THAILAND: MFA ANTICIPATING OCTOBER ELECTIONS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000481

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM SMIG TH BU
SUBJECT: THAILAND: MFA ANTICIPATING OCTOBER ELECTIONS IN
BURMA, POSSIBLE PM VISIT IN MAY

REF: BANGKOK 381

BANGKOK 00000481 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. MFA Burma Unit Chief Arunrung Phothong
Humphreys told us February 24 that the RTG still believed
that Burma would hold elections in October of this year,
despite some rumors that they would be held in May (reftel).
The RTG intends to increase assistance to Burma for
development activities following the election. Arunrong said
that the MFA had proposed to Prime Minister Abhisit
Vejjajiva's office that the PM visit Burma in May, a visit
that the MFA no longer considers contingent on whether the
GOB permits a meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK),a
condition which derailed Abhisit's intent to travel to Burma
in 2009 when Thailand was ASEAN Chair. Arunrung expressed
concern that the U.S. would reverse its engagement policy
with Burma due to the regime's refusal to take positive steps
towards an inclusive democratic process. Leaders of the Free
Burma Rangers (FBR) told us separately February 24 that
regime/proxy pressure on Karen inside Burma had lessened in
the 2009/10 dry season even though there had been no
significant steps by the regime to negotiate with opposition
groups or ethnic minorities. FBR suggested that the lessened
pressure might be due to the GOB's focus on the elections.
End summary.

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RTG STILL EXPECTS ELECTIONS IN OCTOBER
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2. (C) MFA Burma Unit Chief Arunrung discussed the upcoming
elections, as well as other issues in Burma, with us February

24. Arunrung acknowledged that she had heard rumors that the
GOB was considering holding elections in May (Note: see
reftel for mention of such rumors during DAS Marciel's recent
visit. End note). However, she claimed that this rumor
seemed to be coming from only one source, and the RTG still
believed that the elections would not be held until October.
She suggested that it would be risky for the GOB to hold the
elections in May, as it would not allow adequate time to
engage with opposition parties, particularly ASSK and the
National League for Democracy (NLD),or to engage ethnic
minority groups along the border, specifically in attempting
to transform ethnic militias into government border guard
forces.


3. (C) Arunrong also shared some details of the MFA's annual
in-house assessment of Burma. The MFA assessed that the RTG
had not placed enough emphasis on explaining to Rangoon its
expectations of what the upcoming election in Burma should
look like in order to ensure a more free and fair process.
The report also concluded that the RTG should implement
activities that would assist Burma to become a more
democratic society, emphasizing capacity building and human
resource development activities. Arunrung said the RTG
currently provided assistance to the GOB in the education,
health, and agricultural sectors. Arunrung noted that the
report recommends that the RTG expand the scope of these
assistance programs after the election. (Note: Reports
provided to post by the Thai International Development
Cooperation Agency (TICA) that detail official development
assistance provided to Burma show a decrease in assistance to
Burma in 2009 compared to prior years, and indicate that
Cambodia and Laos regularly receive more assistance from
Thailand than Burma. End note.)


4. (C) When asked about ASEAN efforts to encourage
transparency in the Burmese election, Arunrong noted that
ASEAN Foreign Ministers made a clear statement to the GOB's
Foreign Minister at the ASEAN Retreat in Danang in January
that the upcoming elections would be a turning point for
Burma as well as for ASEAN. The FMs pointed out that the GOB
must make its own decisions regarding electoral laws and
processes, but that the regime's approach during this crucial
time would affect the credibility of the ASEAN community as
well.

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BANGKOK 00000481 002.2 OF 002


PM ABHISIT'S PLANNED VISIT TO BURMA - STILL ON HOLD
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5. (C) The MFA continued to discuss with PM Abhisit's office
his long delayed visit to Burma, now aiming for May (note:
Abhisit initially hoped to travel to Burma in June 2009. End
note),according to Arunrong. While the RTG had previously
made an Abhisit meeting with ASSK a condition for a visit,
she explained that the MFA no longer considered this a
non-negotiable issue, since Thailand was no longer the Chair
of ASEAN. The MFA had recommended to the PM's office that
while it would be desirable for Abhisit to meet ASSK, such a
meeting should be left up to the GOB.


6. (C) The PM's Deputy Secretary General and Acting
Government Spokesman Panitan Wattanayakorn, who had discussed
the potential visit with DAS Marciel (reftel),acknowledged
to us February 25 that Thai officials were discussing
possibly changing the preconditions of the visit in order to
increase the likelihood of a visit occurring. While the MFA
had recommended dropping the ASSK demand as precondition,
other "advisers" disagreed with this approach. In any event,
the Burmese Government would have the final word on any
visit, in terms of timing and meetings possible. As a
result, he emphasized that a May visit was not yet certain.

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RTG VIEWS ON U.S. RE-ENGAGEMENT with BURMA
--------------

6.(C) Arunrung expressed satisfaction that the USG had
increased engagement with Burma and noted the MFA's concern
that the engagement policy might be reversed due to a lack of
signs that the GOB was making positive steps - even small
ones - towards a more democratic, open society. Poloffs
noted that the USG had hoped that Burma would make more
positive steps towards engaging ASSK, the NLD, and ethnic
groups in advance of the elections.

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NEGOTIATIONS WITH ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS
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7. (C) In a discussion of ethnic minority groups in Burma,
Arunrung expressed optimism about the GOB's efforts in this
regard. She noted that Beijing could potentially play a
productive role in these negotiations, as China had
experience in dealing with the conflict between the Kokang
minority group and the regime. The ethnic minority that was
of the most concern to the Thai was the Wa, as they were
stronger and more resistant to compromise than the other
minority groups along the Burma-Thai border.


8. (C) Free Burma Ranger leaders claimed to us separately
February 24 that 2008-2009 had been the quietest period in
over 10 years in terms of clashes between the junta and armed
ethnic minority groups. They suggested the decrease in
offensives was likely the result of the GOB's focus on the
upcoming elections rather than a desire to move towards
negotiations. (note: This assessment does not entirely track
with our understanding, since the June 2009 cross border flow
of refugees fleeing fighting was the single largest
cross-border movement in a decade).
JOHN