MARCH 14 PARTNERS STRUGGLE WITH NEXT STEPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000065 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2020 TAGS: PGOV KDEM LE SA SUBJECT: MARCH 14 PARTNERS STRUGGLE WITH NEXT STEPS Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Members of the March 14 coalition are now struggling to agree on how to mark their next significant event, the fifth commemoration of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination on February 14. Prime Minister Saad Hariri is reportedly hesitating to hold a major political rally, while Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is advising a broader gathering including all political parties. Meanwhile, Christian members of the March 14 coalition find themselves marginalized. End Summary. MARCH 14 CONFLICTED OVER HARIRI MEMORIAL EVENT -------------- - ¶2. (C) The March 14 coalition, already weakened by the government formation process, is now struggling to agree on how to mark its next significant event, the fifth commemoration of Rafik Hariri's assassination on February 14. March 14 Secretary General Fares Souaid told Pol Advisor on January 11 that the leaders of March 14 held a meeting on January 9 at Hariri's residence to discuss the issue. The meeting, which was attended by Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel, former PM Fouad Siniora, Labor Minister Boutros Harb, former Finance Minister Mohamad Chatah, Souaid and March 14 figure Samir Franjiyeh, was positive, said Souaid, but it failed to yield a clear consensus. ¶3. (C) Hariri, unsure of his ability to attract the Sunni public to the rally, pushed for a memorial ceremony instead of a political rally in central Beirut's Martyr's Square that the March 14 Secretariat had proposed. "It is ironic that March 14 Christians had to convince Hariri to hold the rally," Souaid commented. Hariri was eventually convinced to hold the rally. The coalition is still looking for the appropriate slogan to attract its base. Using opposition to Hizballah's weapons as a slogan, Souaid noted, could affect the cabinet's unity. For his part, Samir Franjiyeh opined that the best slogan would be to stress March 14's solidarity. WILL SAUDI ARABIA CONTINUE ITS SUPPORT? -------------- ¶4. (C) March 14 figure and Christian independent figure Michel Mouawad outlined to Pol Advisor the reasons for Hariri's reluctance. Mouawad believed that in the atmosphere of reconciliation between Syria and Saudi Arabia, Hariri's Saudi patrons might pressure him to drop the idea of a political rally. In addition, Mouawad complained that Saudi promises to cover March 14's expenses for the June 2009 parliamentary elections had not yet been fulfilled. As a result, he said, the group's political machine was suffering serious shortfalls, and it would be difficult to attract supporters to the rally unless the coalition first paid its arrears to them. Mouawad reported that his own electoral machine was short USD 2 million in settling its obligations. (Note: Mouawad's campaign did receive some Saudi funding via Saad's coffers, we understand. End Note.) HARIRI AND JUMBLATT STILL HESITANT -------------- ¶5. (C) Following the January 9th meeting at Hariri's home, on January 13 the March 14 Secretariat reconvened at the working level to determine how to energize its base for the rally. Saleh Farroukh, coordinator for Hariri's Future Movement, expressed fears the Sunni turnout would be lower than previous years and complained of the absence of funds for such an event. "We need gasoline and the oil to make the machine run," Farroukh said, hinting that funding was not available. Farroukh also worried about the rally's theme and relayed that Hariri did not want the organizers to use any provocative anti-Syrian slogans. Some close to Hariri were still advising him to hold a small gathering to commemorate the occasion at the place where Hariri was assassinated, Farroukh revealed, but Farroukh himself opposed such a move because it would signal to the Sunni community that Hariri had capitulated to the Syrians. ¶6. (C) For his part, Walid Jumblatt told Pol Advisor on January 14 that he was opposed to a political rally for Hariri's commemoration and preferred a larger gathering to which all parties would be invited, including Michel Aoun's FPM and Hizballah. "After all," he argued, "we are all participating in a national unity cabinet." Jumblatt evaded the question of whether he would attend a less inclusive rally in Martyrs' Square and said, "Hariri is in a difficult position regarding this event." ¶7. (C) Comment: In the current atmosphere of national unity and reconciliation, PM Hariri appears to many reluctant to take politically sensitive positions even on the anniversary of his father's death. With Jumblatt pushing for national unity from outside March 14 and Hariri no longer directing the coalition or channeling funds to it, independent Christians, smaller parties such as Gemayel's Kataeb are feeling increasingly marginalized, even though they know they have nowhere else to go. SISON