TURKEY PLANS QUADRILATERAL MEETING ON BOSNIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000047 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU BK SUBJECT: TURKEY PLANS QUADRILATERAL MEETING ON BOSNIA REF: A. ANKARA 1717 ¶B. ANKARA 1688 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Following its spate of meetings with Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia in December, the MFA is planning a new quadrilateral structure that would parallel the Butmir framework for dialogue on Bosnia. At least according to their embassies here, the other participants are open to the idea, but do not feel any urgency to merge the two sets of existing trilateral meetings. This plan to merge the meetings is part of the MFA's "roadmap," an alternative to Butmir which would increase Turkey's profile in Bosnian stabilization efforts. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) MFA Croatia desk officer Basar Basol told us December 15 the MFA is planning to merge two trilateral meetings (Turkey/Bosnia/Serbia and Turkey/Bosnia/Croatia) into a quadrilateral meeting in early 2010. In a separate December 21 meeting, Guclu Kalafat, the MFA's Bosnia and Serbia desk officer, described the quadrilateral as part of a "roadmap" designed by FM Davutoglu that the GOT hoped would lead to summit-level dialogues. MFA Deputy Director General Murat Karagoz implied the same while speaking at a roundtable meeting on Bosnia sponsored by the Turkish Economic Policy Research Foundation (TEPAV) December 22. ¶3. (C) Karagoz said Butmir, which he described as an exclusively U.S. and EU initiative, "turned out to be a failure" and its "take it or leave it" approach would only exacerbate the tense political situation in Bosnia. He stressed Turkey's unique ability to help stabilize Bosnia. Kalafat conceded Republika Srpska is wary of Turkey's playing such a large role in Bosnia, fearing Turkey would show favor to the Muslim Bosniaks. ¶4. (C) Bosnian Embassy First Secretary Miljana Zdrale told us December 21 the MFA has been floating the idea of merging the two trilateral meetings. She expressed ambivalence since Bosnia was already engaged in both trilaterals. Serbian Embassy Counsellor Zeljko Gajic also confirmed December 16 discussions on the formation of a quadrilateral. He said Serbia is open to this Turkish initiative as long as Serbia's place at the table is assured. Croatian Embassy Second Secretary Mladen Glavina told us December 16 Croatia is open to the idea of the quadrilateral but is skeptical it will be effective. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: While Turkey enjoys credibility with some Bosnians and might usefully mediate their more constructive participation in the multilateral reconciliation effort, the Turkish quadrilateral plan's challenge to Butmir is unwelcome. We will continue to press the MFA to abandon it. SILLIMAN "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"