SANI DISCUSSES ARTICLE 140 WITH DPM ROWSCH SHAWAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000472

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: SANI DISCUSSES ARTICLE 140 WITH DPM ROWSCH SHAWAYS

REF: BAGHDAD 177

Classified By: Political Counselor Yuri Kim for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY. Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Dr. Rowsch
Shaways welcomed Senior Advisor to Northern Iraq's (SANI)
proposal of a major post-election effort to engage
stakeholders in an inclusive, broad-based effort keyed to the
first phase of the Article 140 process: normalization.
Shaways agreed that this effort should not replace the UNAMI
High Level Task Force (HLTF),which primarily focuses on
confidence building measures (CBMs) in the DIBs areas. He
expressed doubt that a census would be possible in 2010,
citing fall 2011 as a more likely timeframe. He saw no
problem with holding a national census even if normalization
had not been completed. Shaways was amenable to a referendum
that would confirm a negotiated DIBs settlement acceptable to
all parties. END SUMMARY.

NORMALIZATION FRAMEWORK
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2. (C) In discussion with DPM Dr. Rowsch Shaways on
February 7, SANI reaffirmed U.S. support for Article 140,
with strong emphasis on need for systematic focus on phase
one - normalization - as basis for progress toward political
solution to Iraq's disputed internal boundaries (DIBs). SANI
sketched out concept of normalization as a multi-faceted
process engaging all ethnic and religious groups, as well as
KRG and GOI. He also noted the importance of UNAMI's HLTF
(on which Shaways represents the KRG) in fostering
confidence-building measures on the ground and cooperation
between GOI and KRG. Shaways agreed that the HLTF should
continue, in order to demonstrate to the Iraqi people that
Article 140 was not dead. He welcomed SANI's suggestion of a
new post-election focus on normalization that would include
all major ethnic and minority groups, as long as it did not
compete or replace UNAMI's HLTF. Shaways firmly stated that
Article 140 was the only way to resolve DIBs and that
normalization must be addressed; otherwise, CBMs would have
little effect.

NATIONAL CENSUS
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3. (C) SANI also reaffirmed U.S. readiness to provide
technical support for a national census, and solicited
Shaways' opinion on when it would be feasible, both
technically and politically, to conduct a census. Shaways
emphasized that a new census is essential, as the 1957 census
was the last that all Iraqis agree was not manipulated by
Saddam. "We need current numbers for many things besides
Kirkuk," he declared. On timing, he pointed out teachers and
school facilities will be heavily involved in carrying out
the census. Accordingly, the best time for a census would be
during the start of the school year (in September). He
explained that the Council of Representatives (COR) must vote
to hold a census, after which preparations usually take six
months. While loathe to accept delay, Shaways was thus
skeptical that a census could be conducted in 2010 because in
his view government formation will not conclude before
August. Thus a September 2011 census, with COR approval
voted in no later than March 2011, might be the best
available timeline.


4. (C) SANI noted that current COR members have divergent
ideas about the scope and methodology of a summit. Some
maintain, for example, that the census should not ask
questions concerning ethnicity or religion, and others want
the census to include a pooling of citizens' biodata,
including retina scans and fingerprints. The COR would
Qincluding retina scans and fingerprints. The COR would
ultimately have to decide such questions. Shaways responded
that, theoretically, "one Iraq" was a good idea; however, the
reality is that, "There are Sunni, Shia, Kurds, Turkomans and
other ethnic groups existing in Iraq, and this cannot be
changed." Shaways conceded that "all" entities, including
the Kurds, would attempt to manipulate the census, but that
accurate information is needed to move forward on many
fronts. Shaways agreed with SANI that, while a census taken
after normalization might prove more accurate, a census is
needed urgently and should proceed as soon as possible. He
added that adjustments, or a secondary census, could follow
at a later date, if necessary.

CONFIRMATORY REFERENDUM
--------------


5. (C) SANI observed that an up-or-down referendum on Kirkuk
prior to a comprehensive, inclusive process of normalization
would be divisive. It would create winners and losers, and
there is a serious risk that the "losers" would not accept
the outcome. Thus the result would be bitterness, violence,
conflict and instability. Shaways agreed, in principle, that
a peaceful, negotiated DIBs resolution acceptable to all
parties was the best way forward. He agreed that the
referendum called for in Article 140 could confirm such a
negotiated solution.


6. (C) COMMENT. Dr. Rowsh Shaways has told us on many
occasions that, on behalf KRG President Masoud Barzani, he
came to participate in UNAMI's HLTF in order to define the
internal boundaries. We expect him to be a continuing player
in coming efforts to address the DIBs. He has been a
constructive member of the HLTF, and his low-key personal
style is an asset in dealing with the controversial, and
often emotional, DIBs issues. END COMMENT.
FORD