AKP'S DEFLATED DREAMS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000237

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2020
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: AKP'S DEFLATED DREAMS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

REF: ANKARA 142

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The AKP seems have backed way from any
immediate moves on constitutional reform. Its potential
joint effort with MHP on calling for a referendum has
collapsed. More AKP members also caution against holding a
referendum prior to the general election, noting that the
effort could backfire and weaken AKP's electoral support. PM
Erdogan has openly questioned whether the party has the
organizational discipline to produce enough votes in
Parliament for a referendum. As a longer term goal, however,
a new constitution remains a priority for AKP and is likely
to be a key feature in their campaign efforts. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Recent events have revealed more cracks in the veneer
of AKP unity regarding constitutional reform. On January 26,
AKP Vice Chairman Huseyin Celik indicated to us that because
support within the party for constitutional reform is
uncertain, AKP would lobby other parties, particularly the
Nationalist Action Party (MHP),about a possible shared
constitutional reform agenda (REFTEL). On January 28, Devlet
Bahceli, the MHP's President, announced that the MHP was
willing to meet with the AKP to see if they shared any goals
for reform, and to secure enough votes to pass amendments
without having to resort to a referendum. However, that plan
seemed to dissolve when a fracas erupted in parliament after
a sharp exchange of words MHP deputy Osman Durmus (a former
health minister) and AKP Health Minister Recep Akdag. Soon
afterward, Bahceli discounted any prospect of MHP aligning
itself with AKP's constitutional reform plans.


3. (SBU) Prime Minister Erdogan called an extraordinary
meeting of AKP deputies on Monday, February 8. The
gathering, we were told, was intended to allow AKP members to
engage in an "open airing of ideas" with no set agenda.
However, sources inside the meeting indicated later that the
primary issue for discussion was constitutional reform. The
low turnout at the meeting -- only 50 of AKP's 337 deputies
attended -- led Erdogan to question his ability to unify the
party behind such reforms. While some MPs may be traveling
or running urgent errands, he said, their absence made the
question of proposing a small constitutional reform package
an impossibility. "If we are not fully sure about getting
330 votes we will not bring up the issue of a constitutional
amendment," he concluded. (Note: There are 336 voting members
of the AKP, and the minimum threshold for forcing a
constitutional amendment to a public referendum is 330 votes
in favor. The balloting is secret. Parliament is not in
session on Mondays, which would have contributed to a low
attendance rate in Erdogan's meeting February 8. End Note)


4. (SBU) Enroute to India earlier this week, President Gul
commented to reporters that parliament had missed a key
opportunity to prepare a new constitution. He noted that
"political parties engaged in political struggle should not
miss such opportunities."


5. (C) During the AKP meeting February 8, Constitutional
Committee Chairman Ahmet Iyimaya proposed that any vote on a
constitutional amendment -- usually a secret ballot -- should
be an open vote, but his proposal did not gain traction. The
same sources indicated that some deputies suggested the
primary goal of constitutional reform should be reforming the
"Supreme Judiciary", that is, the four highest courts: The
Constitutional Court, the Court of Accounts (Sayistay),the
Council of State (Danistay),and the Court of Appeals.
(Note: AKP members have aired informal suggestions over the
past year to either create a new court to handle half of the
Constitutional Court's duties, or to increase its staff while
simultaneously transferring the duty of appointing high court
officials from the presidency to parliament. Such proposals
are vehemently opposed by the opposition, which warns against
allowing AKP to stack the courts. End note.) Other deputies

ANKARA 00000237 002 OF 002


urged that the constitution be amended primarily to prevent
the closure of political parties.


6. (C) During a February 8 discussion with us, AKP Deputy and
PM Advisor Saban Disli said AKP remains frustrated at the
opposition's ability to draw out debate on minor legislative
issues and, more importantly, to block any forward movement
on constitutional reform. Disli said AKP is convinced that
only a new constitution can address the core issues now
facing modern Turkey, but that the opposition refuses to
engage at any level on moving forward. Disli said AKP
initially had hoped to seek a referendum this year on the
constitutional issue but now questions not only whether it
has the necessary votes (REFTEL) but also whether such a
referendum could backfire and jeopardize AKP's electoral
strength in the next general election.


7. (C) COMMENT: After an initial flurry of activity that
seemed intent on launching a constitutional referendum, the
AKP seems to have reassessed its position as too vulnerable
for such a bold move in the near term. Still, AKP appears
resolute on making a new constitution a centerpiece of its
campaign in the election. Several AKP officials have told us
that the party is conducting an intense internal debate on
what kind of reforms to propose. Its extensive public
polling efforts, a monthly exercise, are no doubt also
probing the public on these questions.
Jeffrey

"Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"