MP MUTLAQ TO APPEAL ELECTION BAR; SEEKS USG,

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000110 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2020 TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: MP MUTLAQ TO APPEAL ELECTION BAR; SEEKS USG, INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION REF: BAGHDAD 0109 Classified By: A/DCM Gary A. Grappo for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Sunni MP Saleh al-Mutlaq appealed to the A/DCM for USG and international community intervention to prevent him and other candidates from being barred from running in the parliamentary elections. He asked that pressure be brought on senior GOI officials to halt what he termed "an illegal action" by the Accountability and Justice Commission (AJC) to bar him under de-Ba'athification provisions of the AJC law. He claimed the effort was being sponsored by Iran. He cited signs of political support from ISCI leader Ammar al-Hakim and Kurdish GOI President Jalal Talabani and suggested USG intervention with them would be effective. Mutlaq said he and other barred candidates from his coalition would appeal their cases, though raising concern about whether a fair decision would be rendered. End summary. ¶2. (C) Sunni MP and Iraqiya coalition co-leader Saleh al-Mutlaq described the Accountability and Justice Commission (AJC) action to bar him and other parliamentary candidates from participation in the election as an Iranian sponsored action, implemented by Ahmed Chalabi and aimed at dividing the country. If it continued it would create a very dangerous situation for the country (reftel). He believed this action was not possible without high-level GOI acquiescence. ¶3. (C) Mutlaq described the situation as very serious and added that the only way forward was for the USG and the international community to exert pressure on GOI leaders, conveying that "they will not accept that democracy is not implemented." He said that Chalabi and his collaborator, AJC Executive Director Faisal al-Lami, would withdraw their action in the face of such pressure. If this effort to bar large numbers of candidates from election to the parliament went forward, it would continue "negative politics in Iraq." He stressed that without USG and UN pressure, there would be no positive action. Waxing alarmist, he said, "This is a coup. It must be stopped." The USG had a responsibility to ensure fair elections and also not to permit Chalabi, whom the U.S. had brought back to Iraq, to succeed. ¶4. (C) Mutlaq said he was telling his supporters not to engage in public protest demonstrations or resort to violence, but that it was not possible to control everyone. Thus every effort should be made to resolve this situation as soon as possible. He warned "there may come a day to go out in the street to protest this action." Mutlaq said that he was still telling his suppporters to "vote" regardless of the effort to bar him, though he noted there were calls for an election boycott from within his party. ¶5. (C) Mutlaq described domestic political support from some Shi'a leaders, citing a letter from Ammar al-Hakim (Iraqi National Alliance - INA) stating that the Marja'iyya was not happy with the AJC action and that Mutlaq was "his friend and future partner." Mutlaq added that other INA leaders, Nasir al-Rubaie (Sadr) and Qasim Dawood (Solidarity),were also against it. Mutlaq threw out an alternate possibility of the U.S. pushing GOI leaders, specifically President Talabani, to convene a President's Council for National Security (PCNS) to find a political solution to the issue. He said that Talabani had communicated to him that, "We support you against this," because he knew that "Mutlaq was with us (the Kurds)" against Saddam. Mutlaq asserted that he believed that Hakim and Talabani would be receptive to USG Qthat Hakim and Talabani would be receptive to USG intervention on this issue. (COMMENT: Talabani did not appear receptive to such USG intervention during a January 13 telephone conversation with the Ambassador. End comment). ¶6. (C) Mutlaq noted that there was resistance in the Kurdish camp from parliamentary Deputy Speaker Arif Tayfour because of an incident on the floor of parliament on July 22, 2007 in which a sharp exchange between the two resulted in Mutlaq making sarcastic responses to the effect "Yes, I am a Ba'athist. I vote for Ba'athists." He said the accusation that he was serious is ridiculous. He said that Tayfour had said "if Mutlaq apologizes for July 22, we will drop our opposition." ¶7. (C) Mutlaq offered thoughts on why "they" (Shi'a) had done this to him. At odds with his earlier remarks about ISCI Hakim's support for him, Mutlaq claimed that there was a secret agreement between Allawi and INA to join together but that INA viewed Mutlaq as an obstacle and that the AJC action aimed at removing him from the equation. ¶8. (C) Mutlaq indicated he and the other barred candidates would appeal the decision of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) to the Electoral Judicial Panel (EJP),a special three-judge body for the review of IHEC decisions. He stressed that if the judges ruled based on the law, he would win, but that there was no assurance that would be the case. In discussing the specifics of the appeal process, Mutlaq did not have a clear understanding of the process for what could be a two-pronged appeal process -- one appeal, to a specially chartered judicial panel for the legal review of AJC acitons, and another appeal, of the IHEC decision, to a EJP. A/DCM stressed the importance of pursuing the legal track simultaneously with the political track. HILL