Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10ASHGABAT237
2010-02-24 10:39:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ashgabat
Cable title:
TURKMENISTAN'S TEPID SUPPORT FOR TAPI
how-toVZCZCXRO1809 RR RUEHIK DE RUEHAH #0237/01 0551039 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 241039Z FEB 10 FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4282 INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 6285 RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3957 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 3816 RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 4529 RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1498 RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 4426 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000237
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN
COMMERCE FOR EHOUSE/DSTARKS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EPET PGOV EINV ADB IN TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN'S TEPID SUPPORT FOR TAPI
ASHGABAT 00000237 001.2 OF 002
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000237
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN
COMMERCE FOR EHOUSE/DSTARKS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EPET PGOV EINV ADB IN TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN'S TEPID SUPPORT FOR TAPI
ASHGABAT 00000237 001.2 OF 002
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.
2. (SBU) SUMMARY: A number of international media outlets have
reported that the Turkmen Government again expressed an
interest in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan [-India]
(TAPI or TAP) pipeline project. The reports appeared
following an intergovernmental meeting between Turkmen and
Indian officials held on February 8. The Turkmen also
discussed TAPI during a recent visit by Asian Development Bank
President Haruhiko Kuroda. Despite the discussions, there are
grounds to believe that the Turkmen Government is not
considering the TAPI project seriously, mentioning it only
during meetings with the project-related countries. END
SUMMARY.
3. (SBU) The meeting between Turkmen and Indian officials was
held under the framework of the Turkmen-Indian
Intergovernmental Commission. Reportedly, the two sides
discussed the whole spectrum of Turkmen-Indian cooperation,
and TAPI was just one of many issues. According to a Turkmen
Oil and Gas Ministry official, no significant decisions on
TAPI were made during the meeting and the project is still
firmly on hold in Turkmenistan.
4. (SBU) Turkmen media covered the Turkmen-Indian commission
meeting without mentioning the TAPI project. The Turkmen
media also did not mention the project in their reports about
Berdimuhamedov's meeting with the Indian State Minister for
External Affairs Preneet Kaur, who led the Indian delegation.
The only recent mention of the TAPI project in local media
reports occurred four days after the Turkmen-Indian commission
meeting, as part of the coverage of a Cabinet of Ministers
meeting. Turkmen media reported that, at the meeting,
Berdimuhamedov confirmed Turkmenistan's interest in
implementing the TAPI project.
5. (SBU) Asian Development Bank (ADB) President Haruhiko
Kuroda confirmed to poloff that TAPI was discussed during his
meeting with Berdimuhamedov on February 18. While Kuroda
indicated that the Turkmen remain interested in the project,
he noted that the security situation in Afghanistan and
India's reluctance to commit to TAPI are the two most
significant obstacles. He said India could decide to import
gas from Burma as an alternative to TAPI, and that without the
Indian market, TAPI would not be feasible.
6. (SBU) The TAPI (or TAP) gas pipeline project was first
proposed in the mid-1990s after Turkmenistan and Pakistan
signed a memorandum of understanding to that effect in 1995.
The project would supply up to 33 bcm of gas from Turkmenistan
to Pakistan and India annually. U.S. energy firm Unocal
formed a consortium to implement the project in 1996. The
project froze after Unocal withdrew from the consortium in
1998.
7. (SBU) The project saw another burst of activity in 2002-
2003 when Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan decided to
revive the project and signed a framework agreement to
construct the pipeline. The ADB joined the project as a
facilitator and provided a million dollar grant to conduct a
feasibility study for the project. After Turkmenistan signed
a 25-year gas purchase agreement with Gazprom in 2003, the
Turkmen appeared to lose interest in TAPI, failing to provide
the requisite audit of the Dowletabad gas field that would
supply the pipeline. The Turkmen Government's failure to release
results of the recent Gaffney-Cline audit has further curtailed
Indian interest in the project; the Government of India is
unlikely to commit to the project until the Turkmen confirm
ASHGABAT 00000237 002.2 OF 002
they have sufficient gas reserves. NOTE: The Dovletebad field,
which would supply TAPI under the original plan, currently
supplies both Russia and Iran and is in decline.
8. (SBU) COMMENT: Given security challenges and uncertainty
about the Indian market, it does not seem likely that the
Turkmen Government will pursue the TAPI project seriously any
time soon. With the new pipeline to China, growing export
obligations to Iran, and resumed supplies to Russia already on
its hands, Turkmenistan will be stretched to supply gas
through existing pipelines in the midterm. Still, the Turkmen
are unlikely to rule out eventual participation in TAPI since
the TAPI concept buttresses its policy of diversifying gas
export routes. END COMMENT.
CURRAN
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN
COMMERCE FOR EHOUSE/DSTARKS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EPET PGOV EINV ADB IN TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN'S TEPID SUPPORT FOR TAPI
ASHGABAT 00000237 001.2 OF 002
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.
2. (SBU) SUMMARY: A number of international media outlets have
reported that the Turkmen Government again expressed an
interest in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan [-India]
(TAPI or TAP) pipeline project. The reports appeared
following an intergovernmental meeting between Turkmen and
Indian officials held on February 8. The Turkmen also
discussed TAPI during a recent visit by Asian Development Bank
President Haruhiko Kuroda. Despite the discussions, there are
grounds to believe that the Turkmen Government is not
considering the TAPI project seriously, mentioning it only
during meetings with the project-related countries. END
SUMMARY.
3. (SBU) The meeting between Turkmen and Indian officials was
held under the framework of the Turkmen-Indian
Intergovernmental Commission. Reportedly, the two sides
discussed the whole spectrum of Turkmen-Indian cooperation,
and TAPI was just one of many issues. According to a Turkmen
Oil and Gas Ministry official, no significant decisions on
TAPI were made during the meeting and the project is still
firmly on hold in Turkmenistan.
4. (SBU) Turkmen media covered the Turkmen-Indian commission
meeting without mentioning the TAPI project. The Turkmen
media also did not mention the project in their reports about
Berdimuhamedov's meeting with the Indian State Minister for
External Affairs Preneet Kaur, who led the Indian delegation.
The only recent mention of the TAPI project in local media
reports occurred four days after the Turkmen-Indian commission
meeting, as part of the coverage of a Cabinet of Ministers
meeting. Turkmen media reported that, at the meeting,
Berdimuhamedov confirmed Turkmenistan's interest in
implementing the TAPI project.
5. (SBU) Asian Development Bank (ADB) President Haruhiko
Kuroda confirmed to poloff that TAPI was discussed during his
meeting with Berdimuhamedov on February 18. While Kuroda
indicated that the Turkmen remain interested in the project,
he noted that the security situation in Afghanistan and
India's reluctance to commit to TAPI are the two most
significant obstacles. He said India could decide to import
gas from Burma as an alternative to TAPI, and that without the
Indian market, TAPI would not be feasible.
6. (SBU) The TAPI (or TAP) gas pipeline project was first
proposed in the mid-1990s after Turkmenistan and Pakistan
signed a memorandum of understanding to that effect in 1995.
The project would supply up to 33 bcm of gas from Turkmenistan
to Pakistan and India annually. U.S. energy firm Unocal
formed a consortium to implement the project in 1996. The
project froze after Unocal withdrew from the consortium in
1998.
7. (SBU) The project saw another burst of activity in 2002-
2003 when Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan decided to
revive the project and signed a framework agreement to
construct the pipeline. The ADB joined the project as a
facilitator and provided a million dollar grant to conduct a
feasibility study for the project. After Turkmenistan signed
a 25-year gas purchase agreement with Gazprom in 2003, the
Turkmen appeared to lose interest in TAPI, failing to provide
the requisite audit of the Dowletabad gas field that would
supply the pipeline. The Turkmen Government's failure to release
results of the recent Gaffney-Cline audit has further curtailed
Indian interest in the project; the Government of India is
unlikely to commit to the project until the Turkmen confirm
ASHGABAT 00000237 002.2 OF 002
they have sufficient gas reserves. NOTE: The Dovletebad field,
which would supply TAPI under the original plan, currently
supplies both Russia and Iran and is in decline.
8. (SBU) COMMENT: Given security challenges and uncertainty
about the Indian market, it does not seem likely that the
Turkmen Government will pursue the TAPI project seriously any
time soon. With the new pipeline to China, growing export
obligations to Iran, and resumed supplies to Russia already on
its hands, Turkmenistan will be stretched to supply gas
through existing pipelines in the midterm. Still, the Turkmen
are unlikely to rule out eventual participation in TAPI since
the TAPI concept buttresses its policy of diversifying gas
export routes. END COMMENT.
CURRAN