DESPITE LISBON TREATY, BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000137

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2030
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EFIN KIPR SENV EINV ETRD PHUM
CH, EUN
SUBJECT: DESPITE LISBON TREATY, BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS
WITH EU MEMBER STATES WILL REMAIN CENTRAL WITH CHINA

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Though uncertainty exists on how EU-PRC
relations might change in the wake of the recent ratification
of the Lisbon Treaty, the PRC hopes to "consolidate strategic
trust" in the relationship, according to an MFA official.
PRC and EU contacts alike concur that while EU-PRC relations
will become more prominent, PRC bilateral relations with EU
member states will continue to take precedence. A UK
diplomat suggested that the EU can now pursue foreign policy
on a "grander scale" in terms of policy content and
institutional engagement. While one PRC scholar praised the
choice of Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy for EU
president because of his consensus-building skills, another
warned against the EU using its greater institutional heft to
"interfere" in PRC sovereignty and human rights issues.
Differences among EU members states on such issues as the
lifting the EU arms embargo and granting the PRC market
economy status will likely surface under the new EU
dispensation, according to a Spanish diplomat. End summary.

Bilateral Relations are Primary
--------------


2. (C) MFA European Affairs Department European Union
Division Deputy Director Fu Wenyan told EmbOffs December 8
that the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty was a very
important development and the EU would now have more
engagement with the PRC. China wanted to consolidate the
strategic trust in the relationship and move forward in the
strategic partnership, she said. Separately concurring,
Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes of
Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) European Studies
Institute Director Feng Zhongping told PolOff December 17
that the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty had created high
expectations in the PRC for the future of the EU, but it was
premature to predict the extent of change in EU-PRC
relations. The PRC would now have "two important
relationships" (i.e., with the EU and with each member
state),but because each member state determined its foreign
policy, bilateral relations would remain the central
relationship with China, he said.

No Disappointment over Van Rompuy
--------------


3. (C) Feng dismissed reports of disappointment among
ordinary Europeans over the choice of Belgian Prime Minister
Herman Van Rompuy for the European presidency. He said the
EU wanted an "acceptable" leader who could achieve consensus.
Due to the Belgian PM's positive record of governing the
culturally fractious nation of Belgium, and his reputation
for amicability among all political stripes, he was the
perfect choice for this role. Furthermore, Feng added, in
the eyes of China, "the strongest leader is the one who best
reaches consensus." While the PRC needed to recognize this
new development in the EU, China would still focus on the
"big powers" among the member states such as Germany and
France when addressing EU issues, he said. In the last 10
years, Feng claimed, enthusiasm had decreased significantly
among the European public for the EU. Europeans did not
perceive the utility of the institution, and too much
uncertainty existed over the roles of its central leadership
in the EU's various institutions. This was an uncertainty
shared by the PRC, and the PRC "does not like uncertainty in
its relationships," he said.

Post-Lisbon EU to "Interfere" More in PRC Affairs?
-------------- --------------


4. (C) While bilateral relations would not diminish at all,
the PRC would increasingly deal with the EU, MFA-affiliated
China Institute of International Studies (CIIS) European
Union Studies Department Deputy Director Li Weiwei told
PolOff December 18. The "conduct of the EU" would largely
determine the course of EU-PRC relations, Li said. The PRC
was concerned that the EU might now step up "interference" on
PRC sovereignty or human rights issues. The PRC needed
better assurance that the EU understood and appreciated
China's views on human rights, even when disagreement
existed, she said. Furthermore, the EU, in pursuing its own
economic interests, had to take into account China's economic
development needs, "because the Chinese want a good life,
too."

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EAS Will Make the EU Role Clearer, but Risks Endure
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Though a larger delegation representing the entire EU
would supersede the work currently carried out by the EU
Commission, PRC-EU relations would likely change little, EU
Delegation First Secretary Filip Grzegorzewski told PolOff
December 9. The External Action Service (EAS) established
under the Lisbon Treaty would now serve as the focus for
foreign policy coordination and implementation, whereas
previously, EU foreign policy coordination was divided
between the EU Commission and rotating presidency, he said.
Grzegorzewski noted that under the Lisbon Treaty, bilateral
relations could be circumscribed by the need to conform to EU
consensus (which would supersede an individual member state's
foreign policy position),a point also noted by Belgian
Embassy Deputy Chief of Mission Didier Vanderhasselt, who
told PolOff December 14 that if the new EU structures were
implemented as planned, the work of EU member state bilateral
missions would gradually diminish. Vanderhasselt noted,
however, that as the EAS began to define its scope of work
and composition, it ran the risk of alienating small member
states that felt pressured to conform to the positions of
larger states, and who would therefore not view the EAS as
"their own". In addition, the composition of EU delegations
abroad would differ from country to country depending on
issues involved, but for the moment there was no sign as to
what the EU policy on China would be, he said. Right now,
the EU had to "master the process," said Vanderhasselt.

As China Gets Stronger, the EU Can Engage More Effectively
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The EU could now pursue foreign policy on a grander
scale in terms of policy content and institutional
engagement, British Embassy First Secretary Gareth Ward told
PolOff January 5, because the new EU leadership had a more
"credible" mandate and established position. The EU would
now need to better articulate its position on the PRC,
especially after the tension over the last couple of years.
The Chinese had been frustrated with the EU, when, for
example, counter to PRC expectations, French President
Nicolas Sarkozy had met the Dalai Lama in December 2008. The
PRC perceived unfairness in EU media coverage and EU
positions regarding human rights in China, and harbored
resentment over anti-PRC incidents during the Olympic torch
relays, Ward explained.


7. (C) From the EU perspective, the PRC did not engage on the
strategic partnership. The latest rounds of the EU-PRC Human
Rights Dialogue had not been constructive, and many in the EU
felt China was becoming more hardline on issues, leading to
consideration among some member states of "reciprocal
engagement" with China on controversial issues. The UK, in
contrast, supported "constructive engagement" and was
concerned "reciprocal engagement" might create more problems
than it solved. From the EU point of view, Ward suggested,
four issues were of top priority: trade and investment with
better market access, climate change, global security, and
human rights. EAS High Representative for Foreign Affairs
and Security Policy Catherine Ashton would be able to engage
consistently over time on these issues, which would represent
an improvement over current EU-PRC negotiations on these
issues, Ward said.


8. (C) Bilateral relations would retain their importance in
addressing issues between the PRC and EU member states, but
countries such as the UK would also work with the EU to
maximize influence, Ward said. Member nations' political
leadership would also influence whether a country stressed
its bilateral or EU member state relations with China.
Should the Conservatives win the 2010 election in UK, he
speculated, more emphasis would be placed on the bilateral
relationship. The EU did not possess the negotiating tools
of its individual member states, but instead derived its
strength from "values," and the PRC was not used to dealing
with this construct, Ward said. The PRC did not want to deal
with the EU because it preferred to play one country against
another within Europe to achieve its objectives (for example,
Spain, which is more accommodating to China on Taiwan and the
Dalai Lama),he explained.

Rotating Presidency Lives On, But Things Will Change
-------------- --------------

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9. (C) At the New Year, Spain had assumed the rotating
presidency of the EU, but now Spain had to negotiate with EAS
High Representative Catherine Ashton on issues of foreign
policy, Spanish Embassy Political Counsellor Carmen Cano told
PolOff January 13. Key differences now were that prior to
the Lisbon Treaty, demarches involved the rotating
presidency, but now only the EU delegation would deliver
them, she said. The rotating presidency would stay, but a
new entity called the "trio" would be established to add
continuity to issues being addressed and to avoid one country
pushing for topics specific to its region. The trio would be
composed of the current rotating presidency and the two that
would follow (in this case, Spain, Belgium and Hungary),she
explained. Until the transition was settled, Spain would
take the lead representing the EU, and the next EU summit
would take place in Spain, though that would change for good
once the transition was complete, with subsequent summits
taking place either in Brussels or the third country, Cano
said. The Lisbon Treaty allowed the EAS High Representative
more flexibility and could bring up non-controversial issues
on behalf of the EU without prior consultation with member
states, where before that was not the case, she said.

Spain's Influence May Lead to Addressing Controversial Issues
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Noting that Spain maintained a closer bilateral
relationship with China than other EU member states, Spanish
Embassy Political Counselor Carmen Cano told PolOff January
13 that disagreements within the EU over the PRC might now be
brought to the surface. In contrast to other EU leaders,
Spanish Prime Minister Jose Zapatero hoped to speed up work
on the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the PRC and
to address issues of PRC concern, including the EU arms
embargo and market economy status, she said. Cano suggested
that even if the arms embargo were to be lifted, concerns
over possible renewed arms trade with China could be
addressed through the EU Common Position, which prohibited
arms exports to any country with significant human rights
issues. Lifting the embargo, however, would take that issue
"off the table" for the Chinese. She added, however, that
the symbolism of lifting the arms embargo was too
controversial within the EU and its chances "are very
remote."
HUNTSMAN