GEMAYEL ON MARCH 14

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000051 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KISL SY LE SUBJECT: GEMAYEL ON MARCH 14 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Although March 14 leaders -- save Druze leader Walid Jumblatt -- continue to meet to discuss policy issues on a regular basis, Prime Minister Saad Hariri is pulling back from taking a March 14 leadership role given his new office, said Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel. Gemayel expressed concern that Hizballah and Syria's influence over President Sleiman and PM Hariri is growing rapidly, and dismissed the National Dialogue's ability to resolve the issue of Hizballah's arms. End Summary. MARCH 14 IS DEAD, LONG LIVE MARCH 14 -------------- ¶2. (C) "We are beyond names and titles. March 14 is over but you must preserve its spirit," Gemayel told the Ambassador on January 13 as he urged the U.S. to continue its moral and material support for "those fighting for the freedom, sovereignty and independence of Lebanon." Although Gemayel discounted the importance of the diminishing March 14 Secretariat, from which Kataeb had earlier withdrawn, he reported that he, Hariri, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, former PM Fouad Siniora, and Hariri advisor Mohamed Chatah continue to meet regularly to discuss policy issues. Hariri is increasingly uncomfortable in these meetings following his trip to Damascus, Gemayel assessed, because Hariri is unsure whether he should act as prime minister of the nation or the leader of March 14. The group has begun discussing plans for a February 14 rally marking the fifth anniversary of Rafik Hariri's assassination, Gemayel noted. LEBANESE LEADERS LOOK TO SYRIA -------------- ¶3. (C) Changing national, regional and international dynamics, Gemayel worried, have drawn Sleiman and even Hariri into the Syrian orbit. Gemayel recalled that during a recent visit to Sleiman, the president sidestepped when Gemayel pressed him to moderate his public rhetoric praising Syria. Sleiman is in daily contact with Damascus, Gemayel claimed, and Damascus is demanding and obtaining specific phrasing in Sleiman's speeches and media appearances. Gemayel asked that we publicly and privately reassert our commitment to a free and independent Lebanon to slow Hariri's being pulled into the "Syria-Iran-Hizballah axis." LITTLE FAITH IN THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE -------------- ¶4. (C) The National Dialogue is little more than a forum for indefinitely delaying Hizballah's disarmament, Gemayel complained. While the composition of the group is not important, he maintained, the key issue is whether it will seriously tackle the problem of non-state actors' arms. Hizballah's military capability should be addressed first because it trumps all other concerns, according to Gemayel. ¶5. (C) Comment: Gemayel's frustration of Kataeb's marginalization in Lebanese politics was evident throughout the meeting (his party won only five National Assembly seats and has only one cabinet ministry). His admission that the party is "participating in the cabinet only because it has become a mini-parliament" neatly encapsulates the party's status. While Kataeb's representatives in the government have assumed a plaintive and dyspeptic tone, as a rump party they are unable to counter the prevailing wind of reconciliation blowing through Beirut. SISON