THAILAND: AUTHORITIES SEARCH RED SHIRT AGITATOR,S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000184 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: AUTHORITIES SEARCH RED SHIRT AGITATOR,S HOUSE REF: A. BANGKOK 149 (RED-SHIRT CORE LEADERS) ¶B. 09 BANGKOK 3115 (RED CONSTITUTION DAY RALLY) ¶C. 09 BANGKOK 3067 (RED-SHIRTS SET THEIR SIGHTS) ¶D. 08 BANGKOK 3426 (EXPLOSION AT BANGKOK PROTEST) ¶E. 08 BANGKOK 3154 (EX-COP THREATENS CLASH) BANGKOK 00000184 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Pol Chief Eric W. Kneedler, reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (U) Summary: Police raided the home of Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdiphol (aka "Seh Daeng") on January 21 in connection with his possible involvement in an apparent grenade attack targeting Royal Thai Army (RTA) Commander in Chief Anupong Paojinda. Authorities also raided Seh Daeng's former driver's home, where they uncovered a significant weapons cache. Seh Daeng -- who has made headlines in recent weeks with his inflammatory comments and trips to Cambodia and Dubai to see former PM Thaksin -- was away from Bangkok at the time of the raid and has not yet been detained or charged. ¶2. (C) Comment: News of the search of Seh Daeng's home came as a welcome relief to the many who suspect he has been personally involved with acts of violence in the past. Despite frequent declarations by leaders of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD, or "red-shirts") that they do not support his advocacy of violence, their persistent refusal to cut him out of the movement speaks volumes. With the prospect of large scale red shirt rallies looming on the horizon in the coming months -- including talk of the long promised "final confrontation" -- the potential removal of Thaksin's top attack dog might allow more breathing room for both sides to work without the fear of bloodshed. End Summary and Comment. AUTHORITIES RAID SEH DAENG'S HOUSE -------------- ¶3. (U) A mixed group of civilian and military police officers and judge advocates general raided the home of suspended Major General Khatthiya Sawasdiphol on January 21. Seh Daeng was named by Thai media as the prime suspect in two separate alleged grenade attacks on January 14, one at the office of RTA Commander in Chief Anupong Paojinda and the other at the Defense Ministry. Authorities confiscated a handgun, a grenade, a computer and some compact disks from Seh Daeng's home on the compound of the 4th Cavalry Battalion in Bangkok and detained two aides at the residence. Seh Daeng was in Songkhla Province in the South at the time of the raid and canceled his return flight to Bangkok after he heard about the raid. ¶4. (U) Authorities also raided the apartment of Sgt. Maj. Natthasit Suwanraj, Seh Daeng's former driver, on the same compound. They confiscated a large cache of weapons including ten M-79 grenades, three Claymore anti-personnel mines, three packs of C4 explosive, 13 sticks of TNT, and several hundred bullets for M-16 and AK-47 assault rifles. Police said they planned to charge Seh Daeng and Natthasit with illegal possession of war weapons. POSSIBLE GRENADE ATTACK -------------- ¶5. (U) On January 21 there was extensive coverage in Thai media regarding an alleged incident at Army Headquarters on January 14. Media reports indicated an M-79 grenade had been fired at Army Commander General Anupong's office, while another had been fired at the Ministry of Defense that same night; nobody was hurt in either incident. Press speculation almost immediately centered on Seh Daeng, who had made public threats against Anupong after Minister of Defense Prawit Wongsuwan suspended Seh Daeng January 5 for violating army regulations. Seh Daeng was accused of traveling to Cambodia to meet former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in November without seeking leave from the Army, as well as for his BANGKOK 00000184 002.2 OF 002 involvement in leading former border rangers to a red-shirt protest in late 2009 (REF B). Seh Daeng denied any involvement in the apparent attacks, telling reporters that if he had done it, "Anupong would be dead." ¶6. (C) A source close to Anupong told us that while there was damage to an outside wall of the building in which Anupong's office is located, there was no evidence of a grenade, nor was any suspicious activity detected or explosions noted. The source acknowledged, however, that Seh Daeng may have been involved in whatever activity had damaged the wall. The DCM saw General Anupong at an Army event the evening of January 20 and he appeared relaxed and happy and did not have a larger security detail than usual. ¶7. (C) Isra Sunthornvut, the Vice Minister for the Office of the Prime Minister, told us January 22 that the RTG was still investigating the alleged grenade incident, as well as Seh Daeng's possible involvement. Isra suspected that regardless of how authorities decided to proceed, Seh Daeng would seek to make his former driver the scapegoat for any alleged wrongdoing. WHY SHOULD WE WORRY ABOUT SEH DAENG? -------------- ¶8. (C) As reported in Refs C-E, Seh Daeng has a track record of making accurate predictions about violence at political rallies (REFS C-E). He also remains popular with many red shirts, a fact that has complicated efforts by moderate red-shirt leaders to publicly distance themselves from Seh Daeng and his activities (REF A). Books, CDs, DVDs, and other Seh Daeng paraphernalia are widely available and very popular at the red-shirt rallies, and his popular appeal has been evident at various red-shirt gatherings (REF B). German photojournalist Nick Nostitz (strictly protect) told us on January 20 that he personally knew Seh Daeng, and reported that he was well-respected within some Thai military circles and surrounded by loyal, hardened triggermen. According to Nostitz, Seh Daeng was beyond anyone's control, including former Prime Minister Thaksin. JOHN