SCENESETTER FOR SRAP HOLBROOKE'S VISIT TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ASHGABAT 000211

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN;

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV TX
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SRAP HOLBROOKE'S VISIT TO
TURKMENISTAN

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1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for Internet
distribution.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes your
visit to Turkmenistan as an opportunity to strengthen our
bilateral diplomatic dialogue and highlight our desire for
greater cooperation involving Afghanistan. Key issues are
our need to increase the number of humanitarian overflights
for U.S. military aircraft headed to Afghanistan, the
resumption of blanket landing permission for U.S. military
aircraft at Ashgabat airport, and greater Turkmen involvement
in humanitarian and reconstruction activities in Afghanistan.
President Berdimuhamedov attended UNGA in September 2009, on
the margins of which he also met with U.S. companies and was
warmly received in Trenton, New Jersey. Foreign Minister
Rashid Meredov traveled to Washington in June 2009 for
consultations with USG officials. Under Secretary Burns met
with both Berdimuhamedov and Meredov in Ashgabat during a
July 2009 visit. CENTCOM Commander General Petraeus met with
Berdimuhamedov in August.


3. (SBU) Now in the third year of his presidency, President
Berdimuhamedov appears self-confident in his role as
Turkmenistan's supreme authority. He will not hesitate to
speak his mind during your meeting. Instead of the
widespread, rapid reform that was hoped for after his rise to
power, we have seen little substantive change in policies
that impact the general public. While Turkmenistan will
gradually bring its legislation more in line with
international levels, implementation of revised laws remains
ineffective. In foreign policy, Berdimuhamedov actively
pursues contacts in all directions, but applies the country's
"neutrality" policy to limit the substance of its foreign
engagement. The Turkmen government would like to see a
UN-brokered peace in Afghanistan and sends humanitarian
assistance to Afghanistan on a bilateral basis. The Turkmen
government relies heavily on top-down decision making.
Presidential backing is considered both essential and
sufficient for the successful and timely implementation of
any policy initiative. END SUMMARY.

SECURITY


4. (SBU) The U.S. security relationship with Turkmenistan
continues to unfold, with slow but consistent cooperation.
Although basing is not an option, Turkmenistan remains an
important conduit to Afghanistan for the U.S. military.
Maintaining blanket overflight permission and restoring
blanket landing permission for U.S. humanitarian airflights
at Ashgabat Airport remain key U.S. goals. We have
repeatedly asked, so far without success, for an increase of
the number of overflights. We received a firm refusal of
permission for overland transit of nonlethal supplies to
Afghanistan.


5. (SBU) Turkmenistan allows the United States a generous
overflight agreement (relative to other countries),which was
renewed on November 29, 2009. The Turkmenistan blanket
clearance number 999C was first granted to U.S. military
aircraft in 2003. It has never provided unlimited permission
to operate within Turkmen airspace and for this reason is
sometimes described as a restricted blanket clearance. The
blanket permission is authorized solely for delivery of
humanitarian assistance and to help stabilize and rebuild the
nation of Afghanistan. Aircraft must follow strict flight
profiles and can utilize only select call signs. Aircraft
are required to file an international flight plan prior to
entering Turkmenistan airspace and cannot deviate from that
flight plan while in Turkmenistan. Blanket permission is
limited to certain U.S. military aircraft. Civil reserve air
fleet and DoD contract carriers are not eligible for the
automatic clearance. In spite of these limitations, the
Turkmenistan blanket number 999C is considered vital to
maintaining an effective western air bridge to U.S. forces in

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Afghanistan. In addition to overflight permission, the
Turkmen government allows the U.S. to operate a small gas and
go opeation at Ashgabat Airport to refuel U.S. military
cargo aircraft.


6. (SBU) AFCENT, Central Command's air component, is in the
process of assisting Turkmenistan's National Civil Aviation
Service that would enable it to increase its technical
capacity to safely handle an increased number of overflights.
We are currently working on a project to alleviate the
communications issues between Turkmenabat air traffic
control, U.S. aircraft and Kabul. This should be delivered
and in the process of installation in April. That project
would likely need to be complete before being able to execute
a significant increase in overflights.


7. (SBU) The Turkmen government has flatly rejected our
request for transshipment of non-lethal U.S. cargo to
Afghanistan. There are several reasons why it has opposed
participating in the Northern Distribution Network (NDN).
The first is Turkmenistan's own stated neutrality, which
prevents them from participating in military alliances or
agreements. This highlights the unique status of our extant
overflight agreement. There also appears to be reluctance to
support U.S. and NATO forces too openly as long as the
ultimate outcome of the Afghan war remains uncertain. The
Turkmen government coexisted with the Taliban as neighbors in
the past and would want to avoid an irreparable breach in
case the Taliban return to power. The long, porous
Turkmen-Afghan border would make Turkmenistan an easy target
for reprisals. Also, a Turkmen desire to avoid possible
negative Russian (and Iranian) perceptions of military
cooperation with the United States appears to affect their
decision making.


8. (SBU) CENTCOM and Turkmenistan's military maintain an
active military-to-military cooperation plan and a productive
counter-narcotics program. CENTCOM Counter Narcotics has
funded several mil-to-mil events as well as three
border-crossing checkpoints (BCCs),on the borders of Iran
(Altyn Asyr),Afghanistan (Imamnazar),and Uzbekistan
(Farap). CENTCOM intends to build another two BCCs as well
as provide equipment and training to the State Counter
Narcotics Service and State Border Service. U.S. security
assistance programs focus on improving the communications
capability of the Turkmenistan armed forces in the areas of
emergency response and border security, English language
ability, in addition to building a future leadership with
western principles. With the assistance of the Embassy's
Export Control and related Border Security (EXBS) program,
the Embassy works to strengthen Turkmenistan's border
security and increase their ability to interdict smuggling of
weapons of mass destruction.

FOREIGN POLICY


9. (SBU) Like his predecessor Niyazov, Berdimuhamedov has
emphasized "neutrality" as the hallmark of the country's
foreign policy. Unlike his predecessor, however, he has
interepreted "neutrality" not as isolation, but as promoting
an even-handed and multi-vectored foreign policy.
Nevertheless, he has put an unprecedented emphasis on foreign
affairs to repair Turkmenistan's international and regional
relations and to become a respected player on the
international stage. Recent foreign trips by President
Berdimuhamedov to Italy, Japan, Belarus, France and the UAE,
and recent visits to Ashgabat by Chinese, Russian, Kazakh,
Uzbek and Iranian leaders, have been opportunities for the
Turkmen to reaffirm their multi-directional foreign policy.
Under the president's leadership, Turkmenistan has reached
out to participate actively in regional organizations. He
has met with all the leaders in the region, as well as with
those of other countries of importance to Turkmenistan.
China has a strong and growing commercial presence in

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Turkmenistan, and continues to court the president through a
series of high-level commercial and political visits.
Berdimuhamedov addressed the UNGA in September 2009 and has
held positive meetings with high-level leaders of
international organizations (including both the UN and the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) that
have led to cooperative relationships. The international
financial institutions play a minor role in Turkmenistan,
with the exception of the EBRD.

REGIONAL POLICY


10. (SBU) Accompanying the president's focus on reaching out
to Turkmenistan's near and more distant neighbors has been an
increased effort to participate in and cooperate with
regional fora. During President Berdimuhamedov's tenure,
Turkmenistan has become an increasingly active player in a
number of regional fora, including the (counter-narcotics)
Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Center,
the Central Asian Trade Investment Framework Agreement
mechanism (TIFA),and the European Union's Central Asian
Troika process. Nevertheless, Turkmenistan prefers to deal
with other countries bilaterally. It is a stong proponent of
the UN and will often choose to participate in activities
that under UN aegis.

ASSISTANCE TO AFGHANISTAN


11. (SBU) Turkmenistan participates in regional
reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and has sponsored a
number of Afghan students at its universities and pedagogical
institutes in the past. In early April 2008, the Turkmen
government agreed to bolster by 2010 the electricity it is
already selling to Afghanistan by an additional 300
megawatts. However, this has not happened, in part, due to
inadequate infrastructure on the Afghan side. The president
also agreed to extend the current price at which Turkmenistan
is selling electricity to Afghanistan -- 2 cents per kilowatt
hour -- to 2010. Concerning Afghanistan, Foreign Minister
Meredov responded to a briefing on current U.S. policy by
saying that Turkmenistan also sees the problems in
Afghanistan and Pakistan as linked, and that they cannot be
solved simply by military means. Turkmenistan donates
humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, particularly in the northern
part of the country, constructing schools, hospitals and
other projects.

ENERGY


12. (SBU) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas reserves,
but in the past, Russia's near monopoly of the country's
energy export routes made it overly beholden to Russia. The
opening of new pipelines to China in December 2009 and Iran
in January should reduce Turkmenistan's reliance on Russia.
The construction of a new generation facility and
high-voltage electricity lines to transport excess energy to
Turkmenistan's neighbors, including Afghanistan, would not
only enhance Turkmenistan's economic and political
sovereignty, but also help fuel new levels of prosperity
throughout the region. A long-discussed USAID-supported plan
to ship Turkmen electricity to Afghanistan appears to have
lost traction due to a change in Afghan government investment
priorities. However, Berdimuhamedov has told U.S.
interlocutors he recognizes the need for more energy export
options and has taken the first steps to this end. He will
require encouragement and assistance from the international
community if he is to maintain a course of diversification
now that relations with Gazprom appear to be patched up.


13. (SBU) One of the biggest challenges that Turkmenistan's
hydrocarbon sector will have to face, if it is to succeed in
pipeline diversification, is the need for increased
natural-gas production. Large increases will be needed as
new pipelines come online. While Turkmenistan has welcomed

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foreign companies to work its offshore (primarily oil)
Caspian blocks, it has up to now largely rejected allowing
foreign energy companies to work its onshore gas fields,
maintaining that it can handle the drilling itself. U.S.
policy has promoted access to onshore production by major
Western oil companies. President Berdimuhamedov has
repeatedly told visiting U.S. officials that foreign
companies would not be granted production sharing agreements
for the development of onshore gas deposits.

HUMAN RIGHTS


14. (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov has made a public
commitment to bring Turkmenistan's laws and practices --
including those relating to human rights -- up to
international standards. Although the president is making
progress in overhauling Turkmenistan's laws, human rights
practices continue to lag behind the country's obligations as
a UN and OSCE member. RFE/RL reporters continue to
experience considerable harassment from security forces.
While the Turkmen have made some improvement in their
treatment of minority religious groups, minority Christian
religious groups continue to experience problems with
registration and harassment. There are numerous cases of
individuals, including students, journalists, and former
government officials, being barred from travel abroad.

ECONOMY AND FINANCE


15. (SBU) The global financial crisis does not appear to have
had an impact in Turkmenistan. The Ashgabat
construction boom and announcements of other capital
investment projects continue apace. President Berdimuhamedov
has stated repeatedly, in many fora, that he wants to develop
an international-standard market economy and to promote
foreign investment. To those ends, Turkmenistan has
eliminated its currency's dual exchange rates and
re-denominated its currency. The president has stated that
some state enterprises will be privatized -- though not in
"strategic" sectors like oil and gas, electricity, textiles,
construction, transportation, and communications. He has
signed a new foreign investment law, which, among other
things, guarantees resident foreign businessmen and their
families one-year, multi-entry visas, and approved changes to
the tax code. The president divided the overworked Ministry
of Economy and Finance into two bodies -- a Ministry of
Economy and Development, and a Ministry of Finance, and he
created a Supreme Audit Chamber with the goal of providing
greater oversight of government spending.


16. (SBU) Even though the president has reshaped his
bureaucracy, put in place the structures that theoretically
should help promote a market economy, and opened Turkmenistan
to cooperation with IFIs, the lack of basic understanding and
bureaucratic capacity remains an enormous impediment to
change. New reforms are being rolled out with inadequate
preparation, understanding of their consequences and
explanation -- and are leading to increased public
dissatisfaction. USAID is working to increase human capacity
in several new government institutions, to prepare the
strategy to support private sector development, and to
support the introduction of International Financial Reporting
Standards in Turkmenistan.

COUNTER-NARCOTICS COOPERATION


17. (SBU) Turkmenistan has serious problems with narcotics
trafficking and addiction, primarily opiates from
Afghanistan. In January 2008, Berdimuhamedov established and
funded the new State Counter-Narcotics Service with DEA-like
responsibilities for both interdiction and demand-reduction
efforts. Still, the effort involves building the new
agency's infrastructure and capacity from the ground up. The
Turkmen side has welcomed U.S. training and equipment.

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CURRAN