DE-BA,ATHIFICATION, ELECTION VIOLATIONS, MAR START

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000512

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2011
TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: DE-BA,ATHIFICATION, ELECTION VIOLATIONS, MAR START
TO MUTHANNA PROVINCE,S CAMPAIGN SEASON

REF: A. 10 BAGHDAD 483

B. 10 BAGHDAD 422

C. 10 BAGHDAD 387

D. 09 BAGHDAD 146

Classified By: PRT Team Leader John Kuschner for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (U) This is a PRT Muthanna reporting cable.


2. (C/REL) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Much as it is dominating
the business of governing in Muthanna (reftel A),
anti-Ba,athist sentiment is a dominant theme of the
campaign, for the moment. The furor is squeezing out other,
more traditional campaign issues, such as jobs and essential
services delivery. While the election season has begun with
only a few reported campaign violations, there are rumors of
vote buying efforts targeted at influential tribal leaders
and localized geographic areas. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

DE-BA,ATHIFICATION AS A CAMPAIGN ISSUE
--------------

3. (C) In the wake of the Accountability and Justice
Committee,s de-Ba,athification decisions (reftel B),
Muthanna,s politicians have taken up de-ba,athification as
a central campaign issue this year. At a February 7 meeting
with the PRT Team Leader, Governor Ibrahim Salman Al Mayali
(Da,wa/State of Law Coalition) compared de-ba,athification
to the exclusion of the Nazis from German government after
the Second World War (reftel C). Other State of Law Alliance
(SLA) and Sadrist Trend parliamentary candidates have also
used similar rhetoric in recent weeks. One U.S. Army officer
in Muthanna recently queried a local Iraqi Police contact on
why anti-Ba,athist sentiment runs so deep here in Muthanna.
He simply offered, &All families have scars from Saddam.8
This rhetoric is presently crowding out the typical campaign
issues of jobs, corruption, and essential services delivery
in this impoverished province.

A FEW VIOLATIONS, BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET START
--------------

4. (SBU) At a February 15 meeting, Director Mutamed Namaa
of the Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) told the PRT that
preparations for the March 7 parliamentary elections are
running smoothly. Some of the GEO,s work has been stalled
because of the de-Ba,athification process. Also
complicating matters, key GEO staff--specifically, the deputy
director, an important auditor, and a logistician--have been
sent abroad to help administer out-of-country voting, further
reducing the office,s capabilities.


5. (C) Prior to the start of the campaign season, the GEO
Director cited three political parties for campaign
violations. While the parties were not identified publicly,
Namaa told the PRT the specifics of the citations. The GEO
cited two parties for campaigning before the February 12
start date of the campaign season. The State of Law
Coalition posted campaign signs and the 20th Revolution Bloc
distributed hand flyers too early. The third violation was
the Coalition of Willingness and Change electioneering during
the Arba,een pilgrimage to Karbala, a route that traverses
the northern part of Muthanna. Namaa noted that his office
employs ten individuals who investigate provincial campaign
violations. He referred each matter to IHEC in Baghdad.

VOTE BUYING THROUGH PERFORMANCE INCENTIVES?
--------------

6. (C) A PRT locally engaged staff member noted that vote
buying this election has become more sophisticated than in
the 2009 provincial elections. While it was (and continues
to be) an issue in the previous provincial election on an
individual basis (reftel D),now some campaigns are targeting
whole areas, especially rural ones, with performance
incentives. If the local tribal sheikh can deliver a certain
Qincentives. If the local tribal sheikh can deliver a certain
percent of the vote for a given list, that campaign will
pledge a certain amount of cash to the tribal leader.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that tribal leaders in the Khidr
area of Muthanna are especially susceptible to this kind of
vote buying and are being heavily courted by the major
parties. (Note: PRT will try to clarify these claims. End
Note.).


7. (C) Sheikh Raysan Mutashar Fahad Jiheel alZayadi (INA)
complained to PRToffs that governmental resources are being
misappropriated for campaign purposes. He cited,
specifically, Mohammed Arboud al-Zayadi (Coalition of Iraqi
Unity) because he ordered the municipalities department--in
his capacity as First Deputy PC Chairman--to fix the roads in
certain areas of Samawah where his supporters live, but
neglected areas where he was politically weaker. In this
way, he was literally fixing potholes for votes.


8. (C) When the PRT asked about vote buying, the GEO Director

was largely dismissive of the possibility. He explained that
when a voter is alone behind the voting screen, there is
nothing to stop him or her from casting a ballot,
notwithstanding any payoff that may have been made. He
declined to comment on the matter of vote buying for whole
areas. (Comment: Given that polling place vote tallies will
be available after counting, accountability, in theory, can
be better ascertained. End comment.)
COMMENT
--------------

9. (C) Given that Muthanna is almost an entirely Shi'a
province, there is no political risk to criticizing the
Ba,athists. Many local Sadrist Trend and SLA candidates are
using this rhetoric to help rally their base and gain
additional votes on Election Day. Legislation in the
Provincial Council may be an important part of the campaign.
If the recently passed law aimed at the de-Ba'athification of
local government is implemented, it would have deleterious
consequences for the functioning of the province that in
turn, could impact the campaign. Despite this, the
de-Ba,athification issue seems to be gaining resonance, as
it has replaced essential services, jobs, and corruption as
the primary campaign issues discussed this season. Nearly
all of the major, competitive parties have embraced it to a
greater or lesser extent, for fear of being branded &soft on
Ba,athists.8 Voters may tire of the issue in the waning
days of the election season, however, if politicians cannot
give them some other reason to vote for their candidacy. End
comment.

HILL