TIBET: CHINA FEELING PUBLIC PRESSURE TO REACT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000358

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2030
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL CH
SUBJECT: TIBET: CHINA FEELING PUBLIC PRESSURE TO REACT
STRONGLY TO POTUS-DALAI LAMA MEETING, CONTACTS SAY

REF: BEIJING 314

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor
Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Increased expression of
nationalistic sentiment and public anger over recent
Taiwan arms sales mean the PRC leadership will need
to somehow "punish" the United States if the
President meets with the Dalai Lama, according to
several contacts. A Tibetan academic at a Communist
Party-run think tank said that, at the very least,
the meeting will make dialogue between China and the
Dalai Lama's representatives more difficult. In
contrast, Tibetan monks we spoke with said they were
"very happy" that President Obama would receive the
Dalai Lama and claimed that the overwhelming
majority of Tibetans in China know about the
upcoming meeting and fully support it. In private
conversations, some CCP and foreign policy officials
have told us that China is less susceptible to
international pressure on the Tibet issue and should
"ignore" the meeting, as China's protests only
increase the Dalai Lama's status. End Summary.

"First Warn, Then React"
--------------


2. (C) Ma Rong (protect),a Peking University
sociologist who frequently advises the Communist
Party's United Front Work Department (UFWD) on Tibet
policy, described the Chinese leadership as under
intense pressure from "Han nationalist" sentiment
that has grown stronger due to recent years' ethnic
unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang. The Chinese public,
he told PolOff February 9, held very negative views
of the Dalai Lama, blamed the Chinese government for
being too soft on minorities, and did not support
dialogue between the UFWD and the Dalai Lama's
representatives (reftel). Adding to the pressure,
high-ranking CCP leaders were preoccupied with
jockeying for succession position in the run-up to
the 18th Party Congress in 2012. In such an
atmosphere, Ma argued, there was no tolerance within
the leadership for moderate views on Tibet or
minority policy. Much of the Chinese regime's
recent international behavior, including its hard
line against foreign leaders meeting the Dalai Lama,
was driven primarily by this combination of domestic
nationalistic pressure and competition for power.


3. (C) Ma said that China had adopted a policy of
"warn, then punish" toward the POTUS-Dalai Lama
meeting. He predicted that China's reaction would
be more severe than following President Bush's
attendance at the October 2007 Congressional Gold
Medal ceremony for the Dalai Lama. Ma pointed to a
February 2 statement by UFWD Executive Vice Minister
Zhu Weiqun that there would be "serious damage"
(yanzhong pohuai) to bilateral relations should U.S.
leaders meet with the Dalai Lama. China's reaction
would not be restricted to mere rhetoric, though he
could only speculate about the specific steps China
might take. Ma said China might show its
displeasure over the meeting by reducing cooperation
on security issues important to the United States.
Domestically, China might choose to make high-
profile arrests of Tibetan monks after the meeting
and to increase punishments given to Tibetan
political prisoners: "A sentence that would have
been two years may become 10 years." Ultimately, Ma
said, Tibetans would be the "victims" of the
leadership's anger over the meeting.


4. (C) Zhang Yong, Managing Editor of the Global
Times' English-language edition (the Global Times is
a nationalistic tabloid that has given heavy
coverage to China's official protests over the
meeting) and a former reporter and editor of
People's Daily, told PolOff February 9 that he
thought the Chinese government reaction to the
President's meeting with the Dalai Lama would be
relatively restrained: "loud but short-lived." He
said the Chinese government was motivated to repair
U.S.-China relations and therefore would not take
concrete action to "punish" the United States.

Chinese Government "under Public Pressure"
--------------


BEIJING 00000358 002 OF 003



5. (C) In a meeting with PolOff February 5, Tanzen
Lhundup (Danzeng Lunzhu),Vice Director of the
Institute for Sociology and Economics at the Chinese
Center for Tibetan Studies, a think tank associated
with the UFWD, likewise stressed that Chinese
leaders were under public pressure to respond
forcefully to the POTUS-Dalai Lama meeting,
especially coming so soon after the Taiwan arms
sales announcement. He blamed China's media,
including Global Times, for whipping up
nationalistic sentiment. China's newspapers could
provide thoughtful coverage of Iran and North Korea,
but became "stupid" (i.e., emotional and jingoistic)
when reporting on Tibet. Emphasizing that he was
speaking in a personal capacity, Tanzen Lhundup said
he understood the domestic political factors at work
in the United States that made it difficult for
American presidents not to meet with the Dalai Lama.
He believed the meeting would cause Tibetans to have
unrealistic expectations of a breakthrough in PRC-
Dalai Lama talks. Rather than make compromise
easier, however, the meeting would harden Chinese
attitudes by reinforcing the notion that the Dalai
Lama used foreigners to put pressure on Beijing,
Tanzen Lhundup said.

"Tibetans Are Very Happy"
--------------


6. (S) Several Tibetan monks PolOff spoke with in
Beijing expressed overwhelming support for President
Obama's decision to meet with the Dalai Lama.
Suoang Zhaxi (strictly protect),a monk from Yushu
County, Qinghai province, currently studying at a
Beijing Buddhist college, told PolOff February 6
that he was "very happy" that the meeting would take
place. He had originally invited PolOff to meet him
at his school on Beijing's northern outskirts but
later asked PolOff to meet him downtown, saying
PolOff's presence near the school might invite
unwanted attention from authorities. The upcoming
meeting, he said, made February a "sensitive time"
for Tibetans, and he had to be cautious about
contact with foreigners. He hoped to obtain a
"video" of the POTUS-Dalai Lama meeting similar to
the video of the 2007 Congressional Gold Medal
ceremony, which he said was widely distributed among
Tibetans in China.


7. (S) Gebchak Wangdrak Rinpoche (strictly protect),
the abbot of a Buddhist nunnery in Nangqian County,
Qinghai, told PolOff February 8 that all of the 400
nuns at the nunnery knew about the meeting and were
excited about it. He said that Tibetans in southern
Qinghai were receiving news about the Dalai Lama's
trip to Washington both from the Voice of America's
Tibetan service, which is available via satellite
radio, and through word of mouth. The Rinpoche
dismissed the idea that official anger over the
meeting might lead to a deterioration of human
rights conditions in Tibet, saying the show of
support from the United States was very important to
Tibetans. Similarly, Luosang Cicheng Pengcuo
(strictly protect),a living Buddha at Lucang
Monastery in Guinan County, Qinghai, told PolOff
February 6 that "90 percent of Tibetans" in China
knew about the upcoming meeting and were happy it
would take place.

"China Should Ignore the Dalai Lama"
--------------


8. (C) In recent private conversations, some CCP
cadres have shrugged off news of the POTUS-Dalai
Lama meeting, saying China's growing international
clout made it less vulnerable to international
pressure on the Tibet issue. Zhang Jianguo
(protect),a deputy director of the State Bureau of
Foreign Experts, raised the topic of Tibet during a
dinner with PolOff February 3. Zhang argued that
China paid "too much attention" to the Dalai Lama.
The PRC should stop protesting the Dalai Lama's
meetings with foreign leaders because "making such a
fuss only gives the Dalai Lama more status than he
deserves...if President Obama wants to meet him,
then so what?" Zhang noted that his ideas were
unconventional in the CCP, but he nevertheless felt
that China, given its growing international
strength, should show more confidence regarding
Tibet.

BEIJING 00000358 003 OF 003




9. (C) In a February 3 meeting with Chengdu Consul
General, Yangling Dorje (protect),a senior Tibetan
CCP cadre and the former Chairman of the Tibet
Autonomous Region's Chinese People's Political
Consultative Conference, expressed similar
sentiments. China, he said, was now a great power
and was too strong a country to be pushed around by
the agitation of overseas Tibetans and foreigners.
The Global Times' Zhang Yong and Beijing University
Assistant Professor Yu Wanli each separately
expressed the same sentiments to PolOff February 9.
Zhang complained that China's continued "severe
overreaction" to international leaders' meetings
with the Dalai Lama imposed costs only on China.
"We react to his meetings, and our reaction has
absolutely no effect at all," he moped. "Better to
ignore him."


10. (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen
Chengdu.
HUNTSMAN