RRT ERBIL: EFFORTS TO CONTROL CLASHES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000516 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2020 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL ASEC KTER IZ SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: EFFORTS TO CONTROL CLASHES IN SULAIMANIYAH REF: A. BAGHDAD 0417 ¶B. BAGHDAD 0515 Classified By: RRT Erbil Team Leader Andrew Snow for Reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d). ¶1. (U) This is an Erbil Regional Reconstruction Team (RRT) cable. ¶2. (C) Summary: Sulaimaniyah's election security committee broadcast the decision February 19 to ban all outdoor campaign activities in Sulaimaniyah province between the hours of 9:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m. through the end of the campaign period. The Ambassador's Senior Advisor to Northern Iraq (SANI) expressed concern over the violence to President Barzani's Chief of Staff Fuad Hussein and Kurdistan Region Minister of the Interior (KMOI) Kareem Sinjari, both from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). RRT Erbil Team Leader also called for restraint on local television. End summary. SANI and Team Leader Encourage Restraint -------------- ¶3. (C) On February 17 and 18 SANI and RRT Team Leader met with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) senior officials and expressed concern over the growing threat of violence especially in Sulaimaniyah and Kirkuk. SANI told KMOI that the level of friction between the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Goran is alarming, adding that if the violence continues it will harm the credibility of the election. SANI and Team Leader also passed a message of concern to KRG Vice President and senior PUK leader Kosrat Rasoul through his son. On February 22 KMOI told Team Leader that he had met with representatives of all the political parties and stressed that all sides avoid violence and adhere strictly to IHEC campaign rules. Sinjari also asked the Goran representative to pass a message to Goran leader Nawshirwan Mustafa that he make a television appearance and call on his supporters to remain calm and not resort to violence. Team Leader suggested President Talabani should do the same. Sinjari said if Nawshirwan does it first, he can embarrass Talabani into doing it. (Note: In a February 23 meeting with SANI, Goran senior leader, and former Sulaimaniyah governor, Dana Ahmed Majeed, said that Mustafa had already addressed followers with this message on February ¶21. End note.) ¶4. (C) SANI also warned President Barzani,s Chief of Staff Dr. Fuad Hussein that there is concern that there could be a serious incident in Kirkuk or Sulaimaniyah in the near future if tensions were not tempered. Hussein agreed that the situation was not good, but attributed it mostly to party supporters failing to control themselves late at night due to a combination of youthful exuberance and too much alcohol. He said that he would ask KRG President Barzani to tell people not to campaign late at night. In SANI's meeting with KMOI, Sinjari said that he had already called for a meeting with the election security committee, and was planning to meet with them later on February 18. (Note: The committee, which consists of the three provincial governors, IHEC, and the chiefs of police, decided to limit campaigning in Sulaimaniyah to no later than 9:00 p.m. End Note.) Sinjari also expressed some mistrust of the Goran movement, saying that he hoped that Goran would listen. ¶5. (SBU) In a series of interviews with Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR)-based television stations (both ruling party- and opposition-linked),RRT Team Leader has also called on all party leaders to urge their followers to exercise restraint and avoid violence. PUK Tough Guys Allegedly Driving the Decisions -------------- - ¶6. (C) During a meeting February 18 with RRTOff, Kurdistan Q6. (C) During a meeting February 18 with RRTOff, Kurdistan Strategic Studies Center director Farid Asasard, who is also a member of PUK's 30-member leadership committee, said that there is a greater degree of both excitement and tension in the public than during the July regional parliamentary elections. Asasard agrees that it is in PUK's interest to calm supporters, emotions, but many in the leadership believe PUK needs to make a public showing that they are tough and will not bend in front of an opponent like Goran. According to Asasard, some in the leadership have said, "If they throw one stone, we'll throw ten!" He said the PUK leadership is especially sensitive to the need to get enough votes to justify another term for Jalal Talabani as Iraqi president. Asasard said that it is especially difficult to control both youth, because they are by nature unpredictable, and hired supporters, because they are loyal to their benefactors. PUK needs to make a stronger effort to encourage restraint through the media, but it will still be difficult to control these two groups, he said. ¶7. (C) In a meeting with RRTOff February 18, Goran deputy head Muhammad Tofiq expressed grave concern for the welfare of Goran's supporters. He said that there had been six people hit by gunfire and all had been Goran supporters. (Note: The RRT has only been able to confirm four gunshot injuries: three to Goran supporters on the night of February 16 and one to a visitor from Khanaqin on the night of February 18, who was not a supporter of either party. End note.) Tofiq said that the Goran representative on the election security committee had reported that the PUK representative had said in the committee's most recent meeting that PUK decisions are being taken far above his level, and he was skeptical whether his leadership would listen to the counsel of the committee. Tofiq claimed that he tells supporters daily that they need to stay calm and exercise restraint. Tofiq said he had told Talabani years ago that the PUK needed to make the transition from an underground military movement into an organization in which violence and intimidation were left behind. However Talabani always had excuses why it was not the right time to make this transformation. Election Security Committee Actively Engaged -------------- ¶8. (C) In a February 21 discussion with RRTstaff, Zana Salih, Sulaimaniyah District Manager and member of the election security committee, said that the situation had calmed following the decision to ban public campaigning after 9:00 p.m., but there were indications that PUK had not complied with the new mandate. The committee had informed Malband officials of the violations and the need to follow IHEC's decision. Acting provincial governor Bahroz Qashani was dispatched to meet with Malband officials, asking that they help to maintain order by complying with IHEC's new regulations, and they pledged to do so. Salih said, "I will believe it when I see it." Salih attributes the higher number of problems this time, over the July regional election campaign, to the insertion of the Asayish in the security mix; in July the Asayish were reportedly not involved. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The decision to restrict campaigning through the night in Sulaimaniyah is a practical decision to lower the political temperature. It is unclear however, whether all sides will respect enforcement of the decision and voluntarily cease their activities. There are initial indications that PUK violated the 9:00 deadline in the days following its pronouncement. Even though there are signs that Goran restrained its supporters in the first couple of days after the new policy came into effect, it appears that after seeing PUK supporters not respecting the deadline, Goran supporters have also pushed the time envelope. IHEC has levied fines against the parties, but these minor fines will not be a strong enough disincentive for them to discontinue their unhelpful actions. End Comment. HILL