THAILAND: PM ABHISIT TAKES A STAND, FORCES DEPUTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000061

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: PM ABHISIT TAKES A STAND, FORCES DEPUTY
MINISTER TO RESIGN

REF: BANGKOK 46 (CABINET RESHUFFLE)

BANGKOK 00000061 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POL Counselor George P. Kent, reasons 1.4 (b, d)

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) Deputy Public HEALTH Minister Manit Nopamornbodi
tendered his resignation January 10 in the wake of a scandal
involving planned procurement irregularities that already
cost the HEALTH Minster his job (reftel). The resignation
represented a sharp about face for both Manit and his
political patrons in the coalition Phumjai Thai party, as
just last week Manit -- and the party -- had insisted he
would not step down from the post, setting up a showdown with
PM Abhisit, who demanded Manit resign. After the show of
their defiance, Abhisit gave Manit and Phumjai Thai a
deadline, and they caved.


2. (C) Comment: ONE of the knocks against Thai PM Abhisit's
first year in office has been, ironically, that he's a nice
guy -- perhaps too nice for Thai politics. A year on, he may
be finding more spine, taking on a key coalition ally months
after a personnel showdown with the Crown Prince over the
Police Chief nomination. Most pundits -- and several
insiders we talked to January 11 -- hailed PM Abhisit's
decision to force Manit's resignation. Despite the Thai
tradition of coalition cabinet personnel moves generally
remaining the provenance of the coalition party rather than
the Prime Minister, Abhisit took a stand for his leadership
and the government's governance record in the face of
corruption allegations when it became apparent that Phumjai
Thai intended to try and ride out the controversy involving
Manit. While the PM may have ruffled some feathers in
Phumjai Thai, a key Phumjai Thai insider spoke to us January
11 with newfound respect for Abhisit. He will almost
certainly gain public credibility by going toe to toe with
Phumjai Thai and demonstrating leadership often missing in

2009. End Summary and Comment.

CONTRAST IN POLITICAL STYLES
--------------


3. (C) The contrast between the manner in which the ruling
Democrat party and coalition partner Phumjai Thai initially
chose to deal with the aftermath of the Public HEALTH
Ministry scandal could not have been more clear, nor more
representative of the operating political norms of the two
parties. The controversy involved alleged mismanagement of
86 billion baht in the Thai Khemkhaeng ("Thailand: Investing
from Strength to Strength") program; a rural doctor activist
had blown the whistle on the planned procurement
irregularities before they actually occurred. PM Abhisit and
the Democrat party reacted to the controversy almost
immediately by moving into damage control mode and compelling
Public HEALTH Minister Witthaya Kaewparadai (a Democrat) to
announce his resignation (Witthaya was subsequently named
Parliamentary whip for the party). Abhisit's reputation as a
clean reformer has been a central component of his political
persona, and the decision to replace Witthaya was seen as a
no-brainer.


4. (C) Phumjai Thai, on the other hand, greeted the
controversy with what amounted to a collective shrug,
publicly vowing that Manit would stay in place as the Deputy
Minister unless he was formally found guilty of wrong doing.
The decision to stand pat and keep Manit in as Deputy --
despite credible accusations of intended corruption -- not
only highlighted the Phumjai Thai party's well-documented
reputation for playing fast and loose with the rules, but
also represented a public challenge to the PM, ONE in a
series over the past year. The subsequent media coverage of
PM Abhisit even in traditionally sympathetic quarters quickly
turned negative, portraying the PM as unable to bring Phumjai

BANGKOK 00000061 002.2 OF 002


Thai to heel.

ABHISIT SAYS: "OFF WITH HIS HEAD" - AND GAINS RESPECT
-------------- --------------


5. (C) In the end, the PM answered his critics when he
publicly announced that he would not allow Manit to remain a
member of the cabinet, apparently calculating that Phumjai
Thai would not jeopardize the entire coalition simply over
his intervention with ONE isolated cabinet position,
particularly ONE belonging to the Matchima faction within
Phumjai Thai not directly affiliated with party godfather
Newin Chidchob. Phumjai Thai spokesman and Newin lieutenant
Supachai Jaisamut suggested to us January 11 that the PM's
calculation was accurate, telling us that the party was
effectively powerless in the face of the PM's decision and
would have to accept Manit's sacking and "move on."


6. (C) Supachai also told us that his decision to confront
Phumjai Thai over Manit may have yielded him some begrudging
respect from his coalition partners. Supachai and others in
Phumjai Thai have consistently derided PM Abhisit as "soft"
and "weak," but even Supachai had to admit Abhisit had shown
his mettle by locking horns with Phumjai Thai, telling us
that Abhisit had "grown" into his role as PM.


7. (C) Privy Councilor Siddhi Savetsila similarly told
Ambassador and PolCouns January 11 that Abhisit needed to
demonstrate more decisive resolve as PM in 2010, for the sake
of the country. The Manit sacking was a good start, using
the power of the PM job to ride herd on the fractious
coalition, but Siddhi said he had recently told Abhisit's
father, Siddhi's long-time personal physician, that many
other "tough" decisions were necessary for the national
interest. Siddhi mentioned Abhisit's indirect stare-down of
the Crown Prince over the selection of police chief in late
2009, but stated that now was the time for Abhisit to make
his candidate, Acting Police Chief Pratheep, the permanent
chief.
JOHN