ALLAWI WALKS BACK HIS BOYCOTT THREAT; ISSAWI STILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000226 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: ALLAWI WALKS BACK HIS BOYCOTT THREAT; ISSAWI STILL WORKING POLITICAL OPTION FOR MUTLAQ Classified By: Acting Pol M/C Yuri Kim, for reasons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Iyad Allawi walked back his threat of an election boycott in public and private comments January 28.While he attempted to create the perception that the boycott threat remained a live option, he noted in other remarks that the real purpose of the remarks had been to let the Saudis and Emiratis and others in the region know about his coalition's problems and to highlight the level of Iranian involvement in the controversy. Prominent Sunni politician and DPM Rafi'e al-Issawi told Pol/C January 29 that he was also concerned by Allawi's talk of a boycott but expressed his belief that this was just a bone he tossed to Mutlaq to calm him. At Issawi's request, President Talabani sent a letter to the Accountability and Justice Commission (AJC) saying he (Talabani) saw no credible Ba'athism-related charges against Mutlaq and Dafer al-Ani and noting that he would like to see them reinstated. Issawi said he hoped the AJC would present the letter January 30 to the special three-person Council of Representatives (COR) committee overseeing the AJC's efforts. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Iyad Allawi walked back his threat of an election boycott in public and private comments January 28. In his private comments to poloff, Allawi insisted that he stood by his earlier threat of a boycott, but described it, in his key point, as "one option we're considering," and adding, "I'm not saying we're going to boycott or to ask people to boycott." Nonetheless, in other remarks to poloff, he seemed to strive to create the perception that the boycott threat remained a live option: -- He made the comments in Egypt to let the Saudis and Emiratis and others in the region know about his coalition's problems. -- He noted that he was having second thoughts about participating in a process that "benefits Iran and not the Iraqi people." -- He noted that he and others had a responsibility to try to rectify the situation and create conditions that made the Iraqi people proud. He also questioned why agents for Iranian influence should be allowed to control the political process. -- He said he was exhausting all options in Iraq and the region to find a way to move things forward and expressed hope that the U.S. would play what he termed a more constructive role to resolve the controversy. ¶3. (U) Nonetheless, publicly, Allawi had already walked by the boycott threat much further. He was quoted on al-Sharqiyah TV January 28 saying that he will strongly participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Switching from a de-Ba'athification rationale, he was quoted as cautioning, that he might revise that position and revert to a boycott position if the current arrest operations against national, liberal, secular, and Sadrist forces continue, saying that such arrests harm the political process and obstruct chances for creating a healthy environment to run the elections. ¶4. (C) Prominent Sunni politician and DPM Rafi'e al-Issawi told Pol/C January 29 that he was also concerned by Allawi's talk of a boycott but expressed his belief that this was just a bone he tossed to Mutlaq to calm him and persuade him not to escalate. Issawi said that if Mutlaq is taken off the list, Iraqiyya and the other parties would consider this enough of a fix to turn the page on the de-Ba'ath issue. ¶5. (C) Issawi said there were three lines of action being pursued to try to get Saleh al-Mutlaq and Dafer al-Ani off the list of the disqualified: -- At Issawi's request, President Talabani sent a letter to Q-- At Issawi's request, President Talabani sent a letter to the Accountability and Justice Commission (AJC) saying he (Talabani) saw no credible Ba'athism-related charges against Mutlaq and Ani and noting that he would like to see them reinstated. Noting that Chalabi is out of town, Issawi said that it was his understanding that the AJC deputy Faisale Ali al-Lami would present this letter January 30 to the special three-person Council of Representatives (COR) committee overseeing the AJC's efforts. Issawi reported that Talabani and Allawi had agreed to encourage the respective Sunni and Kurd reps to show up for the meeting. -- Mutlaq has sent a letter to Speaker Samarrai'e asking him about two issues: the impact of a previous Presidency Council decree stating that the de-Ba'athification committee (the AJC's predecessor) was defunct; and the legal implications of Article 7 of the Constitution, which requires a new law to govern the work of the de-Ba'athification committee. -- Mutlaq continues to pursue a legal appeal. HILL