PRT NINEWA: MOSUL MAYOR DESCRIBES DISSATISFACTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000174

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: PRT NINEWA: MOSUL MAYOR DESCRIBES DISSATISFACTION
WITH DE-BA'ATHIFICATION EFFORT

Classified By: Classified by Ninewa PRT Leader W. Patrick Murphy for Re
asons 1.4 (b,d).


1. This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT)
message.


2. (C) SUMMARY: As news spreads about the effort to ban
candidates from the March national election on the grounds
that they are Ba'athists, the mayor of Mosul claimed in a
January 17 meeting that authorities in Baghdad plan to ban
more candidates, including him and other Ninewa politicians.
Although it is not clear that the Mayor's information about
an additional list is accurate, rumors of same have inflamed
fears among Ninewa's Sunni population, who suspect sectarian
motives and believe Iraqi reconciliation remains limited to
Kurds and the Shi'a. The mayor, requesting USG intervention
on his behalf, said several dozen Sunni sheikhs planned to
organize efforts in Ninewa to boycott the election if/if a
second list of candidates was released. PRT and USD-N
stressed U.S. support for a credible and legitimate election
and underscored the importance of full participation by all
Iraqis. Although the Mayor may be exaggerating the threat of
a boycott, the effort to disqualify alleged Ba'athists will
do little to disabuse Ninewa's Sunnis of their suspicion that
real Shi'a)Sunni reconciliation remains years away. END
SUMMARY.
A SECOND LIST ON THE WAY?


3. (C) On January 17, Zuhair Muhsin'Abd-al-Aziz al-Araji, the
Shi'a Arab Mayor of Mosul, met with the PRT and U.S. Division
North (USD-N) Deputy Commanding General (DCG) at his request
for an "urgent" encounter. Zuhair said he had received 30
tribal leaders on January 16 who criticized the perceived
sectarian nature of the ongoing effort to ban candidates from
participating in upcoming parliamentary elections on the
pretext that they have Ba'athist ties. Zuhair also said
sources in Baghdad had informed him that another list of
individuals with ostensible Ba'athist ties, who would
presumably be banned from participating in the election, will
be released in the coming days. (Note: A series of rumors
about new or expanded lists of candidates to be banned have
circulated in Baghdad and elsewhere. End note.) That list
reportedly contains up to 1,000 names, including his own.

4. (C) Zuhair said Sunni tribal leaders in Ninewa (and
possibly in Diyala and Salah al-Din) planned to organize
efforts to boycott the election if/if a second list of
candidates was released. Believing that the disqualification
smacks of strong Iranian influence in Baghdad, Zuhair claimed
the tribes may work to prevent the establishment of voting
centers and bar voters from participating in any way.
Describing the three-day appeals window for disqualified
candidates as impractical, Zuhair explained that he does not
intend to appeal the ruling if he must rely on an unjust
process to do so (e.g., buying his way off the list, as he
claimed other politicians are doing). He added that he lacks
the requisite funds and would instead consider leaving the
country.
ASKING USG TO INTERVENE


5. (C) Zuhair asked the PRT and USF to intervene on his
behalf, citing his long support for USF in Ninewa and
proclaiming that he was not a "true Ba,athist". He admitted
to joining the Ba'ath Party to continue his college studies
in the 1980's and rising to the rank of colonel in the army
before being purged in the 1990,s. PRT poloff and USD-N DCG
stressed strong U.S. support for a credible and legitimate
national election and the importance of the full
participation in the election. Over the past six years,
Mayor Zuhair has served with the United Iraqi Alliance, the
Sadrist Movement, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistanand the
QSadrist Movement, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistanand the
al-Hadba Gathering. He currently plans to run on Sheikh
Abdullah al-Yawar's Iraqi Justice and Reform Movement list
for a CoR seat.
COMMENT


6. (C) Although Mayor Zuhair, who was clearly distressed, may
be exaggerating the threat that tribal leaders could
orchestrate a Sunni boycott of the election, such sentiments
are symptomatic of the undercurrent in Sunni politics in
Ninewa. The effort to disqualify alleged Ba'athists will do
little to disabuse Ninewa's Sunnis of their suspicion that
real Shi,a)Sunni reconciliation remains years away.
Perception continues to dominate reality in the province,
where recent media portrayals of IHEC,s decertification
process and the continued view among influential local
leaders that Baghdad is little more than an Iranian puppet
may have a more profound effect on the election in Ninewa
than any of the candidates' political campaigns.
HILL