TIBET WORK CONFERENCE: EXPANDING DEVELOPMENT FOCUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIJING 000468 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2030 TAGS: PHUM PGOV SOCI ECON CH SUBJECT: TIBET WORK CONFERENCE: EXPANDING DEVELOPMENT FOCUS BEYOND THE TAR REF: 09 BEIJING 1242 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Although the Communist Party's Fifth Tibet Work Conference January 18-20 did not result in major policy changes, it signaled shifts in emphasis intended to address economic tensions that led to the March 2008 violence throughout Tibetan areas of China. Contacts at two Party think tanks noted that, unlike previous Tibet work conferences, the latest meeting included unprecedented discussion of developing Tibetan areas outside of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). Mindful that Tibetans in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, and Yunnan provinces have grown resentful of subsidies lavished on the TAR, Party leaders realize this development gap between the TAR and non-TAR Tibetan areas contributed to the 2008 unrest. A Central Party School contact predicted that, as a result of the conference, the "help Tibet" program of sending cadres on temporary duty to the TAR will be expanded to Tibetan areas in other provinces. Another theme of the conference, we were told, was increasing rural incomes and ensuring central government spending benefits ordinary Tibetans. The Chinese public is growing skeptical of annual central government subsidies amounting to nearly US$3,000 per capita in the TAR. Party leaders are under pressure to show that this spending will lead to greater stability in minority areas. Tibetan dissident blogger Woeser (protect) was critical of the Fifth Work Conference, saying the exclusive focus on economic development will only encourage more Han migration into Tibetan regions. Slogans about boosting rural income, she said, will, in practice, mean more unregulated mining and environmental destruction on the Tibetan Plateau. End summary. "Completely Correct" -------------- ¶2. (U) The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee and the State Council held the Fifth Tibet Work Conference in Beijing January 18-20. All nine members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee attended the meeting, according to official news releases. In his speech at the conference, General Secretary Hu Jintao praised the party's handling of Tibet, declaring that "practice proves" that guiding policies are "completely correct." According to Xinhua News Agency transcripts, Hu made no direct mention of the March 2008 unrest in his speech, though he said development and stability were the best methods to counter the "contradictions" created by the "separatist forces led by the Dalai clique." Hu's remarks, which included the goal of bringing rural incomes in Tibet in line with the national average by 2020, encapsulated the Conference focus on economic development. Premier Wen Jiabao, in his speech at the conference, listed the government's priorities in Tibet as 1) improving people's livelihoods and boosting employment opportunities for farmers and herders; 2) developing better social services, including education and medical care; and 3) increasing infrastructure and investment in transportation. New Attention to Greater Tibet -------------- ¶3. (C) Several Beijing-based Tibet experts said that the most significant change from the previous four Tibet work conferences, the last of which was held in 2001, was an expansion of focus beyond the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) to include Tibetan regions of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. (Note: Roughly half of China's 5.4 million ethnic Tibetans live outside the TAR.) Tanzen Lhundup (Danzeng Lunzhu),Vice Director of the Institute for Sociology and Economics at the Chinese Center for Tibetan Studies, a think tank associated with the Communist Party's United Front Work Department, told PolOff February 5 that including the development of Tibetan areas of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan on the agenda for the Fifth Tibet Work Conference was, in part, a reaction to the protests of March BEIJING 00000468 002 OF 004 ¶2008. Not only did many migrants from non-TAR areas participate in the rioting in Lhasa, he said, but the regions bordering the TAR, particularly Tibetan Sichuan, experienced some of the worst unrest. Given the increasing mobility of Tibetans, Tanzen Lhundup said, the government could no longer talk about developing the TAR without considering the difficulties facing all Tibetan areas. Expansion of the "Help Tibet" Program? -------------- ¶4. (C) Hu Yan (protect) the head of the ethnic and religious studies department at the CCP's Central Party School, told PolOff February 24 that, as a result of the Fifth Work Conference, he expected the government to expand its "help Tibet" (yuan zang) program to include Tibetan areas outside the TAR. (Note: Under the program, government and party cadres are sent to the TAR for temporary assignments of three years.) Hu, who himself served as vice director of the TAR Party School in Lhasa 1998-2000 as a "help Tibet" cadre, said Tibetan regions outside the TAR needed to be included in such assistance efforts. Hu and Tanzen Lhundup both noted that the bulk of central government subsidies were channeled into the TAR and this was causing resentment among officials and ordinary Tibetans in neighboring provinces. Cadres working in the TAR made significantly more, in some cases double, what civil servants made in Tibetan regions of Qinghai, Gansu and Sichuan, Tanzen Lundup said. Tibetans outside the TAR, according to Hu, saw the huge amount spent on public works in the TAR while their own communities were starved of resources. ¶5. (C) In a February 3 meeting, Yangling Dorje (protect),a retired senior Tibetan CCP cadre and the former Chairman of the Tibet Autonomous Region's Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, told Chengdu Consul General that the Fifth Tibet Work Conference was the first time the entire Politburo had come together for a meeting about a minority region. He said the Fifth Conference could prove to be the most important event for Tibetans since the Second Tibet Work Conference in 1984, providing the recommendations of the January meeting were fully implemented. (Note: The Second Tibet Work Conference was convened by then-CCP General Secretary Hu Yaobang and, along with the First Conference in 1980, resulted in further relaxation of culturally repressive policies of the 1960s and 70s.) A great admirer of Hu Yaobang, Yangling Dorje characterized general CCP Tibet policy as "wise" but sometimes suffering from poor implementation. Too many corrupt officials, he said, made use of the "splittism issue" to suppress loyal people who made honest criticisms. He added that, while development of the TAR had been the primary focus of the conference, the issue of developing the other Tibetan areas had been included on the agenda because the development gap between the TAR and Tibetan areas outside the TAR had become too large. Yangling Dorje expressed hope that, as a result of the Fifth Conference, the central government would make good on some long-standing promises to end the salary gap between officials working in the TAR and those working in other Tibetan areas. Income, Not Just GDP -------------- ¶6. (C) In addition to the new focus on non-TAR Tibetan areas, Tanzen Lundup cited the Fifth Tibet Work Conference's look at rural incomes as another shift of emphasis, one that was meant to address the economic tensions that contributed to the March 2008 unrest. The discussion of "people's livelihoods" and income at the conference reflected a growing realization among CCP leaders that massive central government investment was not reaching many individual rural Tibetans (reftel). While Tibetans in Lhasa and major urban centers, he said, were benefiting from booming tourism and service industry growth, the incomes of Tibetan farmers and herders had remained low despite the dramatic increases in central government spending. The government was aware there had been an "economic background" to the rioting that started in Lhasa on March 14, 2008, he BEIJING 00000468 003 OF 004 said, and Party leaders sought to more directly link projects with personal income rather than just GDP growth. Closing the "Skills Gap" -------------- ¶7. (C) Tanzen Lhundup, who said he was closely involved in the planning of the Fifth Work Conference, said conflicts occurred when centrally planned infrastructure projects met the "realities of local economies" on the Tibetan Plateau. For example, when the government decided to build a road in a remote area, there were typically no Tibetan- owned companies with the required capital and experience to bid on the contract. The need to complete the road efficiently and at the lowest cost invariably meant the contract would be awarded to large state-owned construction firms based outside of Tibet. Adding to this problem was the "skills gap" between Tibetan and non-Tibetan workers, which he said was the main reason why Han companies were reluctant to hire more Tibetans. "Well-intentioned" attempts by the TAR government to better employment conditions for Tibetans, he said, had made matters worse by denying contractors the flexibility to hire low-skilled Tibetans at lower wages than more qualified Han migrants. For example, according to Tanzen Lhundup, former TAR Chairman Qiangba Puncog (Chamba Phuntsog) had once attempted to implement a rule to force public works contractors to hire a set quota of Tibetans at a minimum wage of RMB 30 (US$4.40) per day. The policy had failed due to resistance by contractors, who had felt the wage exceeded that of more experienced Han migrants and forced them to take on too many unskilled workers. As a result of the Fifth Work Conference, Tanzen Lhundup said he expected the government to increase vocational training programs for Tibetans to help them compete against Han workers. Huge Cash Infusions Unpopular With Public -------------- ¶8. (C) Ma Rong (protect),a Peking University sociologist and frequent advisor to the Communist Party's United Front Work Department (UFWD),echoed Tanzen Lhundup's assessment that the recent conference's focus on boosting incomes represented an indirect acknowledgment that massive central government subsidies were not translating into real income growth for average Tibetans. Ma told PolOff February 9 that the infusion of central government money into the TAR was also becoming a public relations problem for the CCP. Following the Tibetan unrest of March 2008 and the July 2009 violence in Xinjiang, the Chinese public had grown more skeptical of subsidies for minority regions. In 2007, according to Ma, central government investment in Tibet amounted to RMB 10,000 (US$1470) per person. Now, almost two years after the Tibet riots, that figure was close to RMB 20,000 (US$2940) per person. "Chinese people think this is waste of taxpayer money," Ma said, adding the government was under pressure to show that this investment was contributing to greater social stability. Although, like Tanzen Lhundup and Hu Yan, Ma cited the new emphasis on Tibetan areas outside the TAR as an important step, he was less positive about the conference as a whole. Overall, the Fifth Work Conference revealed little new thinking on Tibet, Ma said, and the meeting primarily served to bolster existing policies. "Development" Just Means More Han Migrants -------------- ¶9. (C) Tibetan poet and blogger Woeser (protect) offered a critical assessment of the Fifth Work Conference in a meeting with PolOff February 4, saying the emphasis on economic development would only mean more Han migrants and further destruction of Tibet's culture and environment. Woeser said that the platitudes by Hu Jintao and other party leaders about boosting rural incomes would translate on the ground into even faster development of mining enterprises, which she cited as the greatest single threat to Tibet's environment. Unregulated mining, she said, was creating tremendous ecological damage, BEIJING 00000468 004 OF 004 including polluting waterways vital to Tibetan herders, all while providing few jobs to ethnic Tibetans. ¶10. (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen Chengdu. HUNTSMAN