PRT NINEWA: NINEWA GOVERNOR MEASURED IN RESPONSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000245

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KISL IZ
SUBJECT: PRT NINEWA: NINEWA GOVERNOR MEASURED IN RESPONSE
TO DE-BA,ATHIFICATION EFFORTS

Classified By: Classified by Ninewa PRT Team Leader W. Patrick Murphy f
or easons 1.4 (b,d)


1. This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT)
message.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Taking a pragmatic approach to the Iraqi
Government's de-Ba'athification efforts, Ninewa Provincial
Governor Atheel al-Nujaifi suggested the current controversy
may play to the favor of coalitions most affected by the ban.
Wary of past ineffective Sunni boycotts, al-Nujaifi
suggested that opting out of the electoral process would only
serve to strengthen those behind the de-Ba'athification
efforts. Offering similar sentiments, two senior district
officials suggested that while the timing of the
disqualification efforts is disingenuous, it will not affect
the perceived legitimacy of the electoral process. In our
recent engagement, al-Nujaifi actually revealed a hint of
glee at the prospect of gaining a windfall from the
controversy. The opaque disqualification imbroglio could
become the cause clbre that aids secular coalitions like
al-Iraqia. END SUMMARY.
OPPORTUNITY FOUND IN AN "ATTACK ON DEMOCRACY"


3. (C) Ninewa PGOV al-Nujaifi,a leading Sunni Arab politician
in northern Iraq and brother of current Council of
Representatives (COR) member and al-Iraqia Coalition partner
Osama al-Nujaifi , acknowledged to Ninewa PRT Team Leader on
January 24 that some local officials have demanded a boycott
of the upcoming national parliamentary elections in response
to the GOI's de-Ba'athification efforts. Recalling
ineffective Sunni-led boycotts in the past, al-Nujaifi
referred to such rhetoric as dangerous. He said that he
would counter nascent boycott efforts by encouraging the
local population to participate in the political process,
despite characterizing the disqualification of election
candidates as an "attack on democracy."

4. (C) Finding opportunity in the controversy, al-Nujaifi
declared that the de-Ba'athification efforts will create
heroes of the excluded politicians and serve to strengthen
their respective coalitions by providing a well-publicized
rallying cry. Further demonstrating caution as a result of
the fallout of 2005's Sunni political boycott, al-Nujaifi
opined that those behind the de-Ba'athification efforts would
find great satisfaction if the most affected coalitions opted
out of the election.
THE ABSURDITY OF IT ALL

5. (C) Echoing al-Nujaifi's comments, the Deputy Mayor of Tal
Afar, Ninewa's second largest city, and the Mayor of the
Sunni Arab al-Hadr District described separately the
de-Ba,athification controversy to PRT Ninewa members as the
topic of much local discussion. They assessed that ire is
focused on the absurdity of the 11th hour action, rather than
on the legitimacy of the electoral process or even the
eventual results. Chief among the population's concerns,
each official conveyed, is the distressing notion that many
banned candidates have already served for years in the COR or
Government of Iraq administration without issue. Both
officials also said the primary objection to
de-Ba'athification is not its political motivations, but
rather that the Accountability and Justice Commission does
not trust the people enough to make their own decisions.
COMMENT: THEIR LOSS, MY GAIN


6. (C) Having motivated his Sunni base to vote in record
numbers in January 2009 by sensationalizing controversial and
polarizing issues (such as the coalition occupation),
al-Nujaifi may have identified the panacea to drive otherwise
apathetic Sunni voters to the national polls in Ninewa. He
has been surprisingly measured in his response to the
Ba,athification process, and in our January 24 engagement
QBa,athification process, and in our January 24 engagement
actually revealed a hint of glee at the prospect of gaining a
windfall from the controversy. The opaque disqualification
imbroglio could become the cause clbre that aids secular
blocs like the al-Iraqia coalition of which he is a part.
HILL