NEW CABINET'S AGENDA AND EFFECTIVENESS STILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000072 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM LE SUBJECT: NEW CABINET'S AGENDA AND EFFECTIVENESS STILL UNDETERMINED REF: A. 09 BEIRUT 1271 ¶B. BEIRUT 24 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The new Lebanese cabinet, which first met on December 21, has not resolved any substantive issues during the three sessions that have been held to date. All sides appear keen to avoid polarization in the cabinet following the late 2009 dispute over the wording of the ministerial statement. As the cabinet has edged into more sensitive issues, it has thus far tended to opt for postponement or outside negotiation instead of lengthy policy debates or hard decisions inside the cabinet. While it is too soon to assess the new cabinet fully, a wide range of contacts predict that the body will continue to avoid topics of strategic import. End Summary. UPBEAT SPIRIT IN THE CABINET -------------- ¶2. (C) The new Lebanese cabinet, which first met on December 21, has not resolved any substantive issues during the three sessions that have been held to date. The meetings, intended to be held weekly, have been canceled or rescheduled several times to accommodate the spate of foreign visits carried out by both President Michel Sleiman and Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Nader Hariri, the PM's chief of staff, told us on January 14 that the cabinet's agenda had been kept purposely light to allow the president and the PM to report on their trips and to permit the PM to become confident in his new role. Since there was no functioning cabinet for over half of 2009, hundreds of items requiring cabinet-level decisions are pending action. ¶3. (C) All sides appear keen to avoid polarization in the cabinet following the dispute over the wording of the ministerial statement (ref A). Nader Hariri underscored to us that the dynamic within the cabinet was positive and the PM was using the sessions to bond with ministers from the former opposition, such as Minister of Energy and Water Gebran Bassil and Minister of Agriculture Hussein al-Hajj Hassan. Bassil himself echoed Hariri in a meeting with the Ambassador on January 7 when he spoke highly of his relationship with the PM and predicted the cabinet would accomplish real achievements because the issues being addressed were not strategically contentious. Several small squabbles have taken place in the meetings (ref B),but all sides have described these incidents as examples of positive open debate. Tashnaq MP Hagop Pakradounian emphasized to poloff that the quarrels meant that decisions were being taken openly instead of being pre-cooked behind closed doors. Free Patriotic Movement MP Ibrahim Kanaan described the debates as a sign of a healthy democracy instead of leaders privately divvying up the cake. COMPLEX ISSUES POSTPONED -------------- ¶4. (C) As the cabinet has edged into more sensitive issues, it has tended to favor postponement or outside negotiation instead of lengthy policy debates or hard decisions inside the cabinet. Two issues, the appointment of senior civil servants and the debate over electoral reform, have revealed divisions that span the ideological spectrum. Nader Hariri explained that before the cabinet could resolve the issue of administrative appointments, Minister of State for Administrative Reform Mohammad Fneish (Hizballah) will develop a "mechanism" to manage the appointment process to ensure that all confessions and political parties are satisfied with the result. In the meantime, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and President Sleiman have conducted a public battle over the process. Although all parties have weighed in on the issue, Minister of State Wa'el Abu Faour made clear to polchief on January 21 that the debate will eventually be settled outside the limelight as political leaders negotiate their quotas before submitting the final agreement to the cabinet for formal approval. ¶5. (C) Aside from the squabbling over patronage, the most pressing issue faced by the cabinet is the upcoming municipal election. On January 19, the cabinet voted to extend the term of the sitting municipal boards to June 30, 2010, to allow the election to be delayed by a month. Information Minister Tareq Mitri explained the decision as providing time to discuss the "proposal to achieve greater reforms for the electoral system," and he announced a special cabinet session on January 26 to debate required electoral reforms. Speaker Berri also announced plans to convene parliament on January 25 to discuss a proposed constitutional amendment to lower the voting age from 21 to 18. Nevertheless, many observers believe that this delay will be just the first of many since few political parties believe they would benefit from holding elections now and the debate over electoral reform is expected to be contentious. A pessimistic Abu Faour predicted that, in the end, the elections would be delayed by a year. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: It is too soon to assess the new cabinet fully after only three sessions. Nevertheless, a wide range of contacts predict that the body will play the role of an "administrative council" since few controversial issues are expected to reach the table without prior consensus. The only strategic issue broached so far was a January 19 reiteration of the ministerial statement's commitment to disarm Palestinian factions outside the refugee camps. The coming debate over electoral reforms should shed more light on the resolve of the cabinet to debate issues of national concern seriously. SISON