DE-BA'ATHIFICATION BY THE NUMBERS

UNCLAS BAGHDAD 000222 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: DE-BA'ATHIFICATION BY THE NUMBERS ¶1. (SBU) The total universe of candidates disqualified under de-Ba'athification stands at 406. According to Accountability and Justice Commission (AJC) data provided by IHEC and UNAMI, 63 candidates have now been reinstated (removed from the list of disqualified). The AJC sent the most recent list to IHEC on January 26, publishing the 63 names. Six new names were added to the list. The total number of candidates disqualified on the most recent list is ¶456. Parties/coalitions have notified IHEC that they have taken the initiative to remove 50 candidates from their lists who are on the list of disqualified candidates. ¶2. (SBU) There has been no definitive breakdown on the sectarian identities of the list of 500-odd candidates the AJC disqualified under de-Ba'athification laws. The head of IHEC, Faraj al-Haydari told poloffs he estimated that some 50 percent of the names were Shia. Like other contacts, he pointed out that it was hard to make a definitive estimate because there is no data providing the sect of the candidate and many of the same names are used by both Sunni and Shia. ISCI bloc leader Humam al-Hamoudi estimated that 55 percent of the names were Shia. At the higher end of estimates on the sectarian breakdown of the list, contacts have estimated that as many as 65 percent on the list were Shia. ¶3. (SBU) In terms of party/list affiliation, the numbers are more precise. According to IHEC data, Iraqiyya List had 72 candidates on the list; Bolani,s Coalition of Iraq,s Unity had 67 names; Maliki,s State of Law list had 24 names; ISCI-Badr had 17 names; the Sadrists had 20 names; Kurdish bloc had 18 names; Tawafuq/IIP had 20 names; and even the Communist Party had 6 names. It is clear from these numbers that the two coalitions the hardest hit by the de-Ba'athification effort were Allawi's Iraqiyya List and Bolani's Coalition of Iraq's Unity, both led by Shia secular nationalists with broad appeal and significant Sunni support. HILL