PM HARIRI SETS SIGHTS ON TURKEY AS REGIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000099 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2020 TAGS: PREL ETRD PINR MARR TU SY LE SUBJECT: PM HARIRI SETS SIGHTS ON TURKEY AS REGIONAL MODERATOR REF: ANKARA 73 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his aides explained that Lebanon was seeking "strategic cooperation" with Turkey following the PM's January 10-12 visit to Ankara and Istanbul. Turkish diplomats in Beirut confirmed that the Lebanon and Turkey signed six agreements, including visa waiver and military cooperation agreements, to boost trade between the two countries. PM Hariri believes that Turkey's support and influence helped make possible his December visit to Syria, and he advised that Turkey could play a key balancing role in the region. Some Lebanese believe that Turkey's outreach to Lebanon causes some discomfort for Syria and Iran, and most welcome its moderating influence. End summary. AGREEMENTS TO BOOST TRADE -------------- ¶2. (C) Lebanon was seeking strategic cooperation with Turkey, Nader Hariri, Chief of Staff (and cousin) to PM Saad Hariri, told polchief on January 14. The Turks, seeing the door to Europe closing before them, were redirecting their efforts to playing a larger political and economic role to the east, Hariri assessed. "They clearly want to be involved regionally," Hariri added, pointing to recent Turkish success in strengthening relationships with Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. During PM Hariri's January 10-12 visit to Ankara and Istanbul, the response was "very enthusiastic" from Turkish officials, Hariri noted. He played up Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan's comment during a joint press conference January 11 that Syrian President Bashar al-Asad should visit Lebanon. Hariri observed pointedly that even the Syrians saw the benefits of a Turkish role in the region. ¶3. (C) PM Hariri's three-day visit led to six agreements in a variety of areas that would drastically increase the volume of trade between the two countries, Nader Hariri explained. Sukru Komit, Turkish DCM in Beirut, confirmed to poloffs that the agreements signed during the visit included a bilateral visa waiver agreement, a military cooperation agreement that allows for training exchanges and military equipment purchases, and sectoral cooperation agreements on health, agriculture, forestry and maritime issues. The parties also reached a tentative agreement to sell 250 megawatts of Turkey's excess electricity supply to Lebanon, Komit said, if transmission through Syria could be negotiated. Komit explained that the military agreement, in particular, was a priority for both countries to establish a legal framework for military cooperation. During the 2007 Nahr el-Barid crisis, the Turks were constrained from providing significant military assistance by the lack of an agreement, Komit said. The two sides also initiated plans to establish a direct ferry line from the southern Turkish port of Mersin to Beirut. HARIRI COUNTING ON THE TURKS -------------- ¶4. (C) PM Hariri explained to visiting U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Peace George Mitchell on January 19 that it was partially "because of Turkish support" that he was able to travel to Damascus and meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Asad as an equal. Hariri, known for his close ties with the Saudi government, emphasized that Turkey's positive relationships with Syria and Israel were good for the whole Middle East region. Turkey could be a "natural moderator" and was imbued with additional credibility because the ruling Islamist AKP party was participating in a secular government, PM Hariri reasoned. He added that Turkey presented a "balance" between the Islamic and Arab worlds and countered Iran's political and economic influence throughout the region. As a result, PM Hariri encouraged the U.S. to support Turkish efforts in the region. ¶5. (C) Lebanon and Syria are "competing" with each other for Turkish cooperation, Komit assessed. Several weeks prior to Hariri's visit to Ankara, he said, Turkish officials had visited Damascus and concluded 51 bilateral agreements. One week after Hariri's return to Lebanon, the Lebanese press reported that the GOL and the GOT would sign an additional 53 agreements in summer 2010 during the expected visit of Turkish PM Erdogan to Beirut in July. Komit clarified that it was not yet determined how many agreements would be signed in the future, although he anticipated there would be more. Turkey's approach to the Middle East, Komit stressed, was a direct outgrowth of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's foreign policy vision that Turkey should focus on its neighboring countries, at least as much as on Europe (reftel). To that end, the GOT believed that the various tracks of the regional peace process (Israel-Palestine, Israel-Syria, Lebanon-Syria) needed to move in parallel and address key issues, including Ghajar and Shebaa Farms in Lebanon, Komit said. SYRIA, IRAN UNEASY WITH TURKISH-LEBANESE RELATIONSHIP -------------- ¶6. (C) The GOL's opening to Turkey is causing some discomfort in Lebanon, Lebanese journalist Sarkis Naoum commented to poloffs on January 26. Naoum agreed with Hariri's view that Turkey has widespread appeal for the region, but the depth of the relationship with the GOL, even at this early stage, is worrying Syria. Syria, he argued, never wants to see another powerful player in Lebanon that might undercut its own influence. Moreover, the warming Syrian-Lebanese relationship is also contributing to Hizballah's -- and by extension, Iran's -- unease, Naoum asserted. While Turkey and Lebanon may have inked bilateral agreements, the broadening of the bilateral relationship has larger regional implications, he believed. ¶7. (C) Comment: PM Hariri and his aides were clearly pleased with the outcome of the visit to Turkey. The PM, in particular, views Turkish support as one of his strongest pillars to lean on as he develops as a national leader and defines his role in the regional context. Lebanon's sectarian leaders have historically called on external parties (Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran among them) to influence domestic and foreign policy. Turkey's measured emphasis on trade ties and its role as a regional moderator have made it a welcome presence in most Lebanese political circles. SISON