PRT DHI QAR: BALLOT DE-BA'ATHIFICATION SPARKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000390 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2020 TAGS: PGOV IZ IR SUBJECT: PRT DHI QAR: BALLOT DE-BA'ATHIFICATION SPARKS PROVINCIAL CELEBRATION (CORRECTED) REF: BAGHDAD 200 Classified By: Dhi Qar PRT Deputy Team Leader Ted Lyng. Reasons: 1.4 ( b/d) ¶1. This is a PRT Dhi Qar reporting cable. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: As Dhi Qar election officials prepared for the March 7 election, the province,s leading politicians used the period before the start of official campaigning to burnish their anti-Ba,athist credentials. Governor Taleb al-Hassan (SLA/Da,wa) and other political leaders led several large demonstrations in Nasiriyah on January 17 and 27 supporting the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) decision to exclude from the ballot a number of candidates with alleged Ba,athist connections. Da,wa politicians were quick to use the IHEC decision to show the voters that Da,wa is the party best suited to prevent a Ba,athist return and not, as some rivals say, the ineffective incumbent party of the "occupation." The race for Dhi Qar,s 18 seats will be an all-Shi,a affair: Da,wa, Sadrist Trend, and National Reform Movement candidates formed a winning coalition after 2009 provincial elections, but ISCI is putting Adel Abd al-Mahdi, a contender for Prime Minister, in the number one spot on the Iraqi National Accord (INA) list here, and Aziz Alwan, the ex-Governor of Dhi Qar who used the Governorship to engage in an all-out war with the Sadrists and Jaish al Mahdi forces in 2007 and 2008, in the number three spot behind a Sadrist. The PRT expects a hard-fought contest, good security, and with Ba,athism now a major issue, a very big turnout. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. LET THE CAMPAIGN BEGIN - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) In Dhi Qar province, 21 political entities and 324 candidates, including 86 women, will compete for 18 seats representing the province in the next parliament. Dhi Qar has nearly one million registered voters, who will cast their votes in 414 polling stations spread across an area roughly the size of Connecticut. Nearly half the voters will come from Nasiriyah, the provincial capital. Alaa Abdel Aouda, IHEC Director in Dhi Qar, told the PRT that everything is proceeding according to plan and that he expects a good turnout and a peaceful election. DE-BA,ATHIFICATION BECOMING THE ISSUE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) In this province where mass graves dating to the days following the 1991 Shi,a uprising are still being discovered, PRT LESs, visitors to the PRT's training center, and U.S. Army Iraqi Qualitative Atmospheric Task Force surveys indicate that IHEC,s decision to disqualify alleged Ba,athists is universally popular (reftel). Contacts throughout the province told PRT IPAO that former interim prime minister Iyad al-Allawi, (chief of the Iraqiyya Coalition and a secular Shi,a) and two of the Sunni candidates included in the Accountability and Justice Commission,s (AJC) de,Ba,athification order--Saleh al-Mutlaq and Dhafer al-Aani--are reviled here for their Ba,athist roots. Officials from the major Shi,a parties, including Da,wa, Sadrist Trend, National Reform, and ISCI, were quick to seize the opportunity to tap into the vast reservoir of anti-Ba,athist sentiment. Two aspects of the demonstrations in Dhi Qar on January 17, 22 and 27 included former political prisoners held by the previous regime and relatives of those who died in Ba,athist custody, and are noteworthy for two particular aspects. First, while all the Shi,a parties participated in the demonstrations to some extent, the Da,wa politicians, including Governor Taleb al-Hassen, grabbed the most prominent spots. The Governor led the January 17 demonstration, flanked by the son and grandson Qthe January 17 demonstration, flanked by the son and grandson of elderly Sheikh Mohamed Bakr al-Nasri, Da,wa,s "philosopher," who returned to Nasiriyah in 2003 after years in exile. Second, anti-Ba'athist sentiment seems to be growing here: the January 27 march, organized by Dhi Qar,s Provincial Council (PC) and its Chairman, Qusei Ibadi, a member of Jaafari,s National Reform Movement, was the largest and the most emotional. (Note: Ibadi, who previously told Team Leader he wanted to annex the eastern part of Muthanna province, said the same thing to PRT IPAO this week. He noted that the tribes in the area he covets are Shi,a, while those to the west were Sunni. Ibadi wants, and believes he can have, a border with Saudi Arabia. End note.) He was flanked by Da,wa party council members. Many of the marchers carried banners calling for al-Aani and al-Mutlaq to be placed on trial. One banner, paid for by Da,wa, showed a father kissing the recovered skull of his son. CAN ISCI MAKE A COMEBACK? - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) The election here will be an all Shi,a contest between the PM,s State of Law Alliance (SLA) and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA). ISCI lost big in provincial elections in 2009, giving up key local posts to Da,wa, NRT and the Sadrist Trend. Conversely, this year ISCI is running two big names on the INA list in Dhi Qar: VP Abd al-Mahdi and Alwan. Sandwiched uncomfortably between the two is Baha al-Araji, a Sadrist Trend party member and current chair of the parliamentary legal committee. Alwan, who will campaign in the four sport for the INA, made his reputation fighting Sadrists when he was Dhi Qar,s governor in 2007 and 2008, and tensions between ISCI and the Sadrists in the province are still palpable. A few weeks ago, PRT Team Leader watched Alwan and ISCI Chairman Ammar al-Hakim arrive together for the National Police Service celebration in Nasiriyah. When the two sat down, the Sadrist politicians in the box got up and left. IRANIAN MEDDLING - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Da,wa has used the IHEC decision very effectively in Dhi Qar, where many voters now think a key election issue is who can most effectively keep the Ba,athists at bay. Before the decision, some of the opposition parties tried to portray Da,wa as the ineffective incumbent party of "the occupation." The following examples suggest that Iran is conducting an active "hearts and minds" campaign here. First, PRT contacts among Nasiriyah,s businessmen say they are eager to work with western companies but they tell the PRT they deal with Iranian and Turkish companies because they are here and the western companies are not. Second, Iranian doctors recently performed several heart surgeries in Nasiriyah. Finally, a good example of Iran,s openly political efforts took place at Dhi Qar University,s College of Art on January 16. Iran,s al-Kawther satellite network held an "Open Microphone" for university students. The moderator asked the students several good questions about what voters expect from national candidates. He then followed up with loaded questions: "What do you think about the occupation,s effect on the election and security?" and "What do you think about the occupation,s imposed candidates hindering the enactment of laws by parliament?" There were also several thinly veiled references to Saudi meddling in Iraqi affairs. COMMENT - - - - ¶7. (C) Dhi Qar has seen little violence recently, political or otherwise, and the PRT does not expect anti-Ba'athist rhetoric to spur sectarian problems. The province is homogeneously Shi'a. The Police Chief, General Sabah al-Fatlawy, has acted relatively impartially and seems to have things very much under control. Still, some developments will be important. As noted, Iran is seeking to stir up public anger about Saudi interference in the electoral process. The news that a Saudi cleric called Grand Ayatollah Sistani an atheist created quite a stir in the press and on the street here recently. The PRT expects a spirited and close race between the Da,wa and ISCI candidates. Some Sadrist Trend and National Reform candidates may also do well. At this point, voter frustrations about essential services seem to be less important than their concerns about a Ba,athist coup. FORD