MADAGASCAR: TGV'S CHOICES: ACCEPT PING PROPOSAL

S E C R E T ANTANANARIVO 000056 ADDIS PASS AF/AS JOHNNIE CARSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL MA SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: TGV'S CHOICES: ACCEPT PING PROPOSAL OR LEAVE OFFICE Classified By: Ambassador Niels Marquardt for reasons 1.5 d and e. ¶1. (S) Summary: Finally exasperated with Rajoelina's incompetence, a group from within his inner circle and the military will give him a stark: accept the Ping/AU "compromise" proposal, or stand aside to allow a consensual council to run Madagascar until elections. Rajoelina returns today from Paris and will be presented with this choice later this week. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Presidential Chief of Staff Zazah Ramandimbarasoa (strictly protect) came to see me discreetly at the residence this morning. He had just returned from Addis where, with Foreign Minister Ny Hasina Andriamanjato, they had met with Ramtane Lamamra of the AU, the French and EU Ambassadors, and UN Under Secretary Lynn Pascoe and UN Political Affairs Director Haile Menkerios. He said they all had the same tough message: agree to consensus as proposed by Jean Ping, or sanctions and isolation will follow. The situation, he said, is very difficult. ¶3. (C) Zazah said he and others in the inner circle are preparing a letter to Jean Ping for TGV to sign when he returns from his private visit to Paris (perhaps later today). The draft lettter essentially accepts the compromise proposal Ping left here on January 22. Zazah explained that some face-saving provisions, particularly involving the departure from the co-presidency of Ravalomanana nominee Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina, would have to be managed, as Fetison and Rajoelina can no longer work together, he said. I told him that Fetison had told me he would not insist on holding his position if leaving would permit a resolution of the crisis, but that the issue needed to be worked in a consensual way involving all the parties -- not forced unilaterally on Ravalomanana and Fetison. He also raised the issue of the consensus prime minister, suggesting -- but not insisting -- that Camille Vital might stay on in place of Eugene Mangalaza. I questioned whether Ravalomanana would accept Vital, who makes no effort to hide his dislike for the former President (whom he blames for ending his military career),but suggested that they continue to work on this as a package. The U.S., I said, will accept whatever compromise the Malagasy themselves can agree upon. ¶4. (S) Zazah then went into a long monologue about Rajoelina's incompetence, lack of decision-making ability, immaturity, instability, and general unfitness for his position. He regretted the rampant lawlessness, non-respect of human rights, and the despoilation of Madagadscar's natural resources for short-term gain under HAT rule. "The track record on governance is terrible", he said. He allowed that he is not optimistic that Rajoelina will accept to sign the draft letter, in which case he and others have developed a Plan B. Plan B is for Rajoelina to "step aside" in favor of a council or directorate composed of respected technocrats from across the political spectrum and perhaps some military officers. The council will then lead the country forward consensually to elections. He said Rajoelina will not want to accept this -- "his ego is too big" -- but the backing of the military for this plan -- which Zazah says he enjoys -- will help TGV realize that he has no choice. I insisted three times that another coup is not what Madagascar needs, and each time Zazah assured me that this will not be a coup, that the transition will amount to a consensual act, albeit one about which Rajoelina will have no choice. I asked who else is involved and he offered me an impressive list of TGV insiders and respected Generals who he said are behind Plan ¶B. Military support is the key, he said. ¶5. (C) We then discussed ongoing efforts to create the consensus necessary for implementing the Ping proposal. I again deplored the arrest warrant against Co-President Fetison and explained my effort over the weekend to broker a meeting between Fetison and Camille Vital (which never took place). Zazah said Vital is among those on board with his plan and that he expects to be present later today when Fetison and Vital do finally meet. (He then called Vital in my presence to confirm this meeting.) I suggested that all the movements, including the moderates in the HAT, accept the invitation Fetison has sent out to the entire spectrum of political opinion and civil society for an "inclusive meeting" this Thursday and Friday at the Carlton Hotel. I said that the HAT has proven incapable of rallying any consensus, but could contribute to one by responding positively to the Fetison initiative. Zazah seemed to agree and said he would discuss this later today with Vital and Fetison. He agreed that time was extremely short before the Ping deadline expires and that there is no time to wait for other initiatives if sanctions and isolation are to be avoided. ¶6. (C) Regarding the threat of sanctions, I asked Zazah whether he thought that TGV was taking this seriously. Zazah said that the Paris visit, during which TGV spoke directly to Elysee Sec-Gen Claude Gueant, finally had removed the last doubt and hope from TGV's mind on this issue. Everyone, Zazah said, is now saying exactly the same thing, and there is no alternative left to accepting the Ping proposal (or Plan B). He said the French must now be thinking beyond TGV, looking for an acceptable alternative to come to power through elections. "That's how they are -- not loyal, and not sentimental," he opined. Zazah said he discounts rumors that Total is behind TGV: "they too are looking for alternatives." He mentioned individual French politicians, including the French Senator for the Indian Ocean, as people who have been falsely assuring TGV that he can stand pat, but said that their promises are no longer credible to TGV. Zazah said he would also "talk to the French", but noted that Ambassador Chataigner is still in Paris. He said their charge d'affaires here is too closely linked to TGV Advisor (and dual national) Patrick Leloup; Leloup is a petty crook, Zazah said (and we agree),who has been giving TGV bad advice while going around shaking down businesses and looting the country. He therefore will not be speaking to the French charge. ¶7. (S) Comment: This move toward a "council" is not entirely a surprise, although its origin so deep within TGV's inner circle -- rather than within the military -- was not expected. At the same time, the gap between talk and action remains wide in Madagascar, and may remain so in this case too. For our parts, we will continue to push all parties together toward consensus as the AU deadline approaches. End Comment. MARQUARDT