PRT NINEWA: MOSUL MAYOR DESCRIBES DISSATISFACTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000174 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ SUBJECT: PRT NINEWA: MOSUL MAYOR DESCRIBES DISSATISFACTION WITH DE-BA'ATHIFICATION EFFORT Classified By: Classified by Ninewa PRT Leader W. Patrick Murphy for Re asons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: As news spreads about the effort to ban candidates from the March national election on the grounds that they are Ba'athists, the mayor of Mosul claimed in a January 17 meeting that authorities in Baghdad plan to ban more candidates, including him and other Ninewa politicians. Although it is not clear that the Mayor's information about an additional list is accurate, rumors of same have inflamed fears among Ninewa's Sunni population, who suspect sectarian motives and believe Iraqi reconciliation remains limited to Kurds and the Shi'a. The mayor, requesting USG intervention on his behalf, said several dozen Sunni sheikhs planned to organize efforts in Ninewa to boycott the election if/if a second list of candidates was released. PRT and USD-N stressed U.S. support for a credible and legitimate election and underscored the importance of full participation by all Iraqis. Although the Mayor may be exaggerating the threat of a boycott, the effort to disqualify alleged Ba'athists will do little to disabuse Ninewa's Sunnis of their suspicion that real Shi'a)Sunni reconciliation remains years away. END SUMMARY. A SECOND LIST ON THE WAY? ¶3. (C) On January 17, Zuhair Muhsin'Abd-al-Aziz al-Araji, the Shi'a Arab Mayor of Mosul, met with the PRT and U.S. Division North (USD-N) Deputy Commanding General (DCG) at his request for an "urgent" encounter. Zuhair said he had received 30 tribal leaders on January 16 who criticized the perceived sectarian nature of the ongoing effort to ban candidates from participating in upcoming parliamentary elections on the pretext that they have Ba'athist ties. Zuhair also said sources in Baghdad had informed him that another list of individuals with ostensible Ba'athist ties, who would presumably be banned from participating in the election, will be released in the coming days. (Note: A series of rumors about new or expanded lists of candidates to be banned have circulated in Baghdad and elsewhere. End note.) That list reportedly contains up to 1,000 names, including his own. ¶4. (C) Zuhair said Sunni tribal leaders in Ninewa (and possibly in Diyala and Salah al-Din) planned to organize efforts to boycott the election if/if a second list of candidates was released. Believing that the disqualification smacks of strong Iranian influence in Baghdad, Zuhair claimed the tribes may work to prevent the establishment of voting centers and bar voters from participating in any way. Describing the three-day appeals window for disqualified candidates as impractical, Zuhair explained that he does not intend to appeal the ruling if he must rely on an unjust process to do so (e.g., buying his way off the list, as he claimed other politicians are doing). He added that he lacks the requisite funds and would instead consider leaving the country. ASKING USG TO INTERVENE ¶5. (C) Zuhair asked the PRT and USF to intervene on his behalf, citing his long support for USF in Ninewa and proclaiming that he was not a "true Ba,athist". He admitted to joining the Ba'ath Party to continue his college studies in the 1980's and rising to the rank of colonel in the army before being purged in the 1990,s. PRT poloff and USD-N DCG stressed strong U.S. support for a credible and legitimate national election and the importance of the full participation in the election. Over the past six years, Mayor Zuhair has served with the United Iraqi Alliance, the Sadrist Movement, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistanand the QSadrist Movement, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistanand the al-Hadba Gathering. He currently plans to run on Sheikh Abdullah al-Yawar's Iraqi Justice and Reform Movement list for a CoR seat. COMMENT ¶6. (C) Although Mayor Zuhair, who was clearly distressed, may be exaggerating the threat that tribal leaders could orchestrate a Sunni boycott of the election, such sentiments are symptomatic of the undercurrent in Sunni politics in Ninewa. The effort to disqualify alleged Ba'athists will do little to disabuse Ninewa's Sunnis of their suspicion that real Shi,a)Sunni reconciliation remains years away. Perception continues to dominate reality in the province, where recent media portrayals of IHEC,s decertification process and the continued view among influential local leaders that Baghdad is little more than an Iranian puppet may have a more profound effect on the election in Ninewa than any of the candidates' political campaigns. HILL