Iranians Seek Global Support Not Nuclear Pressure

UNCLAS ANKARA 000189 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958:N/A TAGS: CVIS PREL PINS PGOV PHUM SOCI SCUL TU IR SUBJECT: Iranians Seek Global Support Not Nuclear Pressure ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the wake of President Obama's State of the Union Address on January 27, 2010, CONOFFs surveyed Iranian non-immigrant visa (NIV) and immigrant visa (IV) applicants to assess their reaction to US pressure regarding Iran's nuclear program. Although applicants voiced strong support for the opposition movement and distrust of the regime, they also expressed strong support for Iran's nuclear rights. Applicants stated that the US and international community should focus their efforts at supporting the Iranian people in their efforts to change the government rather than focusing on halting Iranians nuclear program. Many applicants stressed that coercive action to counter Iran's nuclear program would only harm the opposition which is growing stronger daily, while bolstering support for the regime. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Applicants told CONOFFs they heard about President Obama's State of the Union remarks concerning Iran through Voice of America and other international news sources. One applicant noted that 90% of Iranians have access to international satellite broadcasts which include CNN and Fox news. In light of President Obama's message to Iran about the consequences Iran would face if it fails to meet international demands over its nuclear program, most applicants expressed that, although they distrust their government and support the opposition, their country has a right to pursue nuclear technology. A textile factory owner from Karaj told CONOFF that despite broad opposition to the government, Iranians do not like others telling them what their country is permitted to do. A Baha'i medical supply store owner, although greatly opposed to the regime, indicated that it was important for Iran to continue its nuclear program as it had vast benefits for Iranians, using the medical field as an example. A Tehrani international lawyer emphasized that the majority of Iranians support the nuclear program but not its military use. He added that as an international lawyer he agrees that Iran must comply with international law in its nuclear pursuits. Only an IV couple, retired Ministry of Welfare and Social Security (MWSS) employees, voiced some skepticism as they did not see any use for a nuclear energy program considering Iran's vast oil and gas reserves. ¶3. (SBU) With one exception, applicants said that although they hold high hopes for future change, the political-security situation in Tehran was "very bad." Most of our applicants voiced strong support for the opposition and indicated that it held broad support among the majority of Iranians. They blamed the government's intensified crackdown by means of arrests, torture, and execution as contributing to the deteriorating situation. Some applicants chose not to answer CONOFFs questions as they were afraid to speak. The Baha'i applicant, after asking if it was safe to talk, noted the government has increased its surveillance and harassment of religious minorities in Iran, now including Iran's Sunni community. The Iranian MWSS retirees explained the depth of unhappiness throughout Iranian society is demonstrated by the tens of millions of Iranians who have chosen to emigrate from Iran since the revolution. All their siblings now live in the US or France. They added that if change comes to Iran for the better, Iranians would likely return to Iran due to their sense of nationalism. An Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) employee said the housing and stock markets are so stagnant that many are converting their money into gold. Only one unemployed, uneducated Tehrani youth immigrating to the US scornfully said the opposition was a failure and said that the security situation in Tehran was much better than Ankara. ¶4. (SBU) Many expect the coming February 11 2010 demonstrations to be significant with broad support among the population. Applicants note that the protests may be student led, but Iranians of all types will participate. The MWSS retirees explained that the students, six million strong, have been vigorously campaigning especially among Iranian workers. They added that with a worsening economy, less and less people are able to lead comfortable lives in Iran leading to increased opposition support. No applicant could give a prediction about when or how they believe the opposition would succeed but most appeared optimistic that the government would eventually be forced to compromise and implement democratic reforms. ¶5. (SBU) Applicants expressed various views on how the US and the international community should react towards Iran's internal developments. Some said that the US should not make any agreements with the government that could lend it legitimacy. Others feared any coercion against the regime, especially military, would only serve to nationalize the people in support of the regime and destroy all opposition. A young Tehrani woman said she did not think the opposition could survive unless there was increased international support in the face of the regime's heavy handed crackdown. She emphasized that support must be clearly international and from a broad array of countries in order to prevent the government from attributing the opposition to foreign interference. ¶6. (SBU) A young neurosurgeon going on a research assistantship voiced grief for the Iranian people who have lost two generations to tyranny. He added that the U.S. has not differentiated between the Iranian people who love America and the government. He added that while Iranians are overall a moderate people, they face much greater hardships in obtaining U.S. visas than applicants from Arab countries such as Egypt or Saudi Arabia which contain problems of fanaticism hostile to the U.S. within their populations. He added that he has not seen one instance of an Iranian involvement in terrorism against the American people. He said despite this Iranians continue their love of America and the American people. ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: Although most applicants still indicate reluctance to actively participate in Iran's opposition movement, CONOFFs continue to see overwhelming and broad popular support for it. Admittedly, Iranian applicants in Turkey are a self-selected contact base who tend to reflect the views of Iran's upper and middle classes: professionals, typically university-educated, and predisposed to western travel. Many of our applicants are either financially stable and have learned to tolerate the regime (by benefitting financially from regime connections, or by avoiding politics altogether),or in the case of those immigrating or studying in the U.S., have made a choice to leave the country rather than confront the regime. That said, as the Iranian economy continues to falter and the regime's tactics continue to harden, fewer and fewer Iranians will have the same choices these applicants do. ¶8. (SBU) Comment, continued: Our Iranian applicants were very clear that international concerns over Iran's nuclear program would be better served by supporting the opposition movement's desire for a reformed, more transparent, more accountable political system in Iran rather than focusing efforts on how to deal with the current regime. Many applicants surmised that reform in Iran's political system would lead to greater transparency in Iran's nuclear program which could assuage international fears. END COMMENT. JEFFREY