first woman to lead the party in its 40-year history, faces a daunting task in reviving the SDLP's electoral fortunes, which have waned significantly among nationalist voters in the post-John Hume/peace process era. This drift has cost the SDLP the position of deputy First Minister and rendered it a distant second behind rival Sinn Fein, a bitter pill to swallow for the party that sees itself as the architect of the peace and civil rights enjoyed in Northern Ireland today. Since 1998, the SDLP's share of the vote has declined from 22 percent to 15 percent, slipping from the perch of largest nationalist party to holding only 16 Assembly seats to Sinn Fein's 28. In addition to being the first female leader of the party, Ritchie is also the first to be elected, as Mark Durkan ran unopposed to succeed John Hume, as did Hume when he succeeded founding leader Gerry Fitt. The party elected Mid-Ulster MLA Patsy McGlone, who ran unopposed, to succeed McDonnell as Deputy Leader. Establishment, Youth Support -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Ritchie received what appears to be decisive support from former leader Mark Durkan as well as backing from a majority of the SDLP's sitting MLAs at Stormont. Members of Durkan's family and some of his closest supporters expressed to us their joy as the results were announced to the conference, which reflected what we were hearing the evening prior to the vote count. The SDLP Youth wing had endorsed Ritchie as early as late-October 2009, and its members served prominently as core elements of her campaign team and as visible backers during the party conference. In announcing its support for Ritchie, the SDLP Youth cited her "courage as a Minister standing up to the DUP, Sinn Fein, and the UDA, and her dedication and commitment to a shared future" among its reasons for backing her candidacy. ¶4. (C/NF) The possibility of southern party Fianna Fail making further inroads in SDLP-friendly districts in the North seems to have spooked some among the SDLP's elected representatives and boosted Ritchie's candidacy. Several party delegates told us that they feared that McDonnell's leadership would render the SDLP as merely a northern arm of Fianna Fail, a theme alluded to in the speech to the conference by veteran MP Eddie McGrady. (Note: In addition to Irish Taoiseach Brian Cowen, Fianna Fail sent approximately 15 members to attend the conference. Fianna Fail currently does not run candidates in Northern Ireland, but is moving toward establishing a greater presence in the north.) This fear is not without foundation: long a discussion point among members, several party stalwarts, including the businessman son of a party founder, told us that an SDLP link-up/merger with Fianna Fail would be welcome and the only way to ensure a successful, all-island, and business-friendly alternative to Sinn Fein. Ritchie's Platform -------------- ¶5. (SBU/NF) Pledging to resurrect the SDLP to its former glory as the largest party in Northern Ireland, Ritchie laid out a platform designed to distinguish the SDLP from Sinn Fein and the other parties across the sectarian divide. Citing the SDLP's ability to lead the people peacefully to a shared society and united Ireland, Ritchie said her vision for the party will focus on being smarter on the economy, having a vision for a shared society, and having a credible plan for Irish unity. Drawing a contrast with McDonnell's sharp criticism of the party's direction, Ritchie sought to remind the party faithful of what they have accomplished thus far, to include: one person one vote; an end to gerrymandering; fair allocation of housing; an end to discrimination in the workplace; reform of policing; power sharing in government; North-South cooperation, and parity between the Catholic-Nationalist and Protestant-Unionist traditions. ¶6. (SBU/NF) The SDLP's newest MLA Conall McDevitt, who the party appointed in December to fill the slot of illness-stricken South Belfast MLA Carmel Hanna, told us that Ritchie's "social democratic" credentials where decisive in gaining his and others' support, as they see her as stronger on issues such as public housing, health provision, education, and the environment. McDevitt, who left his career as the managing director of a public relations firm to take up the MLA role, had formerly served on the SDLP communications team and is seen as a rising star in the party. McDonnell's Manifesto -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) Supporters of McDonnell, who many deem as more competent in matters of business and the economy and a proponent of radically restructuring the SDLP, worry that Ritchie will preside over "more of the same" and lead the party into further electoral irrelevance. A senior banking official and long-time SDLP supporter told us that Ritchie's leadership of the party would be a "disaster" in terms of the SDLP's approach to business and the economy, but conceded that McDonnell's sometimes "bull-in-the-china-shop" approach had put off many party colleagues. In a recent meeting, an exasperated McDonnell acknowledged to us that his focus on private sector development, in contrast to Ritchie's more social democratic approach, had unnerved some of the party faithful, but he saw it as the only way to address NI's socio-economic woes and build cross-community cohesion. ¶8. (C/NF) McDonnell also stressed the need for the SDLP to rebuild the party's finances, starting with more robust international fundraising. McDonnell felt that the SDLP could make a serious dent into Sinn Fein's fundraising in the U.S. by utilizing better on-the-ground organization to challenge Sinn Fein on potentially damaging issues such as its plan, or lack thereof, to support investment in Ireland. The SDLP could also highlight Sinn Fein's connection to radical socialism and pariah figures such as Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, and the HAMAS government. McDonnell said, however, that he felt thwarted in his desire to pursue a more robust fundraising presence by party traditionalists. 9.(C/NF) Viewing the party as currently existing on the scraps of Nobel Peace prize winner John Hume's legacy, McDonnell felt that the entire branch structure of the party had to be reinvigorated, with more power being devolved to party's grassroots level. This, he felt, would help strengthen the SDLP's campaign structure and management by ensuring that local concerns fed into the party's electoral strategies. He cited electoral mismanagement as having cost the party several closely-contested seats in recent elections. McDonnell also believed that strengthening the branch level party structures would boost ties with the business community and prove a decisive edge over rival parties on issues related to the economy. Comment -------------- 10.(C/NF) Although Ritchie was the more palatable and comfortable candidate for the majority of the SDLP, it is not yet clear if she possesses either the political muscle or innovative ideas to lead the party to its once-held position of pre-eminence. Being both the first female party leader and enjoying a strong connection with the youth of the party send positive signals to the SDLP electorate, and her reported penchant for organization and strategy should help align a party that ran adrift in the post-Hume era. That said, her faltering rhetorical skills and lack of business acumen may limit her ability to take on Sinn Fein in areas in which it is potentially vulnerable, such as education and the economy. Such an outcome could hasten the advance of Fianna Fail northward as nationalists potentially seek a more capable and robust alternative to Sinn Fein, despite Fianna Fail's assertions that it is not actively trying to grow its presence north of the border. Regardless, Ritchie's success or failure will affect the shape and future of centrist nationalism in Northern Ireland. Ritchie Biography -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Ritchie, who serves as an MLA for South Down, was appointed Minister for Social Development in May 2007 and is the sole SDLP member of the Executive cabinet. Her political career began in 1985 with her election to the Down District Council followed by an appointment as Parliamentary Assistant and Political Researcher to MP for South Down Eddie McGrady. She was elected as MLA for South Down in the Northern Ireland Assembly in both 2003 and 2007. She resigned her seat with the Down District Council in 2009 in line with the SDLP's policy against "double jobbing" among its elected representatives. ¶12. (SBU) Ritchie is 51 years old, and is a graduate of Queens University Belfast. She courted controversy in 2007 when she withheld public money destined for a loyalist community transformation initiative following UDA-instigated violence in areas outside Belfast. Despite earner her points among fellow nationalist, the move was later deemed improper and the decision quashed by a high court judge, but not before is caused disquiet in the unionist community. ¶13. (C/NF) While Ritchie seems to connect well at a personal level with both colleagues and constituents, she has appeared wooden and stilted during interactions with Consulate officials. She does not possess the rhetorical skills of her predecessor Mark Durkan, and is burdened with what some deem an unpleasant public speaking voice. Some of her public speaking engagements in the run-up to the party conference, to include live radio interviews, received poor reviews from both supporters and opponents alike. According to her supporters, however, Ritchie receives very high marks as a manager and organizer, and her sometimes bumpy public appearances are more than offset by an earnest and honest approach to politics. LAKHDHIR