PRT KARBALA: VOTERS IN DOUR MOOD AS UNOFFICIAL

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 000291

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2020
TAGS: PTER PGOV ASEC PREL EAID KJUS KCRM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: PRT KARBALA: VOTERS IN DOUR MOOD AS UNOFFICIAL
CAMPAIGN COMMENCES

REF: BAGHDAD 224

Classified By: OPA Director Greta Holtz for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) This is a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) Karbala
reporting cable.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Karbala province has been allotted ten seats
in the next Council of Representatives (CoR). Local PRT
employees and Karbala business and community leaders expect
that Dawa will win four to five seats, the ISCI-Sadrist slate
will win three to four seats, with a remaining seat(s) "up
for grabs." Lower turnout than the January 2009 provincial
elections is forecast due to low voter enthusiasm for the
candidates or parties in advance of the official start of
campaigning, expected to begin February 7. Many candidates
are leveraging religious holidays in Karbala to begin getting
their name out to the voters, including branded gifts of food
and souvenir Imam Husayn posters. Local observers perceive
improved relations between ISCI and the Sadrists after
joining the Iraqi National Alliance coalition, ending the
personal leader-on-leader attacks seen in the past.
Reactions are unsurprisingly positive to the parliamentary
Accountability and Justice Commission's action to exclude
"Ba'athists" in general and MP Salih al-Mutlaq in particular
from the election in the overwhelmingly Shi'a province of
Karbala. END SUMMARY.

VOTER MOOD IN KARBALA DOUR
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3. (S) A senior tribal sheikh, a major local business leader,
and other PRT interlocutors assess that national election
results in Karbala will show continued support for PM
Maliki's Dawa party, but expect a lower turnout than the 60
percent of Karbala's 564,000 voters who participated in the
January 2009 provincial elections. With ten CoR seats
available, most interlocutors expect Dawa will win four or
five seats, ISCI and the Sadrist Trend to win three or four
seats, and the remaining seat(s) to be "up for grabs" between
these two blocs or possibly won by Ayad Allawi's Iraqiyya
Coalition. Iraqiyya may gain this nominal representation,
according to interlocutors, assuming MP Salih al-Mutlaq
(IFND) ) who is widely considered to be linked to the
previous regime and hated in Karbala - stays off Allawi's
list. There is little enthusiasm among PRT interlocutors for
the candidates or parties and low confidence that the
election will produce candidates better able to improve the
lives of everyday citizens. Ayatollah al-Sistani's
representatives are encouraging voter participation weekly in
their shrine messages, and local observers are betting that
the Marjaiya will find a last minute cause to rally voters to
the polls.

KARBALAN ELECTION OFFICIALS READY BUT PERHAPS UNWILLING
-------------- --------------

4. (S) Karbala's Governorate Election Office (GEO) Director,
Safa'a al-Musawy, and the UN OPS Representative, Sheikh Ali
Kamounah, told Poloff that the Iraqi High Electoral
Commission (IHEC) is on track with election preparations,
giving extra effort to participation in voter education and
increased media involvement in pre-election activities.
While there are some views among PRT interlocutors that IHEC
is partisan at the national level, the local GEO staff in
Karbala is generally viewed as professional and unbiased. UN
OPS and others are working with international organizations
and local NGOs to prepare more than ten thousand election
observers representing international organizations and local
citizens, as well as Iraqi political parties and coalitions.
International monitors will use SMS technology to report
QInternational monitors will use SMS technology to report
election data from the province. Security for IHEC is being
coordinated at a national level. The GEO Director and Sheikh
Ali Kamounah stated that current provincial security efforts
are focused on the Shi'a commemoration of Arba'iniyah
(Reftel) and will shift focus to electoral preparations after
the religious commemoration has concluded. PRTOffs are
unaware of reports or allegations of inappropriate U.S.
influence or involvement in the elections.


5. (S) Reports from UNAMI to PRTOffs note improvements from
2009 in USAID-funded voter education focused on 1,750 women,
male youths and socially-marginalized Karbalans. Local PRT
staff, Sheikh Ali Kamounah and Musawy observed that some
voters remain uncertain about the voting procedures and
election slates, particularly when candidates have changed
parties. The GEO is participating in a variety of
Ministry-sponsored voter training programs and UN OPS is
sponsoring meetings with local sheikhs and community opinion
leaders to promote voter participation.


6. (S) Musawy told PRTOff that the GEO employees have

threatened to stage a walkout if national legislation
granting permanent employment status is not passed by the CoR
before February 7. On January 13, more than 100 local
employees protested in front of Karbala's Government Center
over concerns that the proposed legislation will exclude
employees outside the main provincial office, although
Karbala's local Parliamentary office representative reassured
the protesters that all IHEC employees will be considered
equally under the legislation.

UNOFFICIAL CAMPAIGNING BEGINS
--------------


7. (C) Though official campaigning has yet to start in
Karbala, many candidates are leveraging current affairs and
religious holidays to begin getting their name out to the
voters. Gifts of food and souvenir Imam Husayn posters were
distributed during Ashura labeled as "gifts of ISCI."
Maliki's press conference during his Ashura visit was
conducted in front of a backdrop of a poster of Imam Husayn
with the Dawa party's name. Maliki also distributed a
brochure of Quranic sayings during Ashura. Various posters
have appeared in Karbala promoting "Husseini" values but
feature a "brought to you by" sub-line with the party's name
(National Reform Party, ISCI, or Sadrists),a message
amplified among Karbala's religious citizens during this
intense period of mourning. (Reftel A)

8. (S) According to local PRT employees, ISCI and the
Sadrists appear to have improved relations after joining the
Iraqi National Alliance (INA) coalition in August 2009,
ending the personal leader-on-leader attacks seen in the
past. Local PRT staff perceive that Karbalans note ISCI
leader Ammar al-Hakim has adopted new political tactics to
distance himself and ISCI from Iran, build regional
relationships in neighboring Arab states, and promote
reconciliation with non-violent Ba'athists. However, many
Karbalans continue to view ISCI as the hand of Iran, planning
political or other actions also backed by the Sadrists. A
local PRT staff member, recently returned from working with a
European company overseas, complained that it is easier for
"Iranians" to get jobs in Karbala than Iraqis, because most
of the government jobs are controlled by Iraqis who fled to
Iran under Saddam's regime and now give preference to
long-term Iraqi exiles returned from Iran.

STRONG SUPPORT IN KARBALA FOR EXCLUSION OF MUTLAQ
-------------- --------------


9. (S) Protests organized by the Iraqi Political Prisoners'
Association were held in Karbala on January 21, denouncing
alleged international pressure against the Accountability and
Justice Commission's (AJC) order barring more than 500
candidates from the election, under the terms of the
Accountability and Justice law. The Deputy Chairman of the
Provincial Council, Nassif al-Khotabi (Dawlat al-Qanoun)
participated in a second protest on January 21,
characterizing "foreign interference," particularly from the
United States, as "unacceptable." Mohammed Sadiq al-Hir
(strictly protect),president of Karbala's Hotel and
Restaurant League, offered PRTOffs the view that although
coalition partner Ayad Allawi is making loud protests about
Mutlaq's ban, he is probably the Iraqi politician with the
most to gain from Mutlaq's exclusion. The same source noted
that perhaps only one or two of the banned politicians were
from Karbala and expressed strong doubts that Sunnis would
boycott the upcoming election over Mutlaq's exclusion. "They
will complain, but they will not do anything tangible."
COMMENT: FEW SURPRISES EXPECTED IN RESULTS
QCOMMENT: FEW SURPRISES EXPECTED IN RESULTS
--------------


10. (C) The reaction in the overwhelmingly Shi'a province of
Karbala to the exclusion of "Baathists" in general and MP
Salih al-Mutlaq (Reftel B) in particular from the election is
unsurprisingly positive. Most Karbalans fear a return of the
Ba'athists with a fervor that sometimes appears to border on
active paranoia. Fairly or unfairly, Mutlaq is perceived as
a Baathi and, unfortunately, "Sunni" and "Baathi" are viewed
by many in Karbala province as synonyms.


11. (C) Karbala seems poised to conduct an orderly election
process that will result in continued support for Maliki's
State of Law Alliance and the INA slate. With the gathering
of significant crowds for Arba'iniyah just a month before the
election, the potential for violence remains high as a tool
to discredit Maliki's grip on security. A walkout by GEO
employees also has the potential to delay or disrupt the
election and could create more opportunity for disruption )
violent or otherwise ) destabilizing security in Karbala.
HILL