SCENESETTER FOR CODEL MCCAIN'S JANUARY 8-9 VISIT

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000004 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV KDEM EAID UNSC PTER MARR LE SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL MCCAIN'S JANUARY 8-9 VISIT TO LEBANON ¶1. (SBU) Summary: U.S. Embassy Beirut welcomes your January 8-9 visit as one of the first high-level delegations to Lebanon of 2010. As Lebanon emerges from a six-month struggle to form a new national unity government, your meetings with President Michel Sleiman, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri will reinforce the message that the U.S. is committed to supporting Lebanon's state institutions and the new government. Our support to the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces (with a committed total over $1 billion),as well as our other robust assistance programs, aim to strengthen state institutions, promote economic growth, support education, and build civil society. Your visit to Lebanon will show continued U.S. support for Lebanon's sovereignty and stability, in addition to highlighting the state's obligation to exert control over all of its territory. Your visit will also highlight the U.S. desire to gain a better understanding of the Lebanese perspective and role in securing a comprehensive and lasting peace in the region. President Sleiman and PM Hariri, in particular, will seek assurances that the U.S. remains committed to supporting Lebanon and that Middle East peace negotiations will take into account their concerns about Palestinian refugees resident in Lebanon. End Summary. NEW UNITY GOVERNMENT BASED ON CONSENSUS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The new prime minister, Saad Hariri, was able to form a cabinet in December after nearly six months of negotiations only after he granted the opposition key concessions. Although the contentious cabinet negotiations weakened March 14 and strengthened those allied with Syria and Iran, most Lebanese leaders appear to be seeking a period of calm after years of tumult following former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination and the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon. Your interlocutors will be keenly interested in U.S. engagements in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the U.S. relationship with Syria and our role in restarting Middle East peace negotiations. They will likely emphasize Lebanese opposition to settling Palestinian refugees in Lebanon under any such deal. KEY U.S. OBJECTIVES: INSTITUTION-BUILDING, REGIONAL STABILITY -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Strengthening Lebanese state institutions has been 
and continues to be the primary U.S. objective in Lebanon. The U.S. has committed over $1 billion in security assistance to the military and police since 2005 in order to help them extend their control over all Lebanese territory, including those areas dominated by Hizballah. President Obama underscored this vision by emphasizing the importance of controlling arms smuggling into Lebanon during President Sleiman's recent visit to Washington. On the civilian side, USAID manages robust programs targeting the judicial, educational, and agricultural sectors. The embassy also promotes civil society development and supports various initiatives targeting institutional reform through the Middle East Partnership Initiative and other USG programs. Your visit is an opportunity to reaffirm U.S. support for political and economic reform in Lebanon and our ongoing support for the various Lebanon-related UN Security Council Resolutions (UNSCR),such as UNSCRs 1559 and 1701, that call for extending the state's control over all its territory. SLEIMAN SEEKS THE MIDDLE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) President Sleiman, the former army commander elected as a consensus candidate in 2008, has committed himself to representing all Lebanese and to striving for unity among Lebanon's sectarian groups. Although the Christian president's powers are limited by the constitution, Sleiman has emphasized that his absolute priority is maintaining stability in Lebanon by balancing internal and external political forces. Sleiman has also sought to return Lebanon to its place among the international community, and he was a prime force in pushing Lebanon's candidacy for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, which it will assume this year. During his December 14-15 visit to Washington, Sleiman publicly emphasized the need for continued U.S. assistance to Lebanon, complained of Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty, and called on the U.S. to ensure that any peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians address Lebanese concerns on Palestinian refugees. HARIRI DONS THE PM'S MANTLE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Prime Minister Saad Hariri, leader of Lebanon's Sunnis and heir to his assassinated father's political and business legacy, assumed his new role after a grueling negotiation with his political opponents. As the head of the primarily Sunni Future Movement, Hariri was a key leader of the March 14 coalition and an opponent of Syrian influence in Lebanon. After forming a unity government in December, he visited Damascus to establish a relationship with Syria's President Bashar al-Asad as part of a regional detente between Syria and Hariri's primary backer, Saudi Arabia. Hariri will seek assurances of continued U.S. support for his country, and you will have the opportunity to urge him to strengthen and reform Lebanese state institutions which have been weakened by years of neglect, occupation, and internal strife. Despite our extensive security assistance -- including the provision of high-tech items such as the Raven UAV -- Hariri will likely outline his desire for a "Marshall Plan" for the LAF. BERRI AS LEGISLATIVE LEADER -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Nabih Berri, first elected speaker of parliament under the Syrian occupation, has held the position for 18 years and exerts a strong measure of control over the institution. He also heads the Amal Party and partners with Hizballah to represent the Shia community in Lebanon. Since the formation of the new government, Berri has publicly advanced a series of reforms, including the abolition of sectarianism in the Lebanese political system. Your meeting with him will present an opportunity to seek his thoughts on those reforms. JUMBLATT BLAZES A NEW PATH -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Walid Jumblatt, leader of Lebanon's Druze community, was a key player in the 2005 Cedar Revolution that led to the Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon. Although his Progressive Socialist Party was part of the March 14 alliance from 2005 to 2009, Jumblatt began seeking an independent path following May 2008 clashes between March 14 Sunnis and Druze and the Hizballah-led Shia. In August, he formally defected from March 14 and has continued building relationships with his former enemies in March 8, all while adopting an increasingly anti-American tone. Jumblatt has been clear that his primary goal is maintaining the security of his Druze followers and repairing his relationship with Syria, so your meeting with him will be a chance to sound out his views on regional political dynamics. SISON