ETHIOPIAN OPPOSITION LEADERS VOICE CONCERNS ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000328

SIPDIS

NSC FOR MGAVIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2020
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN OPPOSITION LEADERS VOICE CONCERNS ABOUT
ELECTION PROCESS TO U/S OTERO

Classified By: Under CDA John Yates for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Leaders of the opposition Forum for Justice and
Democratic Dialogue (Forum) coalition told Under Secretary of
State for Democracy and Global Affairs Maria Otero they had
little confidence that Ethiopia's May election will be free
or fair, and complained that their party activists are being
harassed and imprisoned. The foreign relations head of the
All Ethiopia Unity Party (AEUP),which helped draft the
recently enacted electoral Code of Conduct (CoC),shared this
lack of confidence in the election process but added that his
party has had a reasonably positive experience working with
the ruling party through the mechanisms established by the
CoC.


2. (C) The opposition leaders urged the U.S. to publicly
condemn what they viewed as a closing of political space in
Ethiopia and to privately push the Government of Ethiopia
(GoE) to address this issue. U/S Otero replied that the U.S.
recognizes that political space in Ethiopia has become
increasingly restricted and assured them that the U.S. would
continue to press the GoE to ensure a truly free and
transparent election, adding that senior USG officials were
watching Ethiopia closely. Otero further encouraged the
group to provide specific examples of harassment and
intimidation of opposition candidates that the U.S. and
international community could raise with the GoE. End
summary.


3. (SBU) Visiting Under Secretary of State for Democracy and
Global Affairs Maria Otero met with opposition leaders on
February 1 for 60 minutes. The Forum coalition was
represented by three senior leaders: Bulcha Demeksa, Member
of Parliament, Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM)
Chairman, Forum Co-Chair; Beyene Petros, Member of
Parliament, United Ethiopian Democratic Force (UEDF)
Chairman, Forum Co-Chair; Seeye Abraha, Unity for Democracy
and Justice (UDJ) Vice Chairman, Forum Co-Chair. Yaicob
Like, All Ethiopia Unity Party (AEUP) Foreign Relations
Chair, also participated. The U.S. was also represented by
NSC Senior Director for African Affairs Michelle Gavin, DCM
Tulinabo Mushingi, Pol/Econ Chief Kirk McBride, Otero Special
Advisor Nicole Goldin, Otero Special Assistant Caroline
Mauldin, and PolOff Skye Justice (notetaker).

Forum Leaders Share Grim Election Outlook
--------------


4. (C) Bulcha Demeksa, of the Forum, told U/S Otero that
several of his party's candidates had been recently detained
by authorities, despite GoE claims that there are no
political prisoners in Ethiopia. The GoE will hold an
election in name only, he said, and there is no excitement
surrounding the election because everyone knows the status
quo will not change. Bulcha said "foreign observers should
have arrived two months ago," and criticized the European
Union and African Union for yielding to GoE demands that they
come later than originally scheduled. The Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has officials and
informants from senior ranks of government all the way down
to the family level, he said, and the people are afraid to
challenge the ruling party. Bulcha criticized the recently
enacted CoC as protecting the rights of only certain
political parties, and said the Forum would prefer that only
the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) govern the
electoral process, rather than the structure established by
the CoC. (Comment: The AEUP decision to engage the EPRDF
and sign the CoC generated considerable animosity between its
leaders and those of the Forum. This tension was evident
during U/S Otero's meeting, as in Bulcha's comment on the
Forum's disdain for the CoC, but the parties remained cordial
throughout. End comment.)


5. (C) Seeye Abraha, also representing the Forum, noted the
continued imprisonment of his UDJ party chairwoman Birtukan
Midekssa, and expressed regret that "while the government
purports to promote women's rights, it treats women who
actually speak out for their rights with extraordinary
brutality." He acknowledged that Ethiopia is one of the most

ADDIS ABAB 00000328 002 OF 003


stable countries in the Horn of Africa, but stressed that
"security without democracy is not sustainable." Seeye said
holding an election in the absence of respect for human
rights, the rule of law, freedom of the press, and freedom of
movement - as he assessed was the case in Ethiopia - is
meaningless.


6. (C) Beyene Petros, also of the Forum, said the GoE's
promises to engage in free, democratic discourse have been
revealed as meaningless. In 2005, "the door was opened
slightly, but has since been slammed shut." After that
election, Beyene said, the GoE systematically enacted laws
and restrictive parliamentary procedures, such as drastically
reducing time limits for member presentations. Procedurally,
he added, the EPRDF has made dialogue impossible. "My
constituents paid dearly to get me elected," Beyene said,
"and what to I give them back? Nothing. I cannot even speak
on their behalf."


7. (C) Beyene added that he joined the Forum hoping that the
EPRDF would negotiate on a broad range of electoral issues,
but he has lost hope. The NEBE and public election observers
are not independent, he said, but rather were previously
registered members of the EPRDF. Foreign observers cannot
hope to monitor the entire country, Beyene said, and
opposition parties have insufficient access to the media. He
said "EPRDF cadres in Eastern Wolaita" (Oromia Region) beat
and vandalized the cars of Forum leaders - all senior
parliamentarians - attempting to register candidates
(septel). Beyene described the electoral process as "a
fiasco staged for international consumption," and said the
result would be the same as the 2008 local elections (in
which the ruling party won over 99 percent of contested
seats) unless the GoE makes a dramatic course correction.

AEUP Describes Modest Success with Code of Conduct
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Yaicob Like of AUEP, the largest opposition party to
sign the CoC, had a different perspective. Yaicob said his
party's experience working with the EPRDF under the CoC had
"not been bad." After signing, AEUP submitted a list of 208
political prisoners to the Joint Council of Political Parties
established by the CoC, and 118 of them have since been
released. He added, however, that harassment and
imprisonment of party members has continued. (Comment: When
discussing the complaints his party had registered under the
CoC, Yaicob referred to the Joint Council, EPRDF, and GoE
almost interchangeably. End comment.)


9. (C) According to Yaicob, AEUP's office directors in the
Amhara and Afar regions were recently beaten and imprisoned
by EPRDF supporters and EPRDF-controlled sercurity forces.
He said the EPRDF was cordial in reaction to AEUP complaints
about these incidents but slow to act. As a result of these
experiences, AEUP formed a committee with the Joint
Council/EPRDF to travel to Amhara and investigate specific
cases. He said the EPRDF had acknowledged that 95 percent of
the AEUP complaints were meritorious and the two parties
resolved them on the spot with only two party members in the
region remaining in detention. Yaicob further noted that
while his party has generally received sympathetic responses
to its complaints from senior officials in Addis Ababa, those
responses do not always translate to action outside the
capital.

Forum Leaders Criticize U.S. Reaction to Abuses, Urge Action
-------------- --------------


10. (C) AEUP's Yaicob told Otero and Gavin that given an
opening, the Ethiopian people are ready for change. In the
past, he said, change has come quickly in Ethiopia, and with
little formal organization. The 2005 election should prove
to anyone that change is possible. The AEUP, he said, is
ready to move forward under the CoC, and will hold the EPRDF
to its commitments. The Forum's Beyene expressed concern
with what he perceived as a U.S. message that change does not
come overnight, noting that Ethiopians have been waiting for
change for 35 years. The CoC "is merely window dressing," he
said, and negotiation to date with the opposition has not
been genuine, but undertaken by the EPRDF as the easiest
means to seem cooperative without actually making substantive

ADDIS ABAB 00000328 003 OF 003


concessions.


11. (C) The Forum's Seeye said it was unfortunate that the
world, and the U.S. in particular, were not speaking out
about the abuses of the GoE. He reiterated that the Forum
promotes peaceful change, but noted that other groups in
Ethiopia are willing to overthrow the government by violent
means. By participating in the elections, Seeye said, the
Forum risks exposing its members to the same violent
treatment they received in 2005. He urged the U.S. to
continue pushing Meles to open political space in order to
allow the Ethiopian people to participate in the elections
without fear. He warned that the GoE was interested not in
holding free elections but in legitimizing their rule, and
the U.S. was perceived by the GoE as the main legitimizer.
The Forum's Bulcha acknowledged that the U.S. "can't order a
sovereign state to do anything," but urged the U.S. to take
stronger action, given its status in Ethiopia. "You should
speak out publicly," he said, adding: "People here want to
know what President Obama thinks about Ethiopia. Even now,
we don't know what the Obama administration thinks about our
country."


12. (C) In response, U/S Otero told the assembled opposition
leaders that the U.S. recognized that political space in
Ethiopia was increasingly restricted, and those restrictions
would likely continue until after the election. The Obama
administration is working to open political space in Ethiopia
and all over the world, she said, and our discussion with the
GoE and EPRDF are by no means limited to security. Otero
noted that during a two-hour meeting the U.S. delegation (to
the AU Summit) had held with Prime Minister Meles the
previous day, three-quarters of the discussion had focused on
democracy. She assured the opposition that the U.S. would
continue to press the GoE to open political space, and that
senior State Department and administration officials were
watching Ethiopia closely. Otero encouraged the group to
provide specific examples of harassment and intimidation of
opposition candidates that the U.S. and international
community could raise with the GoE. NSC Africa Director
Gavin quoted President Obama's Accra speech, relaying that
governance is the keystone of U.S.-Africa relations, and
other U.S. interests in Africa cannot be sustained without
good governance.


13. (U) U/S Otero and NSC Director Gavin have cleared this
message.

YATES