DIYARBAKIR SEES LITTLE HOPE FOR DEMOCRATIC OPENING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000071

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2020
TAGS: PGOV PHUM OSCE PREL TU
SUBJECT: DIYARBAKIR SEES LITTLE HOPE FOR DEMOCRATIC OPENING

REF: A. 09 ADANA 80

B. 09 ADANA 82

Classified By: Adana Principal Officer Daria Darnell for reasons 1.4(b,
d)

This is a Consulate Adana cable.


1. (C) Summary: Recent arrests of Kurdish politicians and
community leaders have created a climate of tension among
Kurds in Diyarbakir. Kurdish businesspeople and NGO
employees worry that they too could be arrested regardless of
their political beliefs and lack of ties to the PKK.
Contacts told us they blame the AKP for both the recent
arrests and for the failure of the Democratic Opening. One
contact told us he believed the government could still
salvage the opening, but others are convinced that only early
elections offer a solution to the crisis. End summary.

Recent Arrests Cause Kurds to Lose Trust in AKP
-------------- --


2. (C) As reported in refs A and B, the recent arrests of
Kurdish leaders, especially elected mayors, has led even
moderate Kurds to worry about their futures. Several
contacts, including president of the Chamber of Commerce and
Industry Galip Ensarioglu, GUNSIAD president Ismail
Bedirhanoglu, and NGO director Nurcan Baysal, told us the
sight of their elected officials in handcuffs shocked them
and made them wonder if they could be arrested (Note: all
three have been active in politics to varying degrees and
speak out on Kurdish issues. End note.). In several meetings
contacts told us they were sure the Government of Turkey (by
which they meant the AKP) had approved the arrests. One
human rights attorney told us, "The police would never have
made the arrests without the knowledge of the Justice
Minister and the Interior Minister." The distrust extends to
Kurdish AKP members, described by Diyarbakir mayor Osman
Baydemir as traitors to the Kurdish people who were working
against the Kurdish cause. The December 11 closure of the
DTP was also seen as a betrayal of the AKP's claims to
support the Democratic Opening. The governor of Diyarbakir
defended the arrests and the party closure, pointing out they
were carried out in accordance with Turkish law by
independent judicial officials.

What the AKP Could Have Done Differently
--------------


3. (C) Interlocutors criticized the AKP's overall handling of
the opening. Bedirhanoglu and Ensarioglu said the AKP should
have quickly announced concrete steps toward democratization
-- expanded language rights, for example, or officially
changing Turkish names of towns to Kurdish names -- when PM
Erdogan began discussing the opening in summer 2009. The
lack of details from the government led them to question the
AKP's sincerity. Our interlocutors also criticized the AKP's
unwillingness to discuss the opening with the PKK. Two
interlocutors -- Bedirhanoglu and attorney Meral Danis --
said the AKP "could have talked secretly with the PKK."
Danis along with Baysal said the AKP could not expect the
Kurdish people to ignore the PKK when "our children and
brothers are still in the mountains."

What the Kurds Could Have Done Differently
--------------


4. (C) Some of our contacts conceded the DTP and the Kurds
could have acted differently as well. They acknowledged the
DTP's continued links to the PKK and insistence on the
primacy of Ocalan - offering as evidence PKK members'
attendance at the Democratic Society Congress in June 2009 -
placed the government in a difficult position. The killing
of seven soldiers in Tokat in December by an undisciplined
PKK unit was also acknowledged as a mistake that could have
triggered the arrests (Note: In two separate meetings
contacts told us many Kurds persist in believing the state
was behind the killings in Tokat, despite PKK claims of
responsibility.) At the same time Bedirhanoglu said the

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Kurds need a viable alternative to former DTP and new BDP,
but such an alternative does not exist. HAKPAR (a minor
Kurdish political party) chair Bayram Bozyel presented his
party to us as an alternative to the BDP and unsupportive of
the PKK. He also told us his party favors federalism,
although he was unable to define what
a federalist system would look like. Other contacts were
dismissive of HAKPAR's chances of success, both because of
its limited support from the Kurdish people and because few
Kurds want a federalist system.


5. (C) Some of our interlocutors did not suggest any
different steps Kurds or the DTP could have taken. When
asked what both the AKP and the DTP could have done
differently since the start of the discussions on the
Democratic Opening, Mayor Baydemir was quick to list what he
considered to be the AKP's mistakes (such as the failure to
propose concrete changes in laws) but did not have any
suggestions for a different Kurdish approach. He said he had
told the people of Diyarbakir they should "be like Gandhi"
and not engage in violent protests.

What's Next for the Democratic Opening?
--------------


6. (C) Our contacts were almost uniformly pessimistic about
the future of the Democratic Opening, expressing doubt that
the AKP could overcome the Kurds' distrust or convince the
opposition parties to support the opening. Bedirhanoglu was
an exception, saying he believed the AKP would make six to
eight concrete proposals in January they could enact in the
short-term, such as changing the way the cases of children
who throw stones during demonstrations are handled, expanding
language rights and return the names of villages, and that
could get the opening back on track. Most of our
interlocutors, however, had opinions closer to that of
attorney Mesut Bektas, who said he believed the AKP should
call early elections because "they are finished, and nothing
will change until they are gone." When asked what type of
government would likely be elected, he told us, "I don't care
- I just want this one gone." Contacts also expressed
concern about radicalization of young Kurds and more recruits
for the PKK.


7. (C) Comment: It is clear that - no matter the legal
justifications for either the DTP closure or the recent
arrests of political leaders - most Kurds are deeply
distrustful of the GOT's intentions. It is also clear many
Kurds are unwilling to break completely from the PKK and
Ocalan and to denounce violence publicly. AKP officials in
recent days have said they intend to propose in the
Parliament this week a concrete set of steps to advance the
Democratic Opening. Without such a proposal, and absent a
strong denunciation of the PKK's terror tactics from a
Kurdish leader, the gulf between the GOT and Kurds seems
likely to widen.
Jeffrey

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