SCENESETTER FOR CONGRESSMAN FALEOMAVAEGA,S JANUARY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000043 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON H PLEASE PASS TO CODEL FALEOMAVAEGA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CONGRESSMAN FALEOMAVAEGA,S JANUARY 16-17 VISIT TO BANGKOK BANGKOK 00000043 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) This message is Sensitive but Unclassified. Please handle accordingly. ¶2. (SBU) Congressman Faleomavaega, Embassy Bangkok warmly welcomes your visit. You will arrive January 16 to a Kingdom of Thailand divided politically and focused inward, uncertain about the country's future after revered but ailing 82 year old King Bhumibol eventually passes. Despite ongoing domestic discord, Thailand's strategic importance to the U.S. cannot be overstated. As one of only five U.S. treaty allies in Asia, Thailand remains crucial to U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. The U.S. mission in Thailand -- which is one of the largest in the world with over 2000 employees from nearly 40 different departments and agencies -- affords the U.S. a regional operating platform that would be almost impossible to replicate elsewhere. In just the last three months alone, the U.S.-Thai partnership has yielded a promising new lead in the drive to develop an HIV vaccination and the seizure of more than 35 tons of North Korean weapons, two examples which serve to illustrate the depth and breadth of a relationship that provides incalculable benefits in the military, law enforcement, and health/disease research fields. Your meeting with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs offers an opportunity to thank the Thai for our productive alliance partnership, and to express our support for Thailand's democracy to meet its current challenges and emerge strengthened. Temporary Calm in a Troubled Kingdom -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The last eighteen months were turbulent for Thailand. Court decisions forced two Prime Ministers from office, and twice the normal patterns of political life took a back seat to disruptive protests in the streets. The yellow-shirted People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) occupied Government House from August to December 2008, shutting down Bangkok's airports for eight days, to protest governments affiliated with ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The red-shirted United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD),followers of Thaksin, disrupted a regional Asian Summit and sparked riots in Bangkok in mid-April 2009 after Thaksin, now a fugitive abroad in the wake of an abuse of power conviction, called for a revolution to bring him home. 2010 promises to be just as contentious, with Thaksin and the red shirts having vowed to redouble their efforts to topple the government in the New Year. While both yellow and red try to lay exclusive claim to the mantle of democracy, neither is truly democratic in intent or tactics. ¶4. (SBU) The current PM, Abhisit Vejjajiva, is a photogenic, eloquent 44-year old Oxford graduate who generally has progressive instincts and says the right things about basic freedoms, social inequities, policy towards Burma, and how to address the troubled deep south, afflicted by a grinding ethno-nationalist Muslim-Malay separatist insurgency. He is beset with a fractious coalition, as well as a resurgent post-2006 coup military. ¶5. (SBU) While Thailand in 2009 was more stable than in 2008, mid-April 2009 red riots notwithstanding, few observers believe that the deep political and social divides can be bridged until after King Bhumibol passes and Thailand's tectonic plates shift. Nearly everyone expects the monarchy to shrink and change in function after succession. How much will change is open to question, with many institutions, figures, and political forces positioning for influence, not only over redefining the institution of monarchy but, equally fundamentally, what it means to be Thai. Engaging a long-term ally and friend strategically -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Both major parties in Thai politics -- the ruling Democrats and the opposition, Thaksin-affiliated Puea Thai BANGKOK 00000043 002 OF 003 (For Thai) party -- are favorable towards the U.S.; in fact, there are no radical, non-middle of the road parties represented in the Thai parliament. The USG has consistently stressed the importance of all sides working out differences within the democratic framework and without resort to violence, as well as our support for long-time friend Thailand to work through its current difficulties and emerge as a more participatory democracy. ¶7. (SBU) The North Korea challenge via implementation of UNSCR 1874, Burma policy, the development of ASEAN, and contentious relations with Cambodia are key foreign policy issues to raise with the MFA. The rise of China is another strategic issue worth addressing. ¶8. (SBU) There are several bilateral concerns of note. On refugees, the recent forced repatriation of two groups of Lao Hmong in late December provoked an international outcry; Thailand continues to host more than 140,000 Burmese and facilitate resettlement of more than 14,000 refugees to the U.S. annually. Thai authorities facilitated the arrest of notorious Russian arms trafficker Viktor Bout in March 2008, and though a lower court ruled against the extradition request in August of 2009, we remain hopeful this ruling will be overturned on appeal. Owing to our longstanding bilateral commercial treaty, U.S. firms receive preferred national treatment in a number of sectors, bolstering a strong trade and investment relationship, but Thai officials need to do more to strengthen the investment climate, particularly on Customs reform and intellectual property rights enforcement. Enduring value from the relationship -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Regional operational platform: The U.S. mission in Thailand is one of the largest and most diverse in the world - with over 2000 employees representing nearly 40 different departments and agencies - for good reason: we can accomplish a tremendous amount in Thailand, not only bilaterally but as a regional platform, often in ways that would be almost impossible to replicate elsewhere. More than half of the mission's employees work regionally, not bilaterally, and Bangkok's role as a regional operational, assistance, financial/IT support, and training hub for the USG will continue to expand in the coming years. ¶10. (SBU) Health/disease research: With approximately 400 Mission staff working on health issues, the Embassy hosts one of the USG's largest efforts to fight the world's most dangerous diseases: malaria; TB; dengue; HIV/AIDS; and pandemic influenza. CDC, USAID, USDA/APHIS, and the Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences (AFRIMS) collaborate with Thai counterparts on basic research and trial vaccines, and are platforms for assistance throughout the region. The sophistication of the Thai scientific and public health community makes collaboration as useful to the USG as it is to the Thai. A number of important breakthroughs, such as in the prevention of HIV/AIDS transmission from mothers to children, were developed here, and the first partially successful phase III, double blind trial for a potential HIV vaccine occurred in 2009; a second such trial run by CDC is currently ongoing. ¶11. (SBU) Mil-Mil ties: As one of five U.S. treaty allies in Asia and straddling a major force projection air/sea corridor, Thailand is crucial to U.S. security interests well beyond Southeast Asia, and facilitates military exercises that would be difficult to duplicate elsewhere. ¶12. (SBU) Law enforcement: 40 years of law enforcement cooperation initially focused on counter-narcotics efforts has expanded to all aspects of transnational crime, defending U.S. interests and securing extraditions of both U.S. citizens and third country nationals, and building capacity in the Thai criminal justice system. Eighteen federal and BANGKOK 00000043 003 OF 003 local law enforcement agencies are currently represented in the Embassy. The U.S. and Thailand co-host the International Law Enforcement Academy, a regional platform to promote law enforcement professionalism. JOHN