THAILAND: MINORITY COALITION PARTNERS SUBMIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000281 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2020 TAGS: PREL PGOV TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: MINORITY COALITION PARTNERS SUBMIT CHARTER CHANGE PROPOSAL REF: BANGKOK 227: DEMOCRATS OPPOSE CHARTER CHANGES BANGKOK 00000281 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POL Counselor George Kent, REASON 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (U) Summary: The five junior partners in the ruling government coalition moved forward February 3 with filing a motion to change two provisions of the constitution, while continuing to profess their commitment to the coalition. The partners seek to alter the articles in the constitution that deal with the parliamentary electoral system -- the key sticking point between the Democrat Party and its junior partners -- as well as parliamentary oversight of international agreements (reftel). In order to pass the single proposed motion, the coalition partners would have to enlist the support of either the Democrat Party, which has already rejected the proposal, or the opposition Puea Thai party, which refuses to support anything short of a full return to the 1997 Constitution. Neither party seems likely to support the proposal in the near-term. ¶2. (C) Comment: Some political observers have interpreted this move by the government's junior partners as a sign of deepening fissures within the coalition. Our soundings suggest this analysis is overly alarmist. The decision to move forward more likely represents an effort to keep the proposed move to single district constituencies -- a key strategic goal for smaller parties -- on life support. Several of members of the coalition, led most notably by Phumjai Thai (PJT),have concluded that the Democrat Party may ultimately come to realize that altering the system of selecting seats is in their own strategic best interests. Until the Democrats come to this conclusion, however, this proposal is unlikely to advance. As for the immediate future of the government, despite public rumblings from members of the coalition parties about promises made and broken, Abhisit Vejjajiva's government appears poised to withstand the no-confidence motion planned by the opposition for later this month or March. End Summary and Comment. FILING JUST THE FIRST STEP -------------- ¶3. (U) The five junior coalition parties -- Phumjai Thai (PJT),Chart Thai Pattana (CTP),Puea Phaendin, Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, and the Social Action Party -- filed a single motion with House Speaker Chai Chidchob on February 3 to amend the constitution. The motion would adjust two separate articles in the constitution. The first proposed amendment, to Article 94, would change the electoral system from multi-seat to single-seat constituencies, a move that most experts believe would benefit smaller parties in parliamentary elections. The second proposal, which also enjoys the support of the Democrat Party, would change Article 190 to clarify which international agreements needed parliamentary approval. ¶4. (U) According to the current constitution, from a procedural standpoint, all amendments must pass three readings. In the first instance, at least one-third of the members of both the House (474 MPs currently) and the Senate (150 members) must support the initial reading of the amendment. A simple majority is required for the second reading. A simple majority in both chambers is also required for the last reading, though in this case voting is open and done by roll-call. Any amendment that passes all three readings is then submitted to the King for his endorsement. MATH BEHIND THE MADNESS? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) With only 95 MPs combined, the junior partners lack sufficient numbers to pass even the first reading, let alone the second and third. Even with enough senators to secure a successful first reading, either the Democrat Party or Puea Thai would have to switch gears and support the proposed charter change for it to succeed ultimately. The lack of coalition unity on the amendment proposal, coupled with the prospect of a Puea Thai driven no-confidence debate in the coming weeks, have led some pundits to openly question the BANGKOK 00000281 002.2 OF 002 junior partners' collective commitment to Abhisit's government. ¶6. (C) Inside views differ, however. Senior PJT MP and party spokesperson Supachai Jaisamut told us January 27 that the coalition partners separated executive and legislative branch matters and did not actually plan on trying to leverage the looming no-confidence debate to force Democrat party support for the charter change initiative. Supachai acknowledged that none of the coalition parties had any desire to see new elections this year. Instead, he claimed the plan was to table the amendment motion and "go slow" until the Democrats came to their senses about electoral math realities for the next election cycle. ¶7. (C) Supachai argued that the Democrats were already at their peak electoral strength, and the only way the DP could achieve a plurality was by subtracting seats from PT (which currently has the largest caucus, 189 to DP's 173). With single MP districts, smaller parties like PJT would be able to score victories in the populous northeast (Isaan),taking seats away from Puea Thai, the only competitor to the DP for numeric supremacy in parliament. Democrat SecGen Suthep understood this reality of what it would take for the Democrats to achieve a plurality in the next election and earn the right to form the next government, Supachai assessed, but other Democrat heavyweights had not. JOHN