DIWANIYAH ELECTION UPDATE: HUNT FOR TRIBAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000171

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2020
TAGS: PGOV PTER IZ
SUBJECT: DIWANIYAH ELECTION UPDATE: HUNT FOR TRIBAL
SUPPORT HEATS UP, MIXED REACTIONS ON MUTLAQ

REF: A. BAGHDAD 32

B. BAGHDAD 136

Classified By: Diwaniyah PRT Team Leader Michael Klecheski. Reasons: 1
.4 (b/d)


1. This is a PRT Diwaniyah cable.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Although public campaigning in Diwaniyah
Province for the March elections has yet to get underway,
behind-the-scenes preparations are heating up. Most notably,
parties seek to gain the support of key tribal leaders.
Reactions to the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC)
decision to exclude a number of candidates, ostensibly under
the provisions of the Accountability and Justice Law, are
mixed but generally not favorable. The PRT sees no signs
that locals expect an outburst of violence in Diwaniyah. END
SUMMARY
CAMPAIGN PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY
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3. (C) Behind-the-scenes preparations for the elections
campaign are underway, ahead of the official public
campaigning. In Diwaniyah province, a total of 20 political
entities and 253 candidates have registered with IHEC; some
600,000 registered voters will cast ballots for 11 seats in
Iraq,s next parliament. The mayor of Saniyah, a town near
Diwaniyah city, told us his small party, for which he is a
candidate, is gathering funds and beginning to produce
campaign literature. He is quietly pressing his own
candidacy, stressing the achievements he has made as mayor.
He is also mobilizing his tribal connections to garner
support. The mayor of Sudayr, another town near the
provincial capital, described to us what he termed the
effective efforts of the provincial branch of the Islamic
Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) to play on the public,s
dissatisfaction with Diwaniyah,s current Governor. (Ref. A
and previous.) Nonetheless, he noted, PM Maliki remains
popular in the province, andvoters will be torn between
voting for Da'wa because of Maliki or voting for ISCI to
&punish8 the province,s Da'wa-led administration.
EFFORTS TO WIN OVER TRIBAL LEADERS
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4. (C) According to Sheikh Nabeel Sakban, one of the
province,s most prominent tribal leaders, parties are making
strong, if covert, bids for tribal leaders, support. Sakban
reported having been approached by ISCI and Ayad Allawi,s
Iraqiya for support, even though he is known to favor Da'wa.
ISCI representatives suggested to him that they would do a
better job than the incumbent government of compensating
tribal leaders like him for losses due to agricultural woes.
He told PRToffs that the ISCI activists also implicitly
reminded him that they had made life difficult for him when
ISCI controlled Diwaniyah,s provincial government, subtly
suggesting that they would do so again unless he supported
them in the upcoming campaign. Sakban said he would continue
to support Da'wa given his loyalty to the PM, but worried
that ISCI might sway other tribal leaders through offers of
money, jobs for members of their tribes, and other forms of
government support. Sakban worried that Da'wa was not
preparing for its campaign as aggressively as ISCI in the
province, and that Da'wa,s candidates were too closely
linked with the relatively unpopular provincial
administration.
REACTIONS TO THE MUTLAQ DECISION: &IT,S JUST POLITICS8
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5. (C) Although there is widespread contempt among local
officials in Diwaniyah for Sunni MP Saleh al-Mutlaq, we have
heard mixed reactions to IHEC,s decision to exclude him and
other candidates from the elections. (Ref. B). Sakban said
the decision was unfortunate, since it threatened to disrupt
Qthe decision was unfortunate, since it threatened to disrupt
the elections. A close PRT contact in the province,s Health
Department echoed that view, saying it could turn the
elections into a farce. He suggested that unless the
decision was reversed, Iraqis would have to wait for the next
national elections to get the process right. Several
advisors to the PC told us that much of the population in
this predominantly Shi,a province, though in no way
sympathetic to Ba'athists, viewed the decision skeptically,
seeing it as politically motivated. Some interlocutors,
including the Sudayr mayor, took a different approach,
welcoming the removal of &the traitor Mutlaq.8 The mayor
conceded that it could disrupt the elections but felt it was
an appropriate decision. Similarly, a journalist with the
Ittihad newspaper described Mutlaq as acting ¬ as a
member of the political process but as a rival for the whole
system,8 who should be excluded from the election.

6. (SBU) According to PRT media contacts, some one hundred
people attempted to hold a demonstration on January 16
against Ba,athist participation in the elections, but the
Governor refused them permission to demonstrate. A contact
in the Provincial Council Chairman's office corroborated the
account. He also told the PRT he does not expect further

attempts to demonstrate in Diwaniyah about the issue.
Despite his refusal to let the demonstration proceed, the
Governor has taken a tough line against the Ba,athists,
including in a January 18 conference in Diwaniyah in which he
described Ba,athist efforts to &foil8 the political
process, and the incumbent government,s steps to counter
those efforts.

7. (C) The January 14 bombings in Najaf raised concerns in
Diwaniyah, reportedly leading to a tightening of police
checkpoints to prevent a similar occurrence in this province.
One well connected journalist told us that the most common
explanation is that the bombings were a response to the IHEC
decision. According to PRT media contacts, some locals
believe, however, that the incident was connected to recent
Saudi religious authorities, statements against Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
COMMENT

8. (C) Diwaniyah has seen little political violence and,
though locals believe there could be an uptick in violence as
the campaign heats up, they do not expect a huge flare-up in
the period ahead. The PRT's sense is that the January 14
bombings in neighboring Najaf have not significantly altered
the thinking of Diwaniyah,s population on that score.
HILL