MEDIA REACTION: U.S. ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000181 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused February 23 news coverage on a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report released recently on an assessment of Taiwan's air defense capability; on the year-end five city and county magistrates' elections; and on Taiwan's improved economic situation. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed piece in the China-focused "Want Daily" provided some new and "atypical" thoughts regarding U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" discussed the DIA report and concluded that Taiwan is in desperate need of "advanced F-16 fighter aircraft or some alternative." End summary. A) "Atypical Thinking about U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan" Professor Alexander Huang from the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University, opined in the China-focused "Want Daily" [circulation: 10,000] (2/23): "... As a matter of fact, Beijing does not necessarily have to protest against U.S. arms sales to Taiwan anymore, because the paradigm shift in international relations has gradually started, and new, atypical thinking about the three pairs of bilateral relationships between Washington, Beijing and Taipei can thus be developed: U.S. arms sales to Taiwan did not hinder the rise of mainland China. The past three decades in which the economic and military power of mainland China have risen rapidly were exactly the three decades following the establishment of diplomatic ties between the United States and China, during which Beijing has determined that the arms sales issue remained unresolved. Yet the power and energy of Beijing's advancement of its comprehensive national strength had not been decreased because of these arms sales. "Second, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan did not slow down the pace and extent of exchanges across the Taiwan Strait. ... Third, U.S. arms sales have never resulted in Beijing losing its military deterrence capabilities against Taiwan. The arms Washington sold to Taiwan were basically aimed at maintaining the island's minimum needs for military modernization and were mainly of a defensive nature. Beijing has never lost the efficacy of its military threats against Taiwan and thereby failing in its military policy means and deterrence capabilities just because Taiwan has purchased certain armaments from the United States. Last, the military items that Taiwan purchased from the United States were not necessarily used just to cope with mainland China. ... In other words, the chances for various countries' national defense armies to fight against each other will be smaller than these armies working together in joint combat against cross-border, international public enemies; or to put in it a simpler way, in the future, the chances of fighting 'evildoers' will be higher than battling 'enemies.' Judging from a positive and atypical perspective, the probability for armies from both sides of the Taiwan Strait to fight against each other will be much smaller than them working together to jointly fight crime and public enemies. ..." B) "Without Birds, Arms Sales Is Theater" The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (2/23): "If anyone had doubts about Taiwan's ability to defend itself, a report released by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) recently is sure to turn those into nightmares. ... The report's message is therefore loud and clear, if not self-evident: Taiwan will need, soon, advanced fighter aircraft in sufficient quantity to consolidate one of the principal pillars in its defense strategy: denying its airspace to the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). ... Aside from hardening hangars and the ability to quickly repair runways, Taiwan's airbases rely mostly on PAC-2 and PAC-3 missile interceptors for protection against a missile attack. Not only are the missiles costly (about US$9 million each),but the two-to-one ratio to ensure the interception of an incoming SRBM makes it doubly so. Still, the bulk of US arms sales intended for Taiwan in recent years -- at least in dollar terms -- consists of such missiles. The PAC-3 missile fire units and 330 missiles approved by the US government in 2008 are scheduled for delivery in August 2014. That is more than four years from now, a period during which the 2nd Artillery and the PLAAF will continue to widen the military imbalance in the Taiwan Strait. "The expensive PAC-3 sales make sense only if they are intended to protect systems that are critical to Taiwan's defense. Aside from command-and-control, those systems are the Air Force. This means that absent substantial investments in the modernization of its fleet of aircraft -- more advanced F-16s or some alternative -- Taiwan would be spending billions of dollars on a missile defense system that, in the end, would be close to worthless. Washington didn't need the DIA report to know this, and yet it continues to stall requests for F-16s. Should it continue to do this, it could be accused of selling an old lady a prohibitively expensive baseball bat to protect herself against a squad of Mafiosi equipped with tanks and machine guns. Taiwan needs birds. Without them, everything else is theater." STANTON