FIVE OR SEVEN YEARS FOR PRESIDENT GUL'S TERM?: A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000286

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2020
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: FIVE OR SEVEN YEARS FOR PRESIDENT GUL'S TERM?: A
PRIMER

REF: ANKARA 264

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary. Further examination regarding the timeline of
the election of President Gul, the wording of the
parliamentary decision after his election, and the
constitutional amendment on direct presidential elections
reveals no easy solution to the question of how long his term
should be. Given the incompetent drafting of the lawmakers
in 2007, political factors are likely to outweigh the law.
Pollsters, journalists and AKP insiders disagree on how the
Prime Minister views the issue or is likely to act. End
summary.

2007 Election Timeline
--------------


2. (U) The following timeline highlights the sequence of
events leading up to both President Gul's election and the
passage of the constitutional amendment on the president's
direct election for a 5-year term:

-- April 27, 2007: President Ahmet Necdet Sezer's term
ended, and parliament held the first round of elections for
the nominees. Abdullah Gul received 357 votes in the first
round, but was not elected because 367 were required to win
the election.

-- April 27, 2007: The CHP applied to the Constitutional
Court, saying that in order to hold the election, there
should also have to be a quorum of 367 voters present. The
normal quorum under parliamentary procedures is one-third of
the seats, or 184 members present.

-- 11:17 p.m. on April 27, 2007: The Turkish General Chief
of Staff posted the infamous "e-memorandum" on its website,
saying that anti-secular activities had increased during the
election period and that the TGS would not refrain from
exercising its legal authority. (Note: Yasar Buyukanit was
the Chief of Staff at the time. End note.)

-- May 1, 2007: The Constitutional Court met and decided the
CHP petition was correct and the quorum should be set at 367.
Consequently, the court also canceled the first round of the
election.

-- May 11, 2007: The parliament passed a constitutional
amendment saying the president would be directly elected for
a 5-year term.

-- May 25, 2007: President Sezer vetoed the constitutional
amendment.

-- May 31, 2007: Parliament overrode the veto with 370 votes.

-- June 15, 2007: President Sezer submitted the amendment to
a general referendum.

-- July 22, 2007: The AKP called early elections, won with
46.66% of the vote.

-- August 20, 2007: Parliament begins the presidential
election voting again. Gul is not elected in the first round.

-- August 24, 2007: Parliament holds the second round of
voting. Gul does not win.

-- August 28, 2007: Parliament holds the third round of
voting. Following the election, the parliament issued the
following decision (No. 898): "At the Turkish Grand National
Assembly General Assembly in its sixth session on August 28,
2007, Kayseri Deputy Abdullah Gul was elected president of
the republic with 339 votes."

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-- October 21, 2007: Constitutional amendment on the
president being directly elected to a 5-year term passes.

-- November 6, 2007: The AKP submits a draft law to the
parliament regulating the methods and priciples for election
of the president under the new constitutional amendment.
This draft is still pending debate and passage.

No Consensus Emerging
--------------


3. (C) Sources inside the AKP and analysts who follow it also
do not agree on the issue. On January 29, AKP Vice Chairman
for Election Affairs Haluk Ipek revealed he thought Gul's
term would end in 2012. "The coming three years will be very
busy ones for elections," he said. "In 2011, we have general
elections, in 2012 we have presidential elections, and in
2013 we will have local elections." However, on February 18
AKP Deputy Secretary General Ismail Safi told us that inside
the party there was no broad agreement on the issue. Also,
he said, he did not believe Erdogan had made his position
clear yet, but he did think that Erdogan himself would try to
run for President (Note: This is a widespread assumption.
End Note). On February 19 Hurriyet Deputy Ankara Bureau
Chief Metehan Demir, who often travels with Erdogan, insisted
to us that the issue of five-versus-seven years for Gul is a
non-issue. What counts, he said, is what Erdogan thinks, and
the PM has already indicated that it's five.


4. (C) Several contacts have told us that Erdogan wants Gul's
term to end in 2012, but his public statements have been more
nuanced. He has stated that the Supreme Election Board will
make the ultimate decision -- which is viewed as his obvious
disinclination to join those in AKP who believe Gul should
serve for seven years. Several press commentaries suggest
this reveals a "rift" in the party, but the divisions between
Erdogan and Gul are hardly a new phenomenon, and the timing
of the next presidential election would certainly be an issue
that has only one winner. Still, the rivalry of the two
founding AKP leaders may have racheted upward, leading one
promiment pollster to tell us that there are now "rough winds
blowing between them," that ministers are now openly
identified as siding with one or the other, and that Erdogan
is using the timing of the Presidential election as his main
leverage. The pollster suggested that the issue may hinge on
whether AKP does well in the next general elections, now set
for spring 2011.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The question of the term of Turkey's sitting president
has been on the shelf since 2007, but is drawing renewed and
energetic attention now from both politicians and academics.
The opposition will take advantage of the uncertainty around
the issue. Given the incompetence of the Turkish lawmakers,
who should have spelled out the impact of their changes on
the sitting president -- or conversely, stipulated that he
was grandfathered -- there are now compelling legal arguments
on both sides. In the end, political factors are likely to
trump law. In the meantime, as Hasan Tanla of Estima polling
company told the Ambassador last week, the current debate
provides an easy distraction from the country's ongoing
economic woes.
Jeffrey

"Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"