PRT KARBALA: VOTERS IN DOUR MOOD AS UNOFFICIAL

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 000291 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2020 TAGS: PTER PGOV ASEC PREL EAID KJUS KCRM KDEM IZ SUBJECT: PRT KARBALA: VOTERS IN DOUR MOOD AS UNOFFICIAL CAMPAIGN COMMENCES REF: BAGHDAD 224 Classified By: OPA Director Greta Holtz for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) This is a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) Karbala reporting cable. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: Karbala province has been allotted ten seats in the next Council of Representatives (CoR). Local PRT employees and Karbala business and community leaders expect that Dawa will win four to five seats, the ISCI-Sadrist slate will win three to four seats, with a remaining seat(s) "up for grabs." Lower turnout than the January 2009 provincial elections is forecast due to low voter enthusiasm for the candidates or parties in advance of the official start of campaigning, expected to begin February 7. Many candidates are leveraging religious holidays in Karbala to begin getting their name out to the voters, including branded gifts of food and souvenir Imam Husayn posters. Local observers perceive improved relations between ISCI and the Sadrists after joining the Iraqi National Alliance coalition, ending the personal leader-on-leader attacks seen in the past. Reactions are unsurprisingly positive to the parliamentary Accountability and Justice Commission's action to exclude "Ba'athists" in general and MP Salih al-Mutlaq in particular from the election in the overwhelmingly Shi'a province of Karbala. END SUMMARY. VOTER MOOD IN KARBALA DOUR -------------- ¶3. (S) A senior tribal sheikh, a major local business leader, and other PRT interlocutors assess that national election results in Karbala will show continued support for PM Maliki's Dawa party, but expect a lower turnout than the 60 percent of Karbala's 564,000 voters who participated in the January 2009 provincial elections. With ten CoR seats available, most interlocutors expect Dawa will win four or five seats, ISCI and the Sadrist Trend to win three or four seats, and the remaining seat(s) to be "up for grabs" between these two blocs or possibly won by Ayad Allawi's Iraqiyya Coalition. Iraqiyya may gain this nominal representation, according to interlocutors, assuming MP Salih al-Mutlaq (IFND) ) who is widely considered to be linked to the previous regime and hated in Karbala - stays off Allawi's list. There is little enthusiasm among PRT interlocutors for the candidates or parties and low confidence that the election will produce candidates better able to improve the �00A;lives of everyday citizens. Ayatollah al-Sistani's representatives are encouraging voter participation weekly in their shrine messages, and local observers are betting that the Marjaiya will find a last minute cause to rally voters to the polls. KARBALAN ELECTION OFFICIALS READY BUT PERHAPS UNWILLING -------------- -------------- ¶4. (S) Karbala's Governorate Election Office (GEO) Director, Safa'a al-Musawy, and the UN OPS Representative, Sheikh Ali Kamounah, told Poloff that the Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC) is on track with election preparations, giving extra effort to participation in voter education and increased media involvement in pre-election activities. While there are some views among PRT interlocutors that IHEC is partisan at the national level, the local GEO staff in Karbala is generally viewed as professional and unbiased. UN OPS and others are working with international organizations and local NGOs to prepare more than ten thousand election observers representing international organizations and local citizens, as well as Iraqi political parties and coalitions. International monitors will use SMS technology to report QInternational monitors will use SMS technology to report election data from the province. Security for IHEC is being coordinated at a national level. The GEO Director and Sheikh Ali Kamounah stated that current provincial security efforts are focused on the Shi'a commemoration of Arba'iniyah (Reftel) and will shift focus to electoral preparations after the religious commemoration has concluded. PRTOffs are unaware of reports or allegations of inappropriate U.S. influence or involvement in the elections. ¶5. (S) Reports from UNAMI to PRTOffs note improvements from 2009 in USAID-funded voter education focused on 1,750 women, male youths and socially-marginalized Karbalans. Local PRT staff, Sheikh Ali Kamounah and Musawy observed that some voters remain uncertain about the voting procedures and election slates, particularly when candidates have changed parties. The GEO is participating in a variety of Ministry-sponsored voter training programs and UN OPS is sponsoring meetings with local sheikhs and community opinion leaders to promote voter participation. ¶6. (S) Musawy told PRTOff that the GEO employees have threatened to stage a walkout if national legislation granting permanent employment status is not passed by the CoR before February 7. On January 13, more than 100 local employees protested in front of Karbala's Government Center over concerns that the proposed legislation will exclude employees outside the main provincial office, although Karbala's local Parliamentary office representative reassured the protesters that all IHEC employees will be considered equally under the legislation. UNOFFICIAL CAMPAIGNING BEGINS -------------- ¶7. (C) Though official campaigning has yet to start in Karbala, many candidates are leveraging current affairs and religious holidays to begin getting their name out to the voters. Gifts of food and souvenir Imam Husayn posters were distributed during Ashura labeled as "gifts of ISCI." Maliki's press conference during his Ashura visit was conducted in front of a backdrop of a poster of Imam Husayn with the Dawa party's name. Maliki also distributed a brochure of Quranic sayings during Ashura. Various posters have appeared in Karbala promoting "Husseini" values but feature a "brought to you by" sub-line with the party's name (National Reform Party, ISCI, or Sadrists),a message amplified among Karbala's religious citizens during this intense period of mourning. (Reftel A) ¶8. (S) According to local PRT employees, ISCI and the Sadrists appear to have improved relations after joining the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) coalition in August 2009, ending the personal leader-on-leader attacks seen in the past. Local PRT staff perceive that Karbalans note ISCI leader Ammar al-Hakim has adopted new political tactics to distance himself and ISCI from Iran, build regional relationships in neighboring Arab states, and promote reconciliation with non-violent Ba'athists. However, many Karbalans continue to view ISCI as the hand of Iran, planning political or other actions also backed by the Sadrists. A local PRT staff member, recently returned from working with a European company overseas, complained that it is easier for "Iranians" to get jobs in Karbala than Iraqis, because most of the government jobs are controlled by Iraqis who fled to Iran under Saddam's regime and now give preference to long-term Iraqi exiles returned from Iran. STRONG SUPPORT IN KARBALA FOR EXCLUSION OF MUTLAQ -------------- -------------- ¶9. (S) Protests organized by the Iraqi Political Prisoners' Association were held in Karbala on January 21, denouncing alleged international pressure against the Accountability and Justice Commission's (AJC) order barring more than 500 candidates from the election, under the terms of the Accountability and Justice law. The Deputy Chairman of the Provincial Council, Nassif al-Khotabi (Dawlat al-Qanoun) participated in a second protest on January 21, characterizing "foreign interference," particularly from the United States, as "unacceptable." Mohammed Sadiq al-Hir (strictly protect),president of Karbala's Hotel and Restaurant League, offered PRTOffs the view that although coalition partner Ayad Allawi is making loud protests about Mutlaq's ban, he is probably the Iraqi politician with the most to gain from Mutlaq's exclusion. The same source noted that perhaps only one or two of the banned politicians were from Karbala and expressed strong doubts that Sunnis would boycott the upcoming election over Mutlaq's exclusion. "They will complain, but they will not do anything tangible." COMMENT: FEW SURPRISES EXPECTED IN RESULTS QCOMMENT: FEW SURPRISES EXPECTED IN RESULTS -------------- ¶10. (C) The reaction in the overwhelmingly Shi'a province of Karbala to the exclusion of "Baathists" in general and MP Salih al-Mutlaq (Reftel B) in particular from the election is unsurprisingly positive. Most Karbalans fear a return of the Ba'athists with a fervor that sometimes appears to border on active paranoia. Fairly or unfairly, Mutlaq is perceived as a Baathi and, unfortunately, "Sunni" and "Baathi" are viewed by many in Karbala province as synonyms. ¶11. (C) Karbala seems poised to conduct an orderly election process that will result in continued support for Maliki's State of Law Alliance and the INA slate. With the gathering of significant crowds for Arba'iniyah just a month before the election, the potential for violence remains high as a tool to discredit Maliki's grip on security. A walkout by GEO employees also has the potential to delay or disrupt the election and could create more opportunity for disruption ) violent or otherwise ) destabilizing security in Karbala. HILL