THAILAND: RED PLANS CRYSTALLIZE ON EVE OF THAKSIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000470 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR CASC TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: RED PLANS CRYSTALLIZE ON EVE OF THAKSIN FROZEN ASSETS JUDGMENT REF: A. BANGKOK 424 (ASSETS CASE) ¶B. BANGKOK 384 (BANGKOK ON EDGE) ¶C. BANGKOK 380 (STILL LOVE THAKSIN) Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) The Thai Supreme Court will issue the much anticipated verdict in the Thaksin assets case February 26. The judgment itself remains an unknown, with most contacts anticipating either a partial or full seizure of the frozen 76 billion baht (more than $2 billion). However, the Thaksin-affiliated United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (aka the "red shirts" or UDD) publicly announced February 24 that, regardless of the decision, protesters would begin descending upon Bangkok on March 12, with the protest expected to peak on March 14. The UDD's stated objective for the rally remained the same: to force the government to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. Red shirt core leaders hope that by holding the rally more than two weeks after the verdict, they may blunt efforts to paint the movement as singularly focused on Thaksin and his assets. Meanwhile, the UDD leadership announced they would not organize any protests in the immediate wake of tomorrow's judgment, though small scale red-shirt protests at the court and in other spots in Bangkok seemed likely to take place on Friday, February 26, as well as over the weekend. Our internal and consular guidance continues to advise vigilance and caution. ¶2. (C) Comment: Despite Super-Bowl like hype and anticipation about the court verdict, there is very little evidence to suggest there will be pandemonium and chaos in the streets of Bangkok in the immediate wake of the judgment. With red shirt protest plans now apparently locked-in for mid-March, the judgment seems poised to have its most immediate impact on the size and energy of the scheduled protest. The UDD publicly sticks to a stated goal of up to one million people, fueled by 100,000 pick-ups descending on Bangkok, but UDD estimates are notoriously inflated; 100,000 protesters appears to be a more realistic goal. ¶3. (C) Comment, cont: Chaturon Chaisang, a former DPM and close cohort of Thaksin's, told us February 25 that generating a large crowd mid-March would be easier if the court opted to strip Thaksin of all 76 billion baht. On the other hand, a partial return of the frozen assets would complicate efforts to mobilize massive numbers of people to travel to Bangkok. While no one has been willing to rule out the possibility of isolated incidents of violence after the ruling tomorrow, earlier fears about post-ruling rioting have largely given way to expectations of a relatively measured and low-key reaction February 26. What happens mid-March will likely be determined by the post-verdict reaction of key players, including Thaksin, red-shirt leaders, the government, and security officials. End Summary and Comment. THE VERDICT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On February 26 the Supreme Court will determine whether fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra intentionally concealed his assets while PM, whether he used the power of his office to artificially inflate the value of his Shin Corporation stockholdings, and whether to seize some or all of the approximately 73 billion baht (now worth more than 76 billion baht with interest) frozen by the RTG following the 2006 coup (REF A). The court is scheduled to begin reading the verdict -- which will include a lengthy recap of both the defense and prosecution's arguments -- around 1400 Bangkok time, with some analysts suggesting this process could take in excess of four hours. ¶5. (C) Informal soundings with contacts from across the political spectrum suggest that the court will either seize all of the assets, or a sizeable portion. Core red shirt leader Veera Musikapong told us on February 23 at UDD BANGKOK 00000470 002.2 OF 002 headquarters that he fully expected the Supreme Court would seize all of the assets, a position backed by former Foreign Minister Prasong Sunsiri (a yellow-shirt supporter) and many others. Niphon Promphan, a trusted advisor of Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn and former Secretary-General for Prime Minister Abhisit, told us February 24 in contrast that he believed the Court would seize two thirds of the assets, thereby restoring to Thaksin the amount he entered office with. THE LIKELY REACTION -------------- ¶6. (C) Red shirt leaders have maintained for several weeks now that they do not have any plans to protest in the immediate wake of the verdict. Veera reiterated this position February 23, telling us that the UDD had decided to put some distance between the reading of the verdict and their mass rally. He did note, however, that the "Red Siam" faction, which has parted ways with the UDD, had called on supporters to protest in front of the court February 26; Special Branch police sources predicted 2000-3000 may rally. Sunai from Human Rights Watch told us February 25 that Udon Thani province red shirt baron Kwanchai Phraipana (REF C) was already mobilizing red shirt supporters to come to Bangkok for the verdict. RTG spokesperson Dr. Panitan Wattanayakorn told us February 25 the RTG would leave nothing to chance, and would stand up a command center at the court ready to deal with any eventuality, with three police anti-riot companies, an EOD squad, and ten companies in reserve. Panitan also cautioned not to take the red shirts at their word, telling us he did not necessarily trust that the red shirts would delay their rally until mid-March. RED PLANS -------------- ¶7. (C) On February 24, following a red shirt planning session, the UDD leadership announced the red shirts would stage their much-hyped "Million Man March" beginning March 12, with crowds poised to peak on March 14. The plan called for UDD activities to commence on the provincial level immediately, with local UDD and Puea Thai political party leaders given specific recruiting targets they would be obligated to meet as part of the overall push to rally one million supporters in Bangkok on March 14. The UDD confirmed once again that its objective was to compel the government to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. UDD spokesmen repeated what Veera told us: the plan was for 100,000 pick-up trucks with supporters to flood Bangkok, shutting down key intersections and attempting to bring down the government. ¶8. (C) Having repeatedly scheduled and cancelled rally plans with the frequency of a runway model changing outfits, questions have begun to surface about the UDD's ability to mount the so-called "Showdown Rally." The repeated cancellations, coupled with persistent rumors about UDD financing problems, rifts among its leadership factions, waning enthusiasm for the movement, as well the RTG's successful use of the Internal Security Act to deal with red protests, had contributed to an overall sense that perhaps the UDD's best days were behind it. Now, having finally fixed the protest date and announced plans to topple the government through the combined pressure of the largest group of red clad supporters since last April, paradoxically the pressure is on the UDD to try and back up its strong words. ¶9. (U) Our internal and consular guidance remains the same: pay attention to events, avoid demonstrations, and use good judgment. JOHN