JORDANIAN PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES ALREADY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000351

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA MGREGONIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES ALREADY
JOCKEYING FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d)


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. With GOJ assurances that parliamentary
elections will take place in the final quarter of 2010,
prospective candidates have already started planning
campaigns to enter the next legislature, despite current
ambiguity about the content of the new electoral law. In
separate meetings, two likely candidates expressed contempt
for the extremely unpopular parliament dismissed in 2009,
although both doubted that the new electoral law would bring
procedural changes to improve the membership and function of
this legislative body. In addition, the candidates discussed
a series of topics, including the role of regional loyalties
among Palestinian-origin Jordanian voters and the costs of
running a campaign in Jordan. End Summary.

"Tribal" Politics...Palestinian Style
--------------


2. (S/NF) On January 21, PolOff and EconOff met with Wa'el
al-Jaabari, a wealthy West Amman businessman of Palestinian
descent who has never served in parliament, but is
considering running in the upcoming elections. Al-Jaabari,
along with virtually all contacts willing to discuss the
upcoming elections, assumed that one of the most heavily
criticized aspects of the current Jordanian electoral law,
the one man-one vote system with multiple candidates, will
remain virtually unchanged.

(NOTE: "One man-one vote" in a Jordanian context refers to a
controversial provision under which each voter casts a vote
for a single candidate within a district that elects multiple
MPs from a longer list of candidates. Many analysts argue
that this system magnifies family and tribal influence by:

--pressuring voters to give their one vote to someone
they know personally who can be petitioned for services or
favors

-- undermining political party development by encouraging
candidates to base campaigns around their personal
reputations, rather than a stated policy platform, and

-- diluting citizens' voting power by only allowing them
to vote for a small percentage of the total people who will
represent their district. END NOTE.)


3. (S/NF) Forecasting his chances for victory under the
current system, al-Jaabari has concluded that support from
families originating from Hebron, his ancestral home, could
potentially carry him to victory. He indicated that
Jordanians of Palestinian descent tend to vote by these
historical regional groupings, which often play a critical
role in the races for seats traditionally held by Jordanians
of Palestinian descent.


4. (S/NF) Al-Jaabari's frank comments indicate that regional
background seems to play a similar role with
Palestinian-origin electorates as the tribal affiliations do
with East Bankers. Al-Jaabari, whose grandfather was an
influential mayor of Hebron from 1948 to 1976 and was very
close to late King Hussein, indicated that he would face two
main hurdles in his bid for a seat in the new parliament:
first, uniting his own large and sometimes fractious family
behind his candidacy; and second, convincing the other
prominent Hebron families not to field a candidate of their
own. Indeed, he stated that if another significant Hebron
candidate runs, "we will split the vote and have no chance at
all." These issues will likely be settled in quiet family
meetings over the coming weeks.

A Seasoned Politician Plans his Return
--------------


5. (S/NF) Former MP and International Visitor Program (IVP)
participant Nasar al-Qaisi has a different set of concerns.
Al-Qaisi is from a smaller and less influential East Bank
family from the relatively wealthy Madaba area and he won his
seat by virtue of an intensely disciplined and organized
campaign he built around his contacts from his medical
practice. Although his family consists of only around 300
members, he won his heavily populated district with more than
11,000 votes. His campaign in 2007 required the mobilization
of thousands of paid volunteers, the staffing of
sophisticated campaign headquarters in a secret location
outside of his district, and the rental of more than 600
vehicles for election day, highlighting how expensive a
proposition a parliamentary campaign can be. In the absence

AMMAN 00000351 002 OF 002


of an effective party structure, these costs are borne
entirely by the candidate himself, and can easily run into
hundreds of thousands of dollars. (NOTE: Prior to its
dissolution, the salary for members of the lower chamber was
about $3,600 per month. END NOTE.) Unlike most of his
colleagues, Qaisi also operates an efficient and well-funded
constituent services office, largely out of his own pocket.


6. (S/NF) Al-Qaisi stated that he has heard little from the
tight-lipped committee working on a new electoral law,
despite the fact that it has met several times behind closed
doors in recent weeks. Like Jaabari, Al-Qaisi also
anticipates no change to the single vote system, but he says
that his sources believe that the new system could entail a
single vote for a single candidate in each district - but
that these districts could consist of non-contiguous areas.
Districts could then be drawn from multiple dispersed
regions, a procedure that will likely produce accusations of
gerrymandering. (Comment: In discussions with senior-level
Jordanian contacts, the concept of non-contiguous districts
has not been raised and appears to be an unlikely outcome in
the new law. End Comment.)


7. (S/NF) Al-Qaisi stated that he was concerned about the
timing of the election. With the PM's announcement that
elections will take place toward the end of 2010, Al-Qaisi
felt that the Islamic Action Front (IAF) and other Islamists
would gain a considerable tactical advantage on the heels of
the Eid al-Fitr holiday in mid-September. Al-Qaisi indicated
that the Islamists had routinely used the mosques as nerve
centers for their campaign efforts in the past, and that an
election soon after Ramadan would enable Islamist candidates
to make their final push with full coffers drawn from holiday
mosque donations. He felt, however, that much of this
benefit will have dissipated by December. In sum, he
believes moderates would fare better with a later election
date.


8. (S/NF) Al-Qaisi noted with concern the emergence in his
district and elsewhere of what he considered a conservative
"Salafi-like" group known as the "Tahrireen," who are
typically young men distinguished by conservative dress and
attitudes. Although these youth would likely deny the
legitimacy of the electoral process, he predicted that they
could, if galvanized, form a solid voting bloc for Islamist
candidates. He estimated that there were perhaps 5-6,000
"Tahrireen" in his district alone. (NOTE: Post has little
further information on these persons, although young men in
conservative attire are common outside of West Amman. Other
contacts have confirmed the existence of this grouping and
stated that they are more of an informal movement of
alienated Islamist youth rather than a structured
organization. In other countries, however, "Tahrireen" can
refer to supporters of the multinational Hizb al-Tahrir. This
organization is banned in Jordan. END NOTE.)


9. (S/NF) COMMENT. Both men clearly believe that we will see
more continuity than change in the new electoral law, and as
a result, neither of them envision a significantly different
election dynamic. They believe the current electoral system
is likely to survive largely intact and they both underscore
the tremendous personal expense candidates incur during the
elections -- expenses that far exceed their official salaries
as MPs. Both quietly voiced disapproval of the role of the
security services in previous elections, but anticipated the
services will play a similar role in the future. Even
al-Qaisi, who was among the most progressive thinkers in the
old parliament, sees little role for political parties and
shares the common view that Jordanian politics has little to
do with platforms or ideas and everything to do with
patronage and the delivery of government services and
largesse to one's own constituents. END COMMENT.
Beecroft