PM MELES URGES U.S. TO PLAY STRONGER LEADERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000365 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2020 TAGS: PREL MASS MARR SO SU ET SUBJECT: PM MELES URGES U.S. TO PLAY STRONGER LEADERSHIP ROLE ON SUDAN Classified By: CDA John Yates for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) With few exceptions, Meles conveyed to visting AFRICOM Commander General Ward what has become his standard message on regional security: First, Sudan is the greatest threat to stability on the continent, and civil war there is Ethiopia's "nightmare scenario." Second, although al-Shabaab is weakened, Sheikh Sharif's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is Somalia's only hope, and is in desperate need of support. Meles urged the U.S. to play a stronger leadership role in Sudan, follow the road map established by the African Union, and encourage other international partners to play a supporting role. He told Ward the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is developing an accountability mechanism to boost donor confidence that donations to the TFG will be used as they were intended to be, and said IGAD is encouraging all donors to provide support directly to the TFG. Meles told Ward he appreciated the U.S.'s continued cooperation on security issues, and specifically thanked him for AFRICOM assistance after the crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 409. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Visiting AFRICOM Commander General William Ward met with Prime Minister Meles Zenawi on February 9 for 60 minutes. Meles was joined by Special Assistant Gebretensae Gebremichael. The U.S. was also represented by Charge John Yates, U.S. Defense Attache Col. Bradley Anderson, and PolOff Skye Justice (notetaker). Appreciation for Strong Security Cooperation -------------- ¶3. (C) General Ward opened the meeting by expressing pleasure with the strong security cooperation between the U.S. and Ethiopia, thanking Meles for his assistance moving forward on 1206 programs, and expressing condolences over the loss of many Ethiopians on Ethiopian Airlines flight 409. Meles told Ward Ethiopia was grateful not only for planned assistance, but also for unplanned assistance, as in the case of flight ¶409. He said he appreciated the open communication the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) enjoyed with the U.S. regarding security matters, which helped the Ethiopian military function more effectively, and helped the two countries work more effectively together. Meles Urges U.S. to Play Stronger Role on Sudan -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Asked by Ward to share his analysis of the way forward in Somalia and Sudan, Meles said: "The one that gives me nightmares is Sudan." Sudan "could realistically blow up within a year," he said, "and if it does, its impact will be many times bigger than Somalia." Reiterating what has become a standard theme, Meles stressed Sudan's history of extremism and jihadism, and strong impact on stability across the African continent. A peaceful divorce between north and south must be engineered before the 2011 referendum, Meles said, and tensions in Darfur and the east cannot be ignored. He added that beyond merely accepting southern independence, Khartoum must work with Juba to resolve resource, citizenship, and boundary issues before 2011. ¶5. (C) Meles strongly urged the U.S. to take a more aggressive stance leading the way forward in Sudan. Using a medical analogy, Meles said "there are too many doctors in the operating theater" that is Sudan, and "someone needs to be the lead surgeon." The U.S. must play a strong leadership role as it did with the CPA, he said, with other international partners "chipping in as needed." Meles added, "Every African's nightmare scenario is civil war in Sudan, and the U.S. should treat it as such." Asked by General Ward what resources were most needed to ensure peace in Sudan, Meles said the military and financial cost will be low so long as problems are addressed before a crisis. However, coordinating international partners will require major diplomatic resources, as the U.S. must tell other countries active in Sudan to step aside as the U.S. takes a more prominent role. Meles further urged the U.S. to move forward using the action plan set out by the African Union, adding that African leaders were fully supportive of that plan. ADDIS ABAB 00000365 002 OF 002 Somalia is Less Worrisome, but TFG Needs Support -------------- --- ¶6. (C) Describing Somalia as "a known quantity" less worrisome than Sudan, Meles assessed that al-Shabaab had become more and more politically isolated, and had been hurt by the occupation of its "heartland" by moderate Islamist groups. Al-Shabaab's leaders are increasingly foreign, he said, and no longer have strong clan connections. The positive side of this is that weakened ties will make it easier to defeat al-Shabaab militarily, Meles said, while the negative side is that a group promoting an international extremist agenda will neither respect the will of the Somali people nor act with their best interests in mind. ¶7. (C) Meles reiterated the TFG's need for financial support, and criticized donors other than the U.S. for not responding to this need. He assessed that many Gulf states were not pleased to see moderate Muslims in Somalia allied with non-Muslims to fight against extremist Muslims they support, and were "neutral at best, and at worst working against peace in Somalia." Meles said Egypt was uncomfortable with the TFG's relationship with Ethiopia and Kenya, but the root of this discomfort was the Nile rather than conditions in Somalia. He assessed that the Saudis were waiting to see whether the TFG remains in power, but would eventually support it. ¶8. (C) Meles strongly criticized European nations for funding international and non-governmental organizations with massive overhead, and relayed that he had told Spanish Premier Jose Luis Zapatero "the cost of corruption in the TFG can't possibly be as costly" as NGOs. He noted that the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) was developing an accountability mechanism with the TFG to give donors assure donors that funds they provide to the TFG would be used for the purposes for which they were intended. IGAD foreign ministers plan to travel to Europe in the near future to make the case for direct funding of the TFG, Meles said, and the decision by the TFG to hire an international accounting firm to monitor accountability should boost donor confidence. YATES