ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000066 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E JAMES LIDDLE DEPT PASS TO USAID/AFR/EA ASHLEY MARCUS DOC FOR RTELCHIN TREASURY FOR FRANCOIS BOYE PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN LONDON FOR PETER LORD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV ECPS MA SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update for February 1 - 5, a periodic unclassified review of major political, economic, and commercial events and information from the U.S. Mission to Madagascar and Comoros. POLITICS (Paragraphs 2-6) - French Deputies Support TGV - TGV's Diplomatic Follies in Washington and Addis - HAT and Opposition Meetings Both Fall Short of a Quorum - Monja Calls for National Conference - Pierrot Launches Political Coalition ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 7-9) - EASSy: Madagascar to Connect to East Africa - Lost Gold Spurs Effort to Control Mining Sector - Rosewood Exploitation Moves South END SUMMARY -------------- POLITICS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) TGV COURTS FRENCH DEPUTIES: Despite receiving a fairly tough message by the French executive, HAT President Andry Rajoelina reportedly rallied seven deputies from the French national assembly to his cause. Deputy Jean-Francois Mancel issued a communique that appeared in local Malagasy press on Feb 3 stating: Since the precipitous and beneficial departure of former President Marc Ravalomanana, the High Transition Authority led by Andry Rajoelina has not been able to validate its international status. The international community has not facilitated this task by imposing unbearable constraints, notably by the installation of three political movements of former presidents who, in various ways, did not leave through the front door of Malagasy history. Henceforth, we must advance quickly from realistic bases in the interest of the Malagasy people who will increasingly suffer from the political instability. Given that President Rajoelina has shown that he is able to organize free elections in a reasonable timeframe, it is imperative that the concerned nations, of Africa and of Europe and notably France, promote the democratic process with him, giving the word to the people. ¶3. (SBU) HAT INTERNATIONAL LOBBYING: While Rajoelina advocated in Paris on behalf of his regime, HAT delegations were sent to the U.S., the African Union in Addis Ababa, and the European Union in Brussels. These missions met with both government representatives and non-governmental contacts. Local media reported that a three-person HAT delegation had been received by Ambassador Phil Carter and also erroneously that the delegation had been received by the "Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs." The meetings were portrayed by some in the Malagasy media as a positive step towards recognition, and an opportunity to "clarify" HAT positions on the current political impasse, although most remained much lower-profile than Rajoelina in Paris. One article went so far as to state that French, US and Swiss participants in these meetings had agreed to assist with the elections and provide election observers. None of the delegations have reported any concrete result from their mission. ¶4. (SBU) HAT ELECTION CONFERENCE SUFFERS LOW ATTENDANCE: On Rajoelina's order, the Ombudswoman of the Republic organized a one-day conference on Feb 2 to further discuss the elections preparation. Two of the main civil society organizations on elections (SeFaFi and KMF-CNOE) actively participated, but attendance was otherwise poor, with most opposition politicians avoiding the event. Participants focused on the need to set up an Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI),and proposed new dates (May 19 or 24) for the legislative election, originally planned for Mar 20. On Feb 4-5, Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina (Ravalomanana's short-lived "co-president" in the November transition government) organized a separate conference to discuss crisis resolution and election plans, but it was cut short (to only a half day) once Ravalomanana announced his opposition to the meeting. The FIS military unit controlled by Rajoelina again sought unsuccessfully to arrest Fetison, who appears to also be losing the support of his own movement. All sides are now awaiting the consequences of the impending AU deadline for a return to the Maputo/Addis accords of 2009. ANTANANARI 00000066 002 OF 003 ¶5. (SBU) MONJA CALLS FOR NATIONAL CONFERENCE: Former HAT prime minister, coup leader, and militant Monja Roindefo told the Ambassador Feb 1 that his movement had ousted President Ravalomanana because of his undemocratic behavior and poor governance, without appearing to see the irony in his remarks. Roindefo is personally bitter against Ravalomanana because of administrative hurdles imposed during the 2006 presidential election that resulted in Roindefo's ballots not getting to the polling stations. He also alleged that Ravalomanana had ordered the district and high court to invalidate the results of the legislative election in 2007 in which he was elected as deputy for his hometown in the South. He explained that he is also opposed to TGV's unilateral moves to elections and requested the international community's support for a national conference to create consensus among all the interested parties, rather than merely among the four movements that were involved in the Maputo process. He argued that the Maputo charter would never work because the four movements were all seeking to gain places in the government to use state resources to finance election campaigns. The Ambassador replied that the international community viewed consensus as the only way forward, but wasn't wedded to a particular set-up, and urged Roindefo to work with Ravalomanana, HAT, and other party representatives to achieve consensus. ¶6. (SBU) PIERROT RAJAONARIVELO LAUNCHES "MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRACY": On January 28-29, former Deputy Prime Minister (and Ratsiraka-era Ambassador to the U.S.) Pierrot Rajaonarivelo launched a new political "movement", formally entering the crowded political arena after months on the sidelines. Rajaonarivelo has been laying the groundwork for the Mouvement pour la Democratie de Madagascar (MDM) since at least September 2009, and claims that 117 political parties and civil society organizations from around Madagascar have signed onto his new platform. In the near future, the movement is expected to transform into a political party, and will likely field candidates when elections are finally held; Rajaonarivelo himself is expected to make a presidential bid. Rajaonarivelo appears to support many of the goals of the Rajoelina (TGV) camp, including a focus on rewriting the constitution and launching a "fourth republic", but has remained carefully independent of all four existing movements, and has made clear his intention to stay outside of the transition government. He has called for the holding of a national conference to discuss constitutional reform and proposed the creation of a third chamber of parliament made up of traditional tribal leaders. -------------- ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL -------------- ¶7. (U) EASSY TO CONNECT MADAGASCAR TO EAST AFRICA: Patrick Hamida, General Manager of Madagascar's telecommunication company (TELMA), announced that the East African Submarine System (EASSy) cable will reach Tulear, in the Southeast of the country, between March 8 and ¶10. As TELMA already completed the national backbone to which the EASSY cable will be connected, it is poised to rapidly roll out high speed internet throughout the country. ¶8. (U) CREATION OF A COMMITTEE TO SECURE MINING REVENUE: Following an ill-fated smuggling endeavor in which a 4 kilogram gold bar was found on board an AIR MAD plane returning from Guangzhou, the de facto regime is ramping up efforts to control the mining sector. An inter-ministerial committee composed of officials from six ministries, the port, and the airport will be created to fight corruption and illegal shipment of precious stones. ¶9. (SBU) ROSEWOOD EXPLOITATION MOVES SOUTH: Former North Mananara Deputy Zakahely Boniface told Emboff Feb 1 that there were approximately 600 tons of felled rosewood in and around Mananara national park in eastern Madagascar, south of the main destruction zones of Marojejy and Masoala national parks. He said there were about twenty people involved in cutting down the trees, but now they were afraid to sell the wood because of the rosewood task force and military present in the area. Although that enforcement news at first may seem positive, Boniface went on to assert that the military were taking the wood themselves to the north for sale and export and personally reaping the benefits. He alleged that HAT president Rajoelina was involved and benefitting as well. [Bio note: Boniface was one of eleven independent deputies elected in 2007, despite intimidation by the military, and was imprisoned by Ravalomanana in 2002 and 2008 for, he claims, political reasons. End note.] ANTANANARI 00000066 003 OF 003 MARQUARDT