RRT ERBIL: NO SIGN PUK-GORAN TENSIONS ABATING IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000091

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: NO SIGN PUK-GORAN TENSIONS ABATING IN
SULAIMANIYAH PROVINCE

REF: BAGHDAD 3346

BAGHDAD 00000091 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: RRT Erbil Team Leader Andrew Snow for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)


1. (U) This is an RRT Erbil cable.


2. (U) Summary: Recent violence in Sulaimaniyah Province
(details reported reftel) may foreshadow a rough and dirty
political struggle between the PUK and Goran ("Change")
Movement in the runup to the March 7 national elections.
Everyone from KRG PM Salih to Goran parliamentarians to the
Sulaimaniyah Governor and Islamist party officials is
worried. Goran insists it did not provoke a December 24 riot
in Peramagron that put over 20 law enforcement officials and
demonstrators in the hospital. It alleges numerous attacks
on its members and calls on the authorities to investigate
those incidents and provide better protection. The PUK
suggests that Goran supporters exhorted the crowd to violence
and encourages such demonstrations as a means to discredit
the PUK. KRG leadership is counseling restraint, but there
is little sign the KRG is actively trying to prevent or
seriously investigate the attacks on Goran. Meanwhile, Goran
leader Nawshirwan Mustafa has responded in kind to President
Talabani's accusation that Nawshirwan helped bring about
Saddam's use of chemical weapons. In a related development,
the long-awaited "retirement" of Sulaimaniyah Governor Dana
Majeed has occurred; Dana is now an open supporter of Goran.
The absence of a strong governor in Sulaimaniyah in the
coming months will likely hamper any KRG attempt to reduce
tension and avoid violence. End summary.

WORRIES ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM AS TOP LEADERS SLING MUD


3. (C) The divergence of views between opposition and ruling
party figures on where the blame lies for the recent uptick
in tensions and violence between PUK and Goran in
Sulaimaniyah is matched only by the unanimity across the
political spectrum that recent developments are worrisome.
Everyone from KRG PM Salih to Goran parliamentarians to
Goran-sympathizer Governor Dana Majeed to the Politburo
director of the Kurdistan Islamist Union has told the
Ambassador's Senior Advisor for Northern Iraq (SANI) and
RRToffs in recent days they are very worried. PM Salih said
"it's more than a headache." He said President Talabani
assured him there was no PUK policy of harassment of Goran,
and the PM received similar assurances from PUK security
chiefs. Salih said he "could not exclude" the possibility
that "individuals" might have committed unsanctioned actions
and is looking further into it. He stressed that the PUK has
no interest in committing violence against Goran, since the
PUK will suffer as a result. Salih and other KRG officials
characterized Goran as poisoning the atmosphere with their
obstructionist approach. Salih regretted that Goran leader
Nawshirwan Mustafa had elected to publicly respond to
President Talabani's accusations that Nawshirwan's actions in
the run-up to Saddam's chemical weapons attack on Halabja had
contributed to the former regime's decision to use these
weapons. In a lengthy rebuttal in the independent newspaper
Hawlati January 5, Nawshirwan responded in kind, linking
Talabani's own actions to Halabja. Nawshirwan said that
Talabani 'will be responsible for any unwanted incidents
taking place in the region."


4. (C) Separately, KRG Presidency Chief of Staff Fuad Hussein
(KDP) told SANI of his own grave concern that the
unprecedented mutual vituperation between Nawshirwan Mustafa
and Jalal Talabani would spur further violence, and certainly
was harmful to the image of Kurdistan and corrosive in
Kurdish politics. Accordingly, Fuad said he would urge
Barzani to intervene urgently with the two leaders and try to
QBarzani to intervene urgently with the two leaders and try to
contain the situation.

IT WAS THE OTHER GUY


5. (U) The December 24 riot in Peramagron has been the most
visible event in the increasingly bitter Goran-PUK battle for
political supremacy in Sulaimaniyah Province, and for seats
March 7 national parliamentary elections. Predictably, each
party (Goran considers itself a "movement") blames the other
for the fact that the Peramagron demonstration got out of
hand. Both sides note that there have been other incidents
in past months.

THE PUK VIEW


6. (C) In a conversation with an RRT staff member, PUK
Sulaimaniyah Center Chief of Staff Dara Qaradakhi (assistant
to Hero Talabani, wife of the President) expressed his belief
that Goran is cynically attempting to position itself as the
champion of the common citizen and has capitalized on the
admittedly poor performance of the PUK mayor in Peramagron
for political advantage. Dara stated that he has a video made

BAGHDAD 00000091 002.7 OF 003


during the demonstration which shows Goran members setting
fire to vehicles. He indicated that Goran is planning
another demonstration in the town of Garmyan, Sulaimaniyah
Province, and that the PUK has headed off other planned
demonstrations in Halabja, Bazian, and Saidsadiq districts by
actively "fixing their problems."

7. (C) At the national level, Kurdish Alliance Leader Fuad
Masoum (PUK) took a more measured view. He blamed Goran for
intentionally publicizing incidents and attributing
everything to the PUK-Goran feud, but claimed such reports
were overblown. Masoum did not deny that the demonstrations
against (PUK) Mayor Awat in Peramagron occurred; however, he
stressed that the disturbance was occasioned by the fact that
the PUK mayor had wrongly insulted his constituency, and said
it was not clear to him that Goran was behind them.

8. (C) A U.S. military source was told by locals that Goran
supporters were key instigators of the demonstration, but
probably had not planned for it to become violent. Goran
supporters were allegedly seen bringing food to demonstrators
as the protest continued into the evening. Reftel notes that
Peramagron residents were seeking help from Goran head
Nawshirvan Mustafa as early as July 2009. According to
local sources, KRG PM Salih (PUK) was personally involved in
managing the response to the demonstration. Sources indicate
he instructed a Peshmerga unit, which was preparing to deploy
into Peramagron, not to enter the town.


9. (C) In a conversation with RRT Team Leader, KRG MOI Karim
Sinjari (KDP) said Goran had "added fuel to the fire." He
instructed security forces not to fire on the demonstrators,
but, the demonstrators opened fire on them first.

AND THE OTHER SIDE'S VIEW


10. (C) Sulaimaniyah PGOV Dana Majeed, on the other hand,
emphatically blamed the KRG for the violence, specifically
the KRG Deputy Minister of Interior (the PUK deputy to the
KDP's Sinjari). Dana told Team Leader the Mayor had secured
the crowd's agreement to back off until the Mayor could
secure an apology from the official who said the people of
Peramagron were "blind." According to Dana, the Deputy
Interior Minister declined to wait and sent in forces,
thereby enraging the crowd and sparking the violence. Dana
Majeed also told Team Leader that he had asked President
Talabani to stay within the law, but that he did not expect
Talabani to do so.


11. (C) Goran representatives emphasize that the Peramagron
demonstration was not the first event in the current round of
violence. Mam ("Uncle") Rostam, a venerated Peshmerga leader
from Kirkuk and Goran activist, told an RRT staff member that
he was angry that Goran was being blamed for the
demonstration in Peramagron. He categorically denied that
Goran had instigated the violence; rather, he said, Goran
supporters had tried to calm down the situation. Qadir Haji
Ali, a former PUK Politburo member who resigned the party in
2005, is responsible for Goran finance management. He told
an RRT staff member about several recent provocations and
insinuated that the PUK was behind them:

- Soran Abdul Qadir Kosat, Regional Director of the
Norwegian Development Program and a well-known Goran
supporter, was kidnapped from Sulaimaniyah on September 15,

2009. He was found in Kirkuk two days later and claimed to
have been tortured.

- Bakhtiar Saeed, is an independent journalist who has
written many articles about corruption and mismanagement in
the KRG. His car was burned in front of his house on October
4, 2009, after he wrote articles about the dismissal of KRG
employees who were Goran supporters.
Qemployees who were Goran supporters.

- Unidentified gunmen opened fire on the Goran office in
Erbil on October 12, 2009. - Goran member Fareeq Dara was
severely beaten with iron pipes in front of his house by two
assailants.

- Goran candidate Sardar Qadir was shot twice in the leg by
an unknown gunman.

- Goran member Rauf Zarayani was murdered by unknown gunmen
on December 25, 2009 in New Halabja.


12. (C) Qadir stated that the riot in Peramagron was the
natural response to incompetent PUK management of the town.
He noted that Goran leadership constantly reminds its
supporters not to respond to violence with more violence, but
said it was convenient for the PUK and KDP to point the
finger at Goran in instances where events escalated Kurdo
Qasim, a former PUK Leadership Committee member and current
Goran leader, noted that, should Goran choose to be more
confrontational, it has the ability to mobilize simultaneous
demonstrations in every district of Sulaimaniyah, as well as

BAGHDAD 00000091 003.7 OF 003


in other areas.


13. (SBU) On December 31, the Goran bloc in the Iraqi
Kurdistan Parliament (IKP) issued an open letter, citing
several of the above attacks and expressing hope that "this
series of offenses is not a state terrorism in Kurdistan
Region (SIC)." The letter noted the lack of results of the
investigations to date, held Presidents Talabani and Barzani
responsible for ensuring the security of IKR citizens and
calls for an urgent parliamentary session of the IKP. Goran
parliamentarians told SANI that IKP Speaker Kamal Kirkuki has
so far refused to hold the special session. The IKP is
currently at the beginning of a two-month recess, which Goran
believes is calculated to deny them a platform in the run-up
to elections. Contacts also said Goran had filed suit
through the judicial system in each case of violence.

14. (C) KRG President Barzani issued a public statement on
January 10 expressing Barzani's concern that recent
developments could lead to an "abnormal atmosphere" in the
IKR. (Comment: While the recent PUK-Goran violence is new in
terms of the combatants' affiliations, political violence is
not historically atypical in the IKR. End comment.) Barzani
said political debate and divergent views were a "healthy
phenomenon" and stressed that security and stability would be
preserved in the IKR. In a meeting with MG Cucolo on January
11, Barzani confirmed press reports that he had chaired a
meeting of political parties on January 10 in which political
parties agreed they should cease media attacks. KRG head of
external relations Falah Mustafa Bakir told RRT Team Leader
that the PUK and Goran had welcomed President Barzani's
efforts on the issue.

15. (C) COMMENT: The July 2009 KRG regional election, in
which Goran scored big gains in Sulaimaniyah, was a major
blow for the PUK, putting it on the defensive in what had
been its stronghold. The vendetta between the two camps is
turning increasingly nasty; at this juncture there appears to
be little that could break the cycle of violence and
bitterness. With leaders of both sides engaged in vicious
personal attacks on their counterparts, there is little
incentive for restraint at lower levels. The retirement of
Sulaimaniyah's Governor, Dana Majeed, and his replacement by
a politically weak acting Governor will further contribute to
the vacuum of leadership, diminishing the ability of
responsible actors to better manage festering tensions and
sporadic violence.


HILL