Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10BEIRUT24
2010-01-08 13:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:
JUMBLATT SAYS RECONCILIATION WITH RIVALS NEARLY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000024
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2020
TAGS: PREL PTER PINR KCRM SY LE
SUBJECT: JUMBLATT SAYS RECONCILIATION WITH RIVALS NEARLY
COMPLETE
REF: A. 09 BEIRUT 972
B. BEIRUT 14
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000024
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2020
TAGS: PREL PTER PINR KCRM SY LE
SUBJECT: JUMBLATT SAYS RECONCILIATION WITH RIVALS NEARLY
COMPLETE
REF: A. 09 BEIRUT 972
B. BEIRUT 14
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: His reconciliation with the March 8 alliance
is nearly complete, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt told the
Ambassador on January 5. While his base had initially
opposed his exit from March 14 and his opening to the Shia,
Jumblatt explained, they were "getting used" to his shift,
which would culminate in a joint reconciliation ceremony on
January 10. The new cabinet "started bad" with a tiff
between Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Jumblatt ally
Transportation Minister Ghazi al-Aridi, but Jumblatt
emphasized that the dispute was being resolved by the two
sides. Jumblatt's clear goal is a reconciliation with
Damascus, but he seemed hard-pressed to express enthusiasm
for his new bedfellows. End summary.
RECONCILIATION NEARLY COMPLETE
--------------
2. (C) His reconciliation with the March 8 alliance following
his August departure from March 14 is nearly complete,
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt told
the Ambassador on January 5. "Everybody is loving
everybody," a visibly relaxed Jumblatt joked before adding
that, after his scheduled meeting with Free Patriotic
Movement leader Michel Aoun on January 11, "It's over." When
the Ambassador asked about the January 3 dinner Syrian Druze
proxy Wiam Wahhab held for Jumblatt, during which both Wahhab
and Jumblatt praised Syria and forecast a Jumblatt visit to
Damascus, Jumblatt merely noted the quality of the food and
the wide range of attendees, including Interior Minister Ziad
Baroud and Future MP Nohad Mashnouq.
3. (C) After the dinner Wahhab had told the press that
Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah, rather than Wahhab
himself, was the door that Jumblatt would have to pass
through to reach Damascus. Jumblatt told the Ambassador that
his continued reconciliation with the Shia (ref A) would
culminate in a joint reconciliation ceremony on January 10 in
Choueifat, the scene of vicious Druze-Shia clashes in May
2008. While the PSP base had initially opposed his exit from
March 14 and his opening to the Shia, Jumblatt assessed, they
were "getting used" to his shift, and he could thus now exert
control to prevent renewed outbreaks of sectarian conflict.
Jumblatt played up Hizballah's invitation to the Internal
Security Forces (ISF) to enter the southern suburbs of Beirut
(ref B) as a sign that Nasrallah could not address the
lawlessness in the area "despite his popularity and his iron
fist."
NEW CABINET OFF TO ROCKY START
--------------
4. (C) The new cabinet "started bad" with a tiff between
Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Jumblatt ally Transportation
Minister Ghazi al-Aridi in the second cabinet meeting,
Jumblatt noted, although he reported that the technical
disputes involved were being resolved by the two sides. The
National Dialogue table would likely be expanded, Jumblatt
predicted, although its reconstitution would probably be
delayed by an ongoing dispute in the cabinet about
appointments in the civil service and the security services.
A shake-up in the security services would be unlikely because
of the need for confessional balance, unless the PM acceded
to replacing ISF head Gen. Ashraf Rifi, Jumblatt predicted.
Despite the need for electoral reform to allow direct
election of mayors in advance of the May 2010 municipal
election, Jumblatt assessed that those allied with the mayors
of large cities would oppose the plan.
5. (C) COMMENT: Jumblatt, once the stalwart of March 14, has
nearly completed a humiliating round of reconciliation
meetings to stake out his new position. Long considered the
weathervane of Lebanese politics, Jumblatt's clear goal at
this point is a reconciliation with Damascus, and he has been
burnishing his anti-American and "pro-Resistance" credentials
to that end. Nevertheless, Jumblatt seems hard-pressed to
express enthusiasm for his new bedfellows, and he clearly
sees his party's prominence as a leftist, multi-confessional
party as reduced in an era of sectarian identity. Despite
speculation that he would formally join his former rivals, we
assess that Jumblatt will instead seek to maintain an
independent position that optimizes his bargaining position.
SISON
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2020
TAGS: PREL PTER PINR KCRM SY LE
SUBJECT: JUMBLATT SAYS RECONCILIATION WITH RIVALS NEARLY
COMPLETE
REF: A. 09 BEIRUT 972
B. BEIRUT 14
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: His reconciliation with the March 8 alliance
is nearly complete, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt told the
Ambassador on January 5. While his base had initially
opposed his exit from March 14 and his opening to the Shia,
Jumblatt explained, they were "getting used" to his shift,
which would culminate in a joint reconciliation ceremony on
January 10. The new cabinet "started bad" with a tiff
between Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Jumblatt ally
Transportation Minister Ghazi al-Aridi, but Jumblatt
emphasized that the dispute was being resolved by the two
sides. Jumblatt's clear goal is a reconciliation with
Damascus, but he seemed hard-pressed to express enthusiasm
for his new bedfellows. End summary.
RECONCILIATION NEARLY COMPLETE
--------------
2. (C) His reconciliation with the March 8 alliance following
his August departure from March 14 is nearly complete,
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt told
the Ambassador on January 5. "Everybody is loving
everybody," a visibly relaxed Jumblatt joked before adding
that, after his scheduled meeting with Free Patriotic
Movement leader Michel Aoun on January 11, "It's over." When
the Ambassador asked about the January 3 dinner Syrian Druze
proxy Wiam Wahhab held for Jumblatt, during which both Wahhab
and Jumblatt praised Syria and forecast a Jumblatt visit to
Damascus, Jumblatt merely noted the quality of the food and
the wide range of attendees, including Interior Minister Ziad
Baroud and Future MP Nohad Mashnouq.
3. (C) After the dinner Wahhab had told the press that
Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah, rather than Wahhab
himself, was the door that Jumblatt would have to pass
through to reach Damascus. Jumblatt told the Ambassador that
his continued reconciliation with the Shia (ref A) would
culminate in a joint reconciliation ceremony on January 10 in
Choueifat, the scene of vicious Druze-Shia clashes in May
2008. While the PSP base had initially opposed his exit from
March 14 and his opening to the Shia, Jumblatt assessed, they
were "getting used" to his shift, and he could thus now exert
control to prevent renewed outbreaks of sectarian conflict.
Jumblatt played up Hizballah's invitation to the Internal
Security Forces (ISF) to enter the southern suburbs of Beirut
(ref B) as a sign that Nasrallah could not address the
lawlessness in the area "despite his popularity and his iron
fist."
NEW CABINET OFF TO ROCKY START
--------------
4. (C) The new cabinet "started bad" with a tiff between
Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Jumblatt ally Transportation
Minister Ghazi al-Aridi in the second cabinet meeting,
Jumblatt noted, although he reported that the technical
disputes involved were being resolved by the two sides. The
National Dialogue table would likely be expanded, Jumblatt
predicted, although its reconstitution would probably be
delayed by an ongoing dispute in the cabinet about
appointments in the civil service and the security services.
A shake-up in the security services would be unlikely because
of the need for confessional balance, unless the PM acceded
to replacing ISF head Gen. Ashraf Rifi, Jumblatt predicted.
Despite the need for electoral reform to allow direct
election of mayors in advance of the May 2010 municipal
election, Jumblatt assessed that those allied with the mayors
of large cities would oppose the plan.
5. (C) COMMENT: Jumblatt, once the stalwart of March 14, has
nearly completed a humiliating round of reconciliation
meetings to stake out his new position. Long considered the
weathervane of Lebanese politics, Jumblatt's clear goal at
this point is a reconciliation with Damascus, and he has been
burnishing his anti-American and "pro-Resistance" credentials
to that end. Nevertheless, Jumblatt seems hard-pressed to
express enthusiasm for his new bedfellows, and he clearly
sees his party's prominence as a leftist, multi-confessional
party as reduced in an era of sectarian identity. Despite
speculation that he would formally join his former rivals, we
assess that Jumblatt will instead seek to maintain an
independent position that optimizes his bargaining position.
SISON