ETHIOPIA: PM MELES-CODELS TALK FRANKLY ABOUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000387 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM MOPS ECON EINV EAGR SO AF ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PM MELES-CODELS TALK FRANKLY ABOUT DEMOCRACY, ECONOMICS, MORE ADDIS ABAB 00000387 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Members of Codels Durbin and Meeks asked PM Meles on February 17 about the status of Ethiopia's democracy, prospects for food self-sufficiency, differences between Chinese and U.S. approaches to economic assistance and investment, the high numbers of Ethiopian medical professionals who have relocated to the U.S., and security challenges on the Somalia border. Meles straightforwardly replied that Ethiopia's 90-plus opposition parties demonstrate a lack of a coherent opposition and hence the immaturity of its democracy; that Ethiopia cannot develop its agricultural resources without massive foreign input; that China's influence in Ethiopia is growing dramatically because China offers serious assistance in building infrastructure; that Ethiopia is trying to retain its primary care medical professionals rather than the specialists who find better offers overseas; and that Ethiopia combines strong defensive measures with religious and ethnic tolerance in an effort to keep religious extremists at bay along the Somalia border. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Codels Durbin and Meeks met jointly with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi for 90 minutes on February 17 in his Addis Ababa office. Four members of Congress joined Charge John Yates in the meeting: Senator Dick Durbin, Senator Sherrod Brown, Congressman Gregory Meeks, and Congressman Melvin Watt. Gebretensae Gebremichael, senior advisor to the PM, also participated as did P/E counselor. Meles: Elections Pose Threat to Constitutional Order -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Noting the vibrant two-party system in the U.S., Congressman Watt asked after the state of Ethiopia's democratic development. The PM replied that "multiparty democracy is a work-in-progress in Ethiopia." He said the existence of 90-plus opposition parties is not a sign of strength but of extreme divisions within a political class that is still at an early stage of its evolution. He alleged that a key difference between Ethiopian and American politics is that some of the opposition parties in Ethiopia oppose the Constitution and, if elected, would work to change it in fundamental ways. As a result, he added, "political debate in Ethiopia is more heated and the outcome of elections is more far-reaching than in the U.S." Notwithstanding these difficulties in engagement between the parties, he concluded, "we are moving the right direction." Ethiopia Trying to Hold the Line on Food Insecurity -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Congressman Watt asked why Ethiopia cannot replicate its great success in growing and exporting coffee in order to support its people with a vibrant agricultural sector. Meles replied that Ethiopia's record in this regard was a qualified success in that its population has doubled since the 1980s but the number of food insecure people has not changed. He said the southwest of the country has been receiving adequate rain and has greatly increased productivity by use of improved seeds and other modernizations whereas other areas have not received adequate rain in recent years and that's where the problem of food insecurity is acute. He said massive investment in these "environmentally degraded" areas is needed, adding that "the international donor community has not been as forthcoming as we had hoped, although the Obama initiative has us hoping again." China: Hard to Beat Free Money, But U.S. Investors Welcome to Try -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Senator Durbin asked the PM about Ethiopia's economic relations with China and whether there were concerns about long-term impacts of relying heavily on Chinese largesse. Congressman Meeks asked whether the Chinese model has included capacity building and job-creation for Ethiopia. Meles replied that "China is alone in doing infrastructure work in Africa and people feel they have no choice" but to accept China's outreach. He said China has extended $1.5 ADDIS ABAB 00000387 002.2 OF 002 billion in credit for expansion of Ethiopia's telecom network and extended billions more in credit for construction of roads. He acknowledged that terms of these soft loans usually include provisions that Chinese companies will do much of the work involved but justified the arrangements on the grounds that "they are prepared to come up with the money whereas western donors have opted out of infrastructure," adding that Chinese companies would win most contracts even if openly tendered because "they do quality work cheap." ¶6. (SBU) Beyond infrastructure projects, Meles said China also is intensifying private investment in Ethiopia. He sees this investment as the logical consequence of growing incomes in China that are making labor-intensive manufacturing unprofitable. He expects the relocation factories, many of them western-owned, from China to Africa to continue. He said Ethiopia would prefer to diversify its business-partners and pointed to rapidly increasing Indian investment as well. Nevertheless he admitted to concerns about overreliance on China and the disproportionate involvement of Chinese labor in Chinese-financed projects, a concern he said he shared with leaders across Africa. He said China had been somewhat responsive to these concerns and has begun to arrange training of Ethiopian workers through vocational colleges. In the longer term, Meles expects market forces to compel China to hire more Ethiopian workers. ¶7. (SBU) PM Meles urged the visiting Codel members to look at Ethiopia, and Africa generally, as an emerging market in the sense that India was 20 years ago. He said China and India today see the same problems with corruption and other obstacles that U.S. investors see, yet Indians and Chinese invest whereas the west does not. He explained this difference in investor perspective as the result of experience with Chinese and Indians less risk averse because their own national stories demonstrate that these obstacles to not preclude serious profit. He asked the visitors to help change the perception of Africa from ONE of a basket case to an emerging economy worthy of the leveraging of investment resources. Ethiopia Resigned to Poaching of Medical Professionals -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Senator Brown raised the fact that the Washington, D.C. area has 2,500 ethnic Ethiopian physicians and that the U.S. has more ethnic Nigerian doctors than African American doctors. He asked the PM what we should do to address this effective subsidization of U.S. medical care by Ethiopia. Meles was familiar with the situation and said his pragmatic approach to the problem started with a realization that 80 percent of Ethiopia's most acute health-care cases involve preventable diseases treatable by primary care physicians rather than the specialists more likely to emigrate. He said legal tools such as withholding diplomas pending completion of required public service help mitigate the worst effects of the doctor drain but added that Ethiopia has no real choice but to train more physicians than needed in the hope that an adequate number will remain in Ethiopia. Somalia: Ethiopia Using Carrots and Sticks Along the Border -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Senator Durbin raised Somalia, asking Meles how Ethiopia approached the danger of fundamentalists trying to gain a foothold in Ethiopia by playing on the ethnic and religious associations of refugees and the cross-border population. The PM replied that Ethiopia has in place substantial defensive measures along the border and remains vigilant 24 hours a day. Regarding Ethiopia's indigenous Somali population, Meles said his government's policy is to let the people use their own languages and courts and to implement infrastructure improvements that will help foster a sense of connectedness to Ethiopia. MUSHINGI