THAILAND: MFA ANTICIPATING OCTOBER ELECTIONS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000481 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM SMIG TH BU SUBJECT: THAILAND: MFA ANTICIPATING OCTOBER ELECTIONS IN BURMA, POSSIBLE PM VISIT IN MAY REF: BANGKOK 381 BANGKOK 00000481 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. MFA Burma Unit Chief Arunrung Phothong Humphreys told us February 24 that the RTG still believed that Burma would hold elections in October of this year, despite some rumors that they would be held in May (reftel). The RTG intends to increase assistance to Burma for development activities following the election. Arunrong said that the MFA had proposed to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's office that the PM visit Burma in May, a visit that the MFA no longer considers contingent on whether the GOB permits a meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK),a condition which derailed Abhisit's intent to travel to Burma in 2009 when Thailand was ASEAN Chair. Arunrung expressed concern that the U.S. would reverse its engagement policy with Burma due to the regime's refusal to take positive steps towards an inclusive democratic process. Leaders of the Free Burma Rangers (FBR) told us separately February 24 that regime/proxy pressure on Karen inside Burma had lessened in the 2009/10 dry season even though there had been no significant steps by the regime to negotiate with opposition groups or ethnic minorities. FBR suggested that the lessened pressure might be due to the GOB's focus on the elections. End summary. -------------- RTG STILL EXPECTS ELECTIONS IN OCTOBER -------------- ¶2. (C) MFA Burma Unit Chief Arunrung discussed the upcoming elections, as well as other issues in Burma, with us February ¶24. Arunrung acknowledged that she had heard rumors that the GOB was considering holding elections in May (Note: see reftel for mention of such rumors during DAS Marciel's recent visit. End note). However, she claimed that this rumor seemed to be coming from only one source, and the RTG still believed that the elections would not be held until October. She suggested that it would be risky for the GOB to hold the elections in May, as it would not allow adequate time to engage with opposition parties, particularly ASSK and the National League for Democracy (NLD),or to engage ethnic minority groups along the border, specifically in attempting to transform ethnic militias into government border guard forces. ¶3. (C) Arunrong also shared some details of the MFA's annual in-house assessment of Burma. The MFA assessed that the RTG had not placed enough emphasis on explaining to Rangoon its expectations of what the upcoming election in Burma should look like in order to ensure a more free and fair process. The report also concluded that the RTG should implement activities that would assist Burma to become a more democratic society, emphasizing capacity building and human resource development activities. Arunrung said the RTG currently provided assistance to the GOB in the education, health, and agricultural sectors. Arunrung noted that the report recommends that the RTG expand the scope of these assistance programs after the election. (Note: Reports provided to post by the Thai International Development Cooperation Agency (TICA) that detail official development assistance provided to Burma show a decrease in assistance to Burma in 2009 compared to prior years, and indicate that Cambodia and Laos regularly receive more assistance from Thailand than Burma. End note.) ¶4. (C) When asked about ASEAN efforts to encourage transparency in the Burmese election, Arunrong noted that ASEAN Foreign Ministers made a clear statement to the GOB's Foreign Minister at the ASEAN Retreat in Danang in January that the upcoming elections would be a turning point for Burma as well as for ASEAN. The FMs pointed out that the GOB must make its own decisions regarding electoral laws and processes, but that the regime's approach during this crucial time would affect the credibility of the ASEAN community as well. -------------- -------------- BANGKOK 00000481 002.2 OF 002 PM ABHISIT'S PLANNED VISIT TO BURMA - STILL ON HOLD -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The MFA continued to discuss with PM Abhisit's office his long delayed visit to Burma, now aiming for May (note: Abhisit initially hoped to travel to Burma in June 2009. End note),according to Arunrong. While the RTG had previously made an Abhisit meeting with ASSK a condition for a visit, she explained that the MFA no longer considered this a non-negotiable issue, since Thailand was no longer the Chair of ASEAN. The MFA had recommended to the PM's office that while it would be desirable for Abhisit to meet ASSK, such a meeting should be left up to the GOB. ¶6. (C) The PM's Deputy Secretary General and Acting Government Spokesman Panitan Wattanayakorn, who had discussed the potential visit with DAS Marciel (reftel),acknowledged to us February 25 that Thai officials were discussing possibly changing the preconditions of the visit in order to increase the likelihood of a visit occurring. While the MFA had recommended dropping the ASSK demand as precondition, other "advisers" disagreed with this approach. In any event, the Burmese Government would have the final word on any visit, in terms of timing and meetings possible. As a result, he emphasized that a May visit was not yet certain. -------------- RTG VIEWS ON U.S. RE-ENGAGEMENT with BURMA -------------- 6.(C) Arunrung expressed satisfaction that the USG had increased engagement with Burma and noted the MFA's concern that the engagement policy might be reversed due to a lack of signs that the GOB was making positive steps - even small ones - towards a more democratic, open society. Poloffs noted that the USG had hoped that Burma would make more positive steps towards engaging ASSK, the NLD, and ethnic groups in advance of the elections. -------------- NEGOTIATIONS WITH ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS -------------- ¶7. (C) In a discussion of ethnic minority groups in Burma, Arunrung expressed optimism about the GOB's efforts in this regard. She noted that Beijing could potentially play a productive role in these negotiations, as China had experience in dealing with the conflict between the Kokang minority group and the regime. The ethnic minority that was of the most concern to the Thai was the Wa, as they were stronger and more resistant to compromise than the other minority groups along the Burma-Thai border. ¶8. (C) Free Burma Ranger leaders claimed to us separately February 24 that 2008-2009 had been the quietest period in over 10 years in terms of clashes between the junta and armed ethnic minority groups. They suggested the decrease in offensives was likely the result of the GOB's focus on the upcoming elections rather than a desire to move towards negotiations. (note: This assessment does not entirely track with our understanding, since the June 2009 cross border flow of refugees fleeing fighting was the single largest cross-border movement in a decade). JOHN