PARLIAMENTARY FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE CHAIR ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000185 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 TAGS: PREL PARM PTER EFIN KTFN PINR ETTC IS IR TU SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE CHAIR ON ISRAEL, IRAN AND ARMENIA REF: ANKARA 87 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Jeffrey; Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During a February 2 conversation with parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Murat Mercan, the Ambassador elicited the senior governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) MP's perspectives on Israel, Iran and the recent Armenian Constitutional Court ruling. Mercan argued regional trends are running against Israel and, to avert disaster, it should seek coexistence, rather than conflict, with the Arabs. He said Turkey's memory that faulty intelligence had provided the justification for the Iraq War undermined the credibility of the USG case for an Iranian nuclear weapons development program. He objected to the Armenian Constitutional Court ruling on the Armenia Protocols because it reaffirmed the characterization of the events of 1915 as genocide, which would fuel "the Diaspora's" worldwide campaign against Turkey. Though Mercan was speaking conceptually, he was thinking in practical political terms, as a high-profile committee leader attentive to an increasingly restive electorate and to a parliamentary group nervous about its future in government. END SUMMARY. -------------- "Israel Must Change its Spots" -------------- ¶3. (C) Mercan based some of his Israel commentary on his early January experience as leader of the group of five Turkish MPs who accompanied the Viva Palestina truck convoy that crossed from Egypt to deliver aid to Gaza. He argued that, regardless of its armed forces' strength, no matter how advanced its military technology, "the clock is ticking against Israel." He asserted four indications of an adverse future for Israel: -- Israel was essentially defeated in its last two wars, by Hezbollah in the south Lebanon conflict and by HAMAS during the Cast Lead operation in Gaza a year ago. Mercan maintained Israel's retreat from southern Lebanon may have been more obvious, but, when the Israeli army found it could not operate in the streets of Gaza, it withdrew from there, too. Mercan implied both conflicts demonstrated the fallacy of the Israeli Defense Forces' invincibility. -- "Demography is working against Israel." Israel's Arab citizens, Mercan said, will outnumber its Jews by 2020, perhaps sooner. -- In a segue from the previous point, Mercan asserted rising mutual hatred between Jews and Israeli Arabs. Even outwardly moderate Israeli Arabs, he said, when speaking candidly, readily express their animosity towards Jews. -- The moderate middle is eroding. Mercan asserted the rise of extremism among Palestinians and Israeli Jews. He said HAMAS is gaining ground in the West Bank and had become an unavoidable political reality: "If there were an election tomorrow, HAMAS would win." For this reason, he had urged Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Director General (P-equivalent) Yossi Gal, who visited Ankara January 19, to open up some line of communications with HAMAS. ¶4. (C) Speaking as a "friend of Israel," Mercan continued, its prospects are not bright. On its current policy trajectory, he said, Israel would eventually either have to eliminate or expell the Arab population in its midst. "Israel must change its spots," redirect its strategy of conflict with the Arabs towards one of coexistence. Long-term stability in the region, of which Turkey is an integral part, depends on that redirection. Only the U.S., he concluded, enjoyed sufficient trust and credibility with Israel to persuade a change in course. ¶5. (C) Mercan took the opportunity to raise the GoT's abiding interest in a mediation role in Israeli-Syrian proximity talks. He claimed Damascus would not participate in a French-mediated effort that did not include Turkey. "If the Israelis insist," he said, "we can partner with the French." He repeated the familiar GoT argument that its opening to Damascus is pulling Syria out of Iran's orbit. Similarly, he argued, Turkey's outreach to HAMAS would eventually displace Tehran's influence and make that organization more tractable. They are Sunnis, he said, their alliance with Shia Iran is tactical only; it won't last. -------------- On Iran: "Once Bitten, Twice Shy" -------------- ¶6. (C) Mercan said the credibility of the USG's contention that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons had been undermined in the minds of many Turks by memory of the faulty American intelligence assessment that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. That error, he alleged, had been used to justify a seven-year-long war in our neighborhood. We are "once bitten, twice shy." The Ambassador countered that everyone in the Middle East, except the Turkish leadership, is convinced the Iranians are pursuing nuclear weapons. Even if the Iranians refrain from using their nuclear weapons, he added, regional countries will not refrain from acquiring their own arsenals. The result will be an arms race that will consume precious government resources and destabilize the region for decades. -------------- Court Ruling Feeds the Diaspora Beast -------------- ¶7. (C) Mercan claimed the recent Armenian Constitutional Court ruling on the Armenia Protocols did not trouble him because of its implied reaffirmation of Armenian claims to Turkish territory. He argued the currently quiescent Syrian claim to Turkey's Hatay province had not inhibited rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus. Turkey's border with Armenia is "de facto." Yerevan has no power to change it. He objected to the ruling because it reaffirmed the characterization of the events of 1915 as genocide, which would fuel "the Diaspora's" worldwide campaign against Turkey. Their efforts have an impact on legislatures everywhere, he said, including the U.S. Congress. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Though Mercan was speaking conceptually, he was thinking in practical political terms. Worried by falling poll numbers and increasing rumours of early elections, the AKP is less inclined to lead on foreign policy issues than pander to the prejudices and anxieties of the Turkish electorate. Criticisms of Israel and skepticism that Iran's nuclear ambitions constitute a regional threat are likely to be staples of GoT foreign policy statements for the next few months. Jeffrey "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"