MFA UPDATE ON TURKEY-ARMENIA PROTOCOLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000028 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AM AJ TU SUBJECT: MFA UPDATE ON TURKEY-ARMENIA PROTOCOLS REF: A. 09 ANKARA 1569 ¶B. 09 YEREVAN 877 Classified By: A/POL Counselor Jeremiah Howard for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA desk officer for the Caucasus and Middle Asia Selin Ozaydin characterized Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Mammadyarov's December 2009 visit to Ankara as symbolic and positive, and said more bilaterals on energy are planned for 2010. She said Turkey will decide for itself how much progress is enough on Nagorno-Karabakh before moving forward with ratification of the Turkey-Armenia protocols, but needs Turkish public opinion to support them, and so, by extension, also needs positive Azerbaijani public opinion. The GOT is following comments from Yerevan on the possibility of rescinding Armenia's protocols signature, which, she claimed, weaken Turkish supporters of ratification and encourage the opposition. She said, while Ankara is not working under any specific timeframe for ratification, the GOT players involved have April 24 in the back of their minds, and know that, if progress in not made before this date, the consequences will be negative for all sides. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Ozaydin told us Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Mammadyarov's visit to Ankara had symbolic value because it was one of his few "official" visits -- most of his other visits to Turkey have been "working" visits. The fact that he chose to make a rare official visit at this time indicates the relationship between Azerbaijan and Turkey is back on track and positive. Nagorno-Karabakh was the primary issue of discussion. Mammadyarov told his GOT interlocutors that Azerbaijan was happy with the most recent Minsk Group meeting in Munich. According to Ozaydin, he said Azerbaijan is ready to accept the Minsk Group proposals and move forward, as soon as Armenia is. Ozaydin said a number of bilaterals are planned between Turkey and Azerbaijan for the first half of 2010; these will likely focus on energy. ¶3. (C) Moving to a discussion of the Turkey-Armenia protocols, Ozaydin said Turkey will make its own decision on what constitutes sufficient progress between Azerbaijan and Armenia. According to her, Ankara does not need an official "OK" from Azerbaijan before proceeding with the ratification process, but Turkish parliamentarians have to respond to domestic public opinion, which at this time is still not ready to support ratification. Ozaydin said she does not believe the GoT needs a full withdrawal by Armenian forces, or a full implementation of Minsk Group agreements. Positive Azerbaijani public opinion and concrete signs from Armenia that it is ready and willing to work positively with Azerbaijan could be very helpful in creating a more supportive domestic atmosphere and giving Turkish parliamentarians political cover to justify a "yes" vote. ¶4. (C) Ozaydin mentioned both the MFA and parliament are aware of, and following, the "threats" from Yerevan that Armenia is considering rescinding its signing of the protocols. She thought this might be a tactic from Yerevan to push Turkey towards ratification, but warned it could backfire. Such threats are only undermining protocols supporters in Turkey. Ozaydin said she has already heard opponents of the protocols playing on the possibility of Yerevan rescinding its signature, questioning why, if Armenia is contemplating taking a step back, Turkey is still trying to move forward. ¶5. (C) The MFA does not see a specific timeframe for normalization, and Ozaydin does not think parliament or the prime ministry are focusing on a particular month. Rather, people are following Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations and hoping for progress and positive signs that will allow for forward movement on ratification. However, Ozaydin said, although it is not openly discussed, everyone "has April on their minds." She said parliamentarians and the MFA know that, if ratification has not occurred by April 24, the U.S. Congress may move forward on an Armenian genocide resolution. She said the MFA worries that if Congress passes a resolution or the White House issues a statement supportive of the genocide theory, the government will find it very hard or impossible to ratify the protocols and continue on the normalization path. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Prime Minister Erdogan is confronting a tumultuous domestic situation, declining poll numbers and opposition calls for early elections. Absent tangible progress on Nagorno-Karabakh, he is unlikely to risk an effort to advance the protocols over the very near term. SILLIMAN "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"