TRACKING DE-BA'ATHIFICATION NUMBERS GETS TRICKY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000265

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: TRACKING DE-BA'ATHIFICATION NUMBERS GETS TRICKY IN
FINAL DAYS BEFORE CANDIDATE LIST GOES TO PRINT

Classified By: A/DCM Gary A. Grappo, for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Efforts to short-circuit the AJC process by
questioning its legitimacy seem to have ground completely to
a halt, as political parties have replaced some 180-200
candidates who were disqualified by the AJC and are seeking
decisions on appeals. Embassy and UNAMI are pressing for an
expedited review of appeals and an end, or at least
suspension, of the de-Ba'athification process until after
March 7. The number of disqualified candidates remains
fluid, with IHEC continuing to receive updates and
replacements from the political parties and the AJC, as well
as additional non-de-Ba'athification-related vetting from
other ministries such as the Ministry of Interior. IHEC
plans to stop accepting changes the night of February 3 in
order to send the "final" candidate list to the printer.
Political party/coalition officials continue to walk back
previous statements that (with various caveats) threatened
boycotts. END SUMMARY.

KEEPING TRACK OF NUMBERS GETTING TRICKY
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2. (C) Keeping track of the de-Ba'athification numbers has
become tricky in the past few days as the communications
between IHEC have multiplied in a final flurry of
corrections, names dropped by parties on their own
initiative, new de-Ba'athification vetting for replacement
candidates, in tandem with media accounts that sometime
confuse these numbers with separate (non-de-Ba'athification)
vetting by Ministries of Interior (four different levels of
vetting),Defense, and Education. UNAMI's Electoral
Assistance Team Leader Sandra Mitchell confirmed that
political parties have replaced some 180-200 candidates who
were disqualified by the AJC. IHEC Commissioner Judge Qasim
al-Aboudi estimated the number to be closer to 250, in a
conversation with poloffs February 1. IHEC has subsequently
furnished those new names to the AJC for de-Ba'athification
vetting. Media reports indicate that AJC is rejecting some
of those new candidates, although in fairly small numbers.


3. (C) Aboudi and Mitchell could not provide much clarity
about media accounts citing 766 names that IHEC has sent back
to the AJC. Mitchell explained that in addition to the
replacement candidates, those names included "many"
"mistakes" IHEC was reporting to the AJC. (NOTE: Press
accounts February 1 reported a short list of names that IHEC
reinstated as candidates after reporting cases of mistaken
identity to the AJC. END NOTE.) Mitchell described the
current stage of vetting as a "fluid process" with constant
back and forth between IHEC, the political parties, and the
AJC, in addition to the vetting from the other ministries
mentioned above. She said that IHEC would close the process
down the night of February 3 and send the "final" candidate
list to the printer. Unlike the ballots, which have been
printed in the Dubai, the candidate list will be printed
locally. Mitchell said it remained "technically possible"
for IHEC to print an addendum to the candidate list as late
as February 20 if the Cassation Chamber renders decisions on
the appeals it has received. The ongoing multi-level vetting
and replacement of candidates (by parties) will likely
continue at a rapid pace until the February 3 deadline,
making difficult the tracking of totals at any given moment,
Mitchell indicated.

WALKING BACK THOSE BOYCOTT THREATS
--------------


4. (C) Political party/coalition officials continue to walk
back previous statements that (with various caveats)
Qback previous statements that (with various caveats)
threatened boycotts. Sons of Iraq leader (and member of
Bolani's Coalition of Iraq's Unity) Abu Risha publicly
disavowed February 1 comments attributed to him a day earlier
threatening a boycott. Tha'ir Naqeeb, Chairman of the Iyad
Allawi-led Iraqiyya coalition, continued the balancing act,
walking back the threat of the boycott most of the way, but
leaving it out there as "a last resort."

MELKERT MEETS AMMAR AL-HAKIM
--------------


5. (C) SRSG Melkert met with ISCI head Ammar al-Hakim January
31 to press for an expedited solution to the
de-Ba'athification controversy. According to UNAMI political
officer Wilfried Buchta Hakim voiced the need for the issue
to be resolved through the legal appeals process. He was
somewhat evasive or otherwise unresponsive when Melkert tried
to press him to be more engaged on the issue, insisting that
the controversy could only be resolved through the legal
process. Melkert was quoted after the meeting saying that the
actions of the AJC are an internal Iraqi issue.

EFFORTS AT POLITICAL INTERVENTION SHORT-CIRCUITED
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Efforts to short-circuit the AJC process by
questioning its legitimacy seem to have ground completely to
a halt, as letters seeking judicial opinions have gone
unanswered. Speaker Samarrai'e, echoing other Iraqi
political figures over the past week, told General Odierno
that he supported the ongoing appeals process as the way to
resolve the controversy. He said he supported the notion of
UNAMI taking a more public and aggressive stance calling for
the appeals to be concluded at an early date. Emboffs will
see Supreme Court Chief Judge Medhat al-Mahmoud the evening
of February 1 to gauge progress on the appeals (details to be
reported septel).
HILL